说明：以圈钱为目的的空气项目并不在讨论范围之中。这里只讨论真正正在被探索和实验的创新方向，所以提到的所有项目不论成败皆值得尊重。
notes: air projects for money purposes are not under discussion. This is a discussion of innovative directions that are really being explored and tested, so all the projects mentioned deserve respect for success or failure.
区块链到底能干什么?这是一个创业者、投资人、韭菜都想回答，却人人回避的问题。一方面是因为行业还在极度原始的探索期，大部分资源和注意力都集中在技术层面，还有一方面是大家并不愿意承认「看不到方向」，多少会说出几个看似合理的应用场景，但大多数经不起推敲，也没有被验证。所以，这个行业里有很多「国王」，却少有说出真相的「小男孩」，告诉国王他没有穿衣裳。
What does a block chain do? It's a question that entrepreneurs, investors, and pickles want to answer, but everyone avoids it. On the one hand, because the industry is still in the midst of an extremely primitive exploration period, most of its resources and attention are focused on technology, and on the other hand, because people are not willing to admit that they can't see the way, they can say a few of what seems to be a reasonable application, but most of them can't handle it and have not been validated. So, there are many "the Kings" in this industry, but there are few "the little boys" who tell the truth and tell the King that he has no clothes.
还有很多人用「形而上」的回答去规避具体的问题。比如，区块链是一个分布式的账本，去中心化，改变了生产关系。区块链一种自动执行的共识，是信任的机器。区块链的背后就是无政府主义、奥地利学派、哈耶克精神。不得不说，一个普通人听完之后可能觉得不明觉厉，但迷惑更深。而「传道者」自己，也并不完全清楚自己到底在说什么。
There are many other people who use the word "shaped up" to avoid specific questions. For example, the block chain is a distributed ledger, decentralized, changing productive relationships. The block chain is a self-executing consensus, a trusting machine. Behind the block chain is the anarchism, the Austrian school of thought, and the spirit of Hayek.
区块链已经发展到了这样一个地步，就是再耀眼的技术创新也无法合理化没有应用场景这件事了。是的，目前公链依然是行业最关注、投入资源最多的方向，但问题是，这个世界上不需要这么多公链，更不需要每一个公链都去孤立地解决扩容，共识，安全这些每一项都还在学术创新阶段的问题。我们的希望不是去***地提高 TPS，或改变不可能三角，而是解决真实的问题。
The block chain has developed to the point where no more dramatic technological innovation can be rationalized without the application of the scene. Yes, the public chain is still the most focused and resource-intensive direction of the industry, but the problem is that the world does not need so many public chains, much less each one of them to solve in isolation the problems of expansion, consensus, and security, all of which are still at the stage of academic innovation. Our hope is not to *** upgrade the TPS, or change the impossibility of a triangle, but rather to solve real problems.
所以区块链到底能干什么?诚实地说，答案是还不知道。
So what does the block chain do? Honestly, the answer is not yet known.
但是，经过一段时间的反复实验和思考，我们积累了一些有潜在探索价值的方向，以及很多失败的案例。从「猜想」到「知道」，间隔的不是发币，不是权威，不是布道，而是试错。为了这些代表着巨大机会的「火苗」，我们鼓励所有人参与讨论，因为这个行业没有权威。所有人都只是小孩子，在一个巨大的游乐场里等待惊喜，也创造惊喜。
However, after a period of repeated experimentation and reflection, we have accumulated a number of potentially exploratory directions, as well as many cases of failure. From "thinking" to "knowing," the interval is not currency, not authority, not sermon, but error. For these "fires" that represent great opportunities, we encourage everyone to participate in the discussion, because the industry has no authority. All are small children, waiting for surprises in a huge playground, and creating surprises.
一. 首先说说已经成立的应用
Let's start with an application that's already in place.
在我看来，至今区块链行业诞生的杀手级应用只有两个半。
It seems to me that so far only two and a half killers have been born in the block chain industry.
***个是比特币。实际上它没能成为一种货币，而变成了电子黄金。为什么比特币没能成为货币呢，有很多人认为是性能问题，使用场景问题，或没有自然通胀的问题，并提出了比特币现金，稳定货币等多种其他解决方案。但实际上，货币天生分两种，商品货币及信用货币。商品货币可以随着交易场景随时产生，但很难长期稳定存在。信用货币背后的价值支撑是什么?是一个国家的永续征税权，它本身是一个国家或发行主体的负债，是远期流动性的贴现。
But, in practice, currencies are two kinds of natural, commodity and credit currencies. Commodity currencies can emerge at any time as the trading scene, but it is difficult to stabilize over time. What is the value behind a credit currency? A country’s permanent tax right, which is itself a country’s or the subject’s liability, is a discount for long-term liquidity.
央行是对商业银行的结算，而什么又是央行间的结算体系呢?黄金。当然，这个含义在布雷顿体系解体前后有显著不同。比特币之所以能成为黄金，某种程度上是因为这种结算体系更容易通过」信仰「而不是主权信用来实现，因为它们都不需要发行者。比特币打破的是结算货币的垄断，也就是准备金的制度。而由于不具有物理性，又会优于黄金。例如，如果现在人类征服了火星，发现火星上到处都是金子，那么黄金就会突然贬值，并且失去价值贮藏和最终结算的地位。
A central bank is a settlement for commercial banks, and what is a settlement system between central banks? Gold. Of course, the meaning is significantly different before and after the break-up of the Bretton Woods system. Bitcoin can become gold, in part because it is easier to do so through faith than sovereign credit, because none of them need issuers. Bitcoin breaks the monopoly of settlement money, that is, the reserve system.
但是比特币还没有成功的地方在哪里呢?比特币的结算体系虽然是去中心化的，但是仍然需要许多「中心」或「中介」去承担其他工作。节点之间的转账可以经由 UTXO 在无中介和无中心的情况下完成，但涉及到存在时滞和收付问题的时候，人们仍然需要通过中介(交易商)来完成交易，⽀付与结算，比如清算联盟，中央银⾏体系，KYC/AML，法律治理框架。不幸的是，这些环节最可能的解决⽅案是中⼼化的，***的结果是市场竞争下的多个中⼼，去中⼼化解决⽅案⼗分遥远。在下⽂我们会继续讨论。
But where has Bitcoin not been successful? Bitcoin’s settlement system, though decentralised, still requires many “centres” or “intermediaries” to take on other jobs. Transfers between nodes can be made through UTXO without intermediaries or centres, but when there are problems with time lags and payments, people still need to do transactions through intermediaries (traders), #12096; payments and settlements, such as liquidation union, central silver #12175; systems, KYC/AML, legal governance framework. Unfortunately, these links are the most likely to solve #12101; case #12092; chemicalization *** results in many central #12092; going to #12092; chemical resolution #12101; case #12055; case #12055; case at a distance #12098; we will continue to discuss.
第二个应用是 Token(通证)，它是一种权益，代表资本市场的运作方式。但它既不是纯粹的货币，也不是纯粹的股票。市场把 Token 分为功能、资产、股权、支付等多种类型，但是本质上无非只有债权和股权这两种区别。通货币本质上是发行者的债权，流通权益是发行者的股权。
The second application is Token, which is an interest that represents the way capital markets operate. It is neither a pure currency nor a mere stock. The market divides Token into functions, assets, equity, payments, etc. But it is essentially a distinction between claims and equity.
Token 的主要问题是，不管是债权还是股权都有一个「不破产」的先决条件，就是发行经济主体的「有用」。不是稀缺性(如总量限定，资本管制)决定了 Token 的价值，而是有了价值才稀缺。大多数项目只是希望***发行 Token 作为铸币税来维持自己的货币体系运营。然而***个假设，也就是未来的流通场景，多半并不存在。那没有流动性，何来铸币税的价值。
The main problem with Token is that there is a "non-insolvency" precondition for both claims and equity, which is the "use" of issuing economic subjects. It is not scarcity (e.g. mass limitation, capital control) that determines the value of Token, but value that is scarce. Most projects simply wish to *** issue Token as a mooring tax to maintain their own monetary system.
通证经济 (token economy)在下文还会继续讲到，这里不赘述。只简单说下为什么我还是肯定 token 这一应用创新。***，Token 的流通或使用场景本身受到了区块链技术发展的限制，所以并非是一个永远无解的问题。第二，Token 的最终形式是 Programmable Money(可编程的钱)，也就是可以通过智能合约定义多维度，并且自动执行流通过程中的游戏规则。所以目前我们看到的 Token 只是因为无法实现复杂的性能，仍然和现实生活中的货币或金融工具没有太大的差别。因此配合 Token 的 ICO 形式也非常原始，尚未利用到 Token 比起传统货币的技术优势。
Token’s circulation or use is itself limited by the technological development of the block chain, so it is not an inexplicable problem. Secondly, Token’s final form is Programmable Money, which defines multiple dimensions through smart contracts and automatically implements the rules of the game in the process. So what we are seeing is that Token is simply unable to achieve complex performances and still does not differ much from real-life monetary or financial instruments.
***半个是加密猫，一种虚拟资产，尤其是不可交换 (non-fungible) 资产，但由于形态是一款游戏，尚未和现实其他场景结合，也没有彻底改变游戏市场，所以我称为半个。这个方向在下文也会再次提到。
*** Half an encrypt cat, a virtual asset, especially a non-exchangeable (non-fundible) asset, but because it is a game that has not yet been combined with other realities and has not completely changed the game market, I call it half. This direction is also mentioned below.
二. 说说区块链「不能做什么」
知道区块链不能做什么非常重要，因为去伪才能存真。从 2013、2014 年开始，就有很多优秀创业者前赴后继地探索着区块链的应用领域。由于技术过于原始，资本也冷清多时，几乎全部在 16 年底的又一波牛市到来之前死掉。 It is important to know what a block chain cannot do, because it can be faked. From 2013 to 2014, many good entrepreneurs have gone to explore the application of the block chain. Because technology is too primitive and capital is cold, almost all die before another wave of cattle arrives at the end of the year. 但是，这些实践在⾏业早期留下了巨⼤的价值。失败原因有最为重要的 2 种，***，是表像地理解区块链的一些特点，比如加密等于隐私。第二是惯性思维地平移传统互联网场景到区块链。然而新的科技往往是为了解决不同层面的问题，比如互联网擅长解决的是「信息」的问题，那区块链应该跳出这个思维。以下是我觉得比较典型的几个问题，目的是启发而不是归纳，不全面的地方望指正： However, these practices in #12175; industry left a huge #12068; value at an early stage. The reasons for failure are two of the most important ***, which is a surface-based understanding of some of the features of the block chain, such as encryption as privacy. Second, the inertial mind-shifting of traditional Internet scenes to block chains. Yet new technologies are often designed to address different aspects of the problem, such as the Internet's ability to solve the problem of "information", which should come out of it. The following are some of the issues that I think are more typical of: 1. 数据源在线下： 1. Data sources online: 区块链世界目前还是现实世界的「平行宇宙」版本。数据上链之后保证了链上数据的真实、透明、不可篡改，但如果数据源本身就是假的呢?几乎所有溯源类项目都面临这个问题。无论是艺术品的流转，还是消费品供应链，实物与区块链上的标签对应这一环节是线下人工来完成的。如果一瓶茅台能用物理方式在瓶子上就能保证是真品，那也就不再需要区块链，如果不能，那区块链并没有方法去抵抗上链环节的信息源验证的作假。 The block chain world is now a parallel universe version of the real world. The data chain is followed by real, transparent and non-manufacturing data on the chain, but what if the source of the data itself is fake? Almost all the retrospective items face this problem. Whether the art flow or the consumer goods supply chain, the physical and the label on the block chain correspond to this link by hand. 除了线下实体，还包括本地化数据。以供应链金融举例，对于制造业、零售业、工业等领域，供应链金融要解决的问题是如何通过明确的账期和下游的还款能力对上游进行授信。这里***的痛点是参与者的信息化程度过低。假设我们可以实时监控和预测供应链上所有的货物，账款的流转，那不管用不用区块链，都可以由某个第三方，如银行对供应商进行授信。但如果没有，那首先要解决的问题是信息化，比如教育供应链的每个环节用互联网工具去记录，传输真实数据，还要打通整个行业的信息系统。这是一个漫长而艰难的过程，首先是一个打通行业的数据库，其次才是供应链金融。 In the case of supply chain finance, for example, the problem of supply chain finance is how to trust upstream through a clear accounting period and downstream repayment capacity. *** The pain point here is the low degree of informatization of participants. Assuming that we can monitor and predict in real time all goods in the supply chain, the flow of accounts, regardless of whether or not a block chain is used, can be trusted by a third party, such as a bank, to a supplier. But if not, the first problem is informatization, such as using Internet tools to record every link in the education supply chain, to transmit real data, and to access the entire industry’s information system. This is a long and difficult process, starting with a database that connects the industry, followed by supply chain finance. 我们自己之前尝试孵化过的一个场景是 P2P 金融里的征信数据共享问题。以同盾科技为例，不同的 P2P 公司需要向第三方征信平台有偿或无偿地提供自己的白名单黑名单，换来共享行业白名单黑名单查询。区块链在 2 个方面可以对这个商业模式进行极大改进，***是加密，因为数据的原始交换就意味着除了进入黑产，没有更好的变现方式。所谓的加密，从最简单的哈希查表到复杂的可信计算，都是不同程度的潜在解决方案。第二是激励机制，数据作为 P2P 公司最重要的资产，如果没有合理的经济机制去刺激，结果就是头部公司并不愿意贡献数据，愿意贡献数据的小公司数据体量小，质量低，也没有太大价值。 One of the scenes that we have tried to incubate ourselves is the sharing of credit data in P2P finance. For example, different P2P companies need to provide their own blacklists to third-party credit platforms, whether paid or not, in exchange for sharing industry blacklist queries. The block chain can greatly improve this business model in two ways *** because the original exchange of data means that there is no better way to cash in than black. The so-called encryption, from the simplest Hashicha scale to complex and credible calculations, is a different potential solution. Second, the incentive mechanism, the most important asset of P2P companies, without a reasonable economic mechanism to stimulate it, is the unwillingness of head companies to contribute data, and the small companies that are willing to contribute data are small in size, of low quality and of little value. 然而这个场景***无法完成商业闭环，原因是无法解决金融数据上链的作假问题，比如为了抢夺优质客户，P2P 公司在行业早期经常将白名单作为黑名单提供给征信公司。除非强监管，否则就算引入各种惩罚博弈机制，这都是一个无解的问题。 However, this scenario*** has not been able to complete the business closure because it has not been possible to solve the problem of counterfeiting the financial data chain, such as the use of white lists as blacklists by P2P companies in the early days of the industry in order to steal high-quality customers. The introduction of various mechanisms to punish games and games, unless well-regulated, is an inexplicable problem. 还记得《三体》里不会说谎的三体民族吗?三体人通过完全开放的思维用电磁波进行沟通，效率和电路系统没有什么区别，天生就是计算机+区块链的组合。可是，如果地球人不会说谎，就无法拖延与三体文明博弈的时间，所以未尝不是一种天赋。区块链能解决信息透明不可篡改，但前提是人有理由去这样做，而且是所有人。 Do you remember that three peoples who do not lie in the Three Bodies? Three people communicate with an electromagnetic wave through a completely open mind, with efficiency and circuit systems no different, and are born as a combination of computer + block chains. But, if the Earth's people don't lie, they can't delay playing with three bodies of civilization, so it's not a gift. 2. 去中心化并不带来价值： 去中心化与去中介化已经成了一种新的宗教信仰，然而去中心化不管作为组织形态，还是行业商业模式，都不是万灵药，不然人类组织又如何从部落制进化到以国家为载体的大型政权制度。 De-centralization and de-intermediation have become a new religion, yet de-centralization is not a panacea, either as a form of organization or as a business model, or how human organizations have evolved from tribal to large-scale State-carried regimes. 作为一个数据库，去中心化一定是比中心化低效的。所以正确的问题并不是如何在各个场景去中心化，而是在什么样的场景下，分布式系统所带来的价值提升远远大于对效率的牺牲。比如比特币，在全球经济衰退，各国货币政策混乱的今天，比起转账效率低下，你更在乎的是对于自己财产保护的权利。 As a database, decentralization must be less effective than centralization. So the right question is not how to centralize the scenes, but what kind of scene is the distributional system’s value-added much greater than the sacrifice on efficiency. 反之，如果中心或中介本身就承担了非常重要的价值，那去中心化的结果就是这种成本会最终转嫁到消费者身上。比如视频，直播⾏业需要⼤量集约化的带宽投入和维护成本，并且⻓期处于补贴⽤户，购买内容的烧钱阶段;比如电商，房地产中介都是重服务的中介⾏业，去中⼼只会让消费者⾯临⾼违约成本;再比如去中⼼化的 uber，去中⼼化的 airbnb—就算抛开获客成本，我还没有看到这些系统如何代替 uber 去做需要⼤量数据⽀撑的机器学习，算法优化，更不要说对⽆⼈驾驶等⾼⻔槛⾏业的研发与投资。 Conversely, if the centre or intermediary itself assumes a very important value, the result of decentralization would be that the cost would ultimately be passed on to the consumer. Videos, for example, live broadcasts #12175; industry needs #12068; mass-intensive bandwidth input and maintenance costs, and #11987; period in subsidized #12132; households, purchase of content, for example, power suppliers, real estate intermediaries are heavy service intermediaries #12175; industries, middle #12092; consumers #1207; P#1220; default costs, for example #1292; uber, for example, go #12092; chemicalized airbnb& mdash; I have not yet seen how these systems can replace uber for needs #12068; quantitative data #12096; machine learning, optimization, not to say #12102; driving #1240; driving #1220; #188; #175; research and development and investment. 虽然不能说联盟链是伪需求，但多数情况下联盟链与 SaaS 软件并无不同。如果联盟链的需求是真实存在的，比如上文提到的 P2P 行业征信联盟，那它一般还是有一个中心化的发起方，***的效率和价值可能还不如一个中心化的数据库。比如国家强制性地在互金领域推出了百行征信，也可以是一个联盟链，因为无非是一种数据库结构而已。既然节点的许可是中心化的，那它就只是一个有管理权限编辑功能的数据库软件，并且也确实由中心化强监管带来了更高的效率。 While it cannot be said that the union chain is a false demand, in most cases the union chain is not different from the SaaS software. If the demand for the union chain is real, for example, the P2P industry letters alliance mentioned above, it generally has a central sponsor *** whose efficiency and value may not be as much as that of a centralized database. 人类历史上对强权，垄断，阶级的挑战，往往换来的是另一种形式的新的中心。一个中心化的公司定义着去中心化的规则，掌握着基金会的代币，并且希望竞争者都来加入这个网络，这本身就是一件很矛盾事情。 The challenge to power, monopolization, class in human history is often replaced by another form of new centre. A centralized company defines the rules of decentralisation, holds the foundation’s tokens, and wants competitors to join the network, which is in itself a paradox. 3. 中心化积分： 3. Centralized integral: 盲目去中心化的反面，就是直接发行中心化积分。我曾经在一个群里问过问题「Token 和积分的区别到底是什么?」回答众说纷纭：有人说是复合权益和单一权益的区别，有人说是中心化程度，有人说是可跨域流通，有人说是有无锚定价值，但这些角度十分片面，并可随意举出反例。有一个相对比较接近也比较客观的说法是：「积分是资本管制+货币自主权下的货币，Token 是资本自由流动+货币自主权下的货币」。 The opposite of blind centralization is the direct distribution of centralized credits. I asked questions in a group, "What is the difference between Token and the score?" The answer was mixed: some say it is the difference between composite and single interests, others say it is central, some say it is trans-boundary, some say it is anchored, but some say it is one-sided, and one can cite the opposite at random. A relatively close and objective term is, "The score is a currency under capital control plus monetary autonomy, and Token is a currency under free capital movement plus monetary autonomy". 所以，「币改」是一个从诞生开始就注定荒谬的概念。典型的币改方向有资产证券化，权益发行，氪金游戏货币，行为奖励机制等，但 99% 的设计本质依然是有二级市场定价的中心化发行积分。由于设计方是围绕一个公司的资产和商业闭环设计代币，就免不了***会变成一种中心化积分，类似传统的 Q 币、公交卡、月饼券。 So, "currency change" is an absurd concept from birth onwards. The typical currency shift is asset securitization, equity distribution, kryptonite currency, behavioral incentives, etc. But 99% of the design is still based on the centralization of secondary market pricing. 那为什么在区块链出现之前积分没有这么神通广大呢?因为有监管，有法律。以线下商超的会员积分为例，积分法严格禁止积分返现，以及与其他商超的相互兑换。换句话说，不允许你具有货币的属性。所以，简单地把现实生活中存在的积分体系平移到区块链上，就算落地了，***也会被监管封杀，没有什么太大的价值。 So why is it not so good to have points before the block chain emerges? There is regulation, there is law. There is an example of a trade-under-the-line super-membership, and the counting method strictly prohibits the return of points, as well as exchange with other businesses. In other words, you are not allowed to have monetary attributes. So, simply move the system of points that exists in real life down to the block chain, and if it falls, *** it will be blocked by supervision, and there will be little value in it. 「享物说」几乎是 2018 年互联网圈最火的项目之一，不到一年累计融资超过 1 亿美金，用户 2000 万，日活 100 万。它以以物易物的二手交易为场景，天然地创造了自己的「货币」小红花，一个中心化积分。每个用户入场赠送 300 个小红花，马上可以兑换二手商品，而获得更多小红花的方式就是自己上传待售二手商品。我们大概在 1 月份就关注到这个项目，因为中心化积分的问题是发行的不透明，就像所有具有货币体系的游戏一样，***几乎无一例外地面临超额通货膨胀带来的货币体系崩溃，所以与区块链有结合的空间。 Almost one of the hottest projects in the Internet ring in 2018, with a cumulative financing of over $100 million in less than a year and a user of 20 million, living a day of 1 million. It has created its own "money" small saffron, a centralized score, on the scene of easy-to-trade transactions. Each user gives 300 small saffrons, which can be exchanged immediately for second-hand goods, and obtains more small saffrons by uploading them on its own. In January, we were concerned about the project, because the central issue of the calculus was not transparent, just like all games with a monetary system *** and there is almost no single field facing the collapse of the monetary system caused by hyperinflation, so there is room for integration with the chain. 但是为什么我们***认为这个团队很聪明地没有跟区块链扯上关系呢?因为***，中心化积分在市场增长阶段可以利用通货膨胀大大降低获客成本。比如新用户入场的 300 个小红花可以是直接增发的。除了广告之外，公司资本可以通过直接消耗货币来控制「小红花」的购买力，从而影响用户体验。第二，小红花如果长期作为以物易物场景下的货币，不透明反而比透明好。货币市场与股票市场特征是相反的，股票市场的本质是风险共担，因此有效市场要求信息对称来承担价值发现。而货币市场的天然不透明有时还会加强市场流动性，因为这样才能在不明确货币抵押物价值的前提下继续使用货币。所以，既然不透明，非理性对这个商业模式是好的，那为什么一定要上链呢? But why do we *** think that this team is smart enough not to relate to block chains? Because *** Centralized credits can significantly reduce client costs by using inflation at the stage of market growth. For example, 300 small saffrons for new users can be directly added. In addition to advertising, corporate capital can control the purchasing power of Saffron by directly consuming money, thereby affecting the user’s experience. ***，就是各种「xx 即挖矿」的行为奖励模式。行为奖励挖矿这个方向其实是我个人很感兴趣的一个方向，但是它远不应该是今天的形态。今天我们看到的 xx 即挖矿，更多只是一种高级的空投形式，是在玩流量的游戏，是一种市场营销。 *** It's a pattern of incentives for all kinds of "xx or mining." The orientation of behaviour incentives is actually one of my personal interest, but it's far from what it is today. What we see today is mining, more of an advanced form of airdrop, a traffic game, a marketing exercise. 4. 没有链上资产，先有平台： 4. Without chain assets, there is a platform: 在区块链世界里最不缺的就是各种「平台」。平台在设计上会具有完整的商业闭环，并且有 Token Economy 加持，期待我只做」生态「，鸡和蛋都自动找上门。 The most important thing in the block chain world is the various "platforms." The platform will be designed to have a complete commercial closure, with Token Economy holding, expecting me to do only "ecology," and chickens and eggs will automatically come to the door. 比如以 COCOS 为代表的游戏分发、dApp 分发平台，也就是区块链世界里的 Steam 或 App Store。平台模式风险比较大的一点是，既不能早也不能晚。晚了，竞争者众。早了，用户需求太小，需要持续烧钱。项目方可以用大笔融资去孵化 dApp，但同时增加了额外的投资风险。已经天然有流量的产品，比如钱包是更合理的 dApp 分发入口，因为他们只需要静静等待市场增长，不需要额外的用户获取成本。但是就目前的 dApp 链上数据来看，活跃度相比起金融交易依然非常惨淡。 For example, the games that are represented by COCOS are distributed, dApp distribution platforms, i.e., the Stepam or App Street in the block chain world. The platform model is more risky, either sooner or later. Lately, the competition is popular. Early, the user demand is too small to keep burning money. Project parties can use large amounts of financing to incubate dApp, but at the same time increase the risk of additional investment. Products that already have natural flows, such as wallets, are more rational dApp distribution portals, because they simply have to wait quietly for market growth and do not need additional user fees. But, in terms of data on the current dApp chain, activity is still very low compared to financial transactions. 另一类平台是虚拟资产交易平台，如 openSea，理念是将 non-fungible 类型虚拟资产都放在一个平台上，每个虚拟资产都***，各不相同。面临的问题有两个，一是 cryptokittens 这样的资产生产者如果不希望游戏外部有交易市场，可以在智能合约里进行限定，比如 openSea 上线后遭到了各游戏开发者的抵制。第二就是如果虚拟资产这个概念还没有很深入人心，那虚拟资产的淘宝这个概念也就自然不存在了。 Another type of platform is a virtual asset-trading platform, such as OpenSea, whose idea is that no-fungible types of virtual assets are placed on one platform, with every virtual asset *** different. The problem is two: cryptokittens, an asset producer like that who does not want a trading market outside the game, can be qualified in an intelligent contract, for example, when the openSea is online, which is resisted by all game developers. Second, if the concept of virtual assets is not well-populated, then the concept of a treasure of virtual assets will naturally disappear. 为了解决用户量这个问题，有的项目方用了另外一种方式，就是先去做一两个用户体验较好的中心化游戏，再从前端倒推到后端的区块链结合创新，比如号称用户量百万的哈希世界。由于哈希的很多资产最开始根本就是中心化的存储和发行，所以受到了行业的一些质疑挑战，但如果真的上链了，又将面临用户体验差，门槛高的问题。 In order to solve the problem of user numbers, some projects have used a different approach: to do one or two user-friendly games, and then to go back to the back end of the block chain to combine innovation, for example, the Hashi World, which is known as the million-dollar user. Because many of Hashi’s assets are initially essentially centralized storage and distribution, they are challenged by industry questions, but if they are actually connected, they will face poor user experience and high threshold problems. 区块链行业***的「平台」其实就是公链，而公链互相竞争的生态资源就是 dApp。星云链当年用了大量的代币奖励 dApp 开发者，成了全世界 dApp 数量最多的公链，但大部分是薅羊毛之作。所以我们需要那么多的公链吗?我有什么样的动力去使用一个公链?会不会有一天，公链比 dApp 还多，比应用场景还多? The " platform" *** of the block chain industry is actually the public chain, and the ecological resource of the public chain is the dapp. The nebula chain used a lot of money to reward dapp developers, making it the largest number of dapps in the world, but most of them were made of wool. So we need so many public chains? What incentive do I have to use a public chain? 总的来说「区块链行业目前最核心的问题，是无法被用户市场验证，或者说验证周期过长。互联网行业再聪明的创业者，再幸运的方向，也要经过数次 pivot，才能找准真实的需求。 In general, "the most central problem in the block chain industry is that it cannot be validated by the user market, or that the certification cycle is too long. 而区块链创业者，往往从上帝视角创造，不知不觉变成了 to VC 模式，而且由于过早地分散了 token，基本没有迭代的可能，只能等着高成本的分叉。靠谱的公链项目几个亿美金估值起，开发周期和锁定周期都是两三年。两三年可以有多少行业和交叉行业的变化?至少不会是线性的。 And block-chain entrepreneurs, often created from God's perspective, have become to VC models, and, because of the premature dispersion of token, there is hardly any possibility of an overlap but to wait for a high-cost split. The development and lock-in cycles are two or three years, starting with billions of dollars in solid public-chain projects. How many industries and cross-cutting industries can change in two or three years? 三. 区块链可以做什么 那么区块链可以做什么呢?在「足够激动」的方向上，我没有看到。在「一点希望」的方向上，另一个思路是按照问题，而不是行业去划分，因为问题比解决方案更重要。比如，以下是我们内部研究过的一些独立问题： So what can a block chain do? I don't see it in the direction of "excited enough." In the direction of "a little hope", the other idea is to divide it by problem, not industry, because the problem is more important than a solution. For example, the following are some of the independent issues that we have studied internally: 我们按照短期和长期落地两个分类去看，并把讨论范围局限在1.真实的用户需求，2.现实的落地可能性和3.长期有价值的增量市场这三个假设上。 We look at it in two categories, short- and long-term, and limit the discussion to 1. Real user needs, 2. Real landing possibilities and 3. Long-term valuable incremental markets. 短期落地： 1. 金融 1. Finance 这里首先要申明一个个人观点，虽然金融基础设施也是我们研究孵化的重点方向之一，但这并不是最让人激动的方向。如果 5 年后区块链的落地方向还只有金融，那它可能归零。金融并不能创造新的价值，它只能增加杠杆或进行价值转移，在大多数场景下，它是一个零和游戏。更何况，市场秩序需要更多的监管，而越多的中心化监管意味着越少的「去中心化」金融平行世界里的价值。 A personal point of view is that, although financial infrastructure is also one of the main directions of our research into incubation, it is not the most exciting. If five years later the chain of blocks is left with only finance, it may be zero. Finance does not create new value, it can only leverage or transfer value, and in most cases it is a zero-sum game. 抛开这个假设，金融基础设施确实还有非常多创新的机会。现在的虚拟货币市场就像 20 世纪初的华尔街，流量资源依然围绕交易所，而经纪商、做市商、客户端、清算、审计、KYC、算法交易、暗池、衍生品、结构产品、资管平台、评级机构，这些全都没有出现或刚刚开始。交易所的市场话语权会渐渐弱化，行业分工细化，每个环节生长出中心化或去中心化的解决方案。 Beyond this assumption, financial infrastructure does have many opportunities for innovation. Virtual money markets are now like Wall Street at the beginning of the 20th century, where the flow of resources continues to revolve around exchanges, while brokers, market agents, customers, clearing, auditing, KYC, algorithmic transactions, dark pools, derivatives, structural products, capital management platforms, rating agencies, all of which have not emerged or have just begun. 中心化的解决方案是非常简单的，因为你只需要在适合的时间点去按照华尔街历史上出现过的东西再来一遍。为什么说要适合的时间点呢?比如在去年这种火爆的 ICO 的市场牛市阶段，评级、指数都没有太大的意义，因为你明知道垃圾项目也可以赚钱。再比如很多人想做衍生品交易所，但目前币圈的流动性难以支撑衍生品对手盘的充足程度，所以 vol (波动率)的 bid offer 太大，机构交易者渗透率也太低。 The solution of centralization is very simple, because you just have to do it again at the right time, according to what's been happening in Wall Street's history. Why the right time? For example, last year's hot ICO market, ratings and indices didn't make much sense, because you knew that garbage projects could make money. 除了时点的问题，大的趋势并没有什么难以预测的，所以这里不再一一分析，只举出几个不同方向的典型例子，感兴趣的话可以搜索： Apart from the problem of the point of time, there is nothing difficult to predict about the large trends, so there is no longer a single analysis here, but only a few typical examples of different directions, which can be searched if interested: 不过，并不是所有法币世界的金融产品都可以复制到虚拟货币，比如 P2P 借贷。这个方向我们在去年 12 月就尝试孵化过，但后来还是没有立项。因为虚拟货币除了炒币投资，目前没有真实的支付用途，这就导致贷款的目的只有加杠杆。这个高风险场景加上虚拟货币没有真实的身份验证的特点，导致抵押率必须在 100% 以上。所以由于虚拟货币的借贷只用于炒币，它的需求是单边的，缺乏双边市场的市场匹配，本质上并不构成稳定的借贷市场。 This high-risk scenario, coupled with the fact that virtual currency is not authentically authenticated, makes the mortgage rate 100% or more. So, since virtual currency borrowing is only for currency swings, its demand is unilateral, and the lack of market matches in bilateral markets does not inherently constitute a stable borrowing market. 那去中心化解决方案呢?我们上述所说的几乎任何一种需求，其实都有去中心化的解决版本，只不过距离广泛应用还有很大距离。拿去中心化交易所举例，目前不仅交易量极低，更重要是有很多技术问题尚未解决。在 0x 协议中，仅仅实现了下单和成交的全网广播，撮合在链下完成。广播出的 order 撤单成本极高，且实际上有潜在的 relayer 出现 front run 的问题，这在传统金融中是致命的。这些问题都在慢慢被迭代，但至少目前我没有看到很好的解决方案。 What about decentralised solutions? There is a decentralized version of almost any of the above-mentioned needs, but there is still a long way to go. To centralized exchanges, for example, not only is the volume of transactions very low, but, more importantly, there are many technical problems that remain unresolved. In the 0x agreement, only single-and-sold full-web broadcasts have been achieved, sorted together in the chain. The broadcasting of orders is extremely costly, and there is a potential relayer that has a problem with front run, which is deadly in traditional finance. These problems are slowly being overtaken, but I do not see any good solutions at least for the moment. 去中心化钱包，去中心化托管，去中心化借贷，这些在技术上都成立，但背后蕴藏着更深刻的挑战：金融本身就是一种中介服务，包括风险出现后对用户的保护。如果去中心化的金融第三方服务出现了黑天鹅风险，如盗币，那谁来承担这个责任呢?当然，并不是中心化的刚性兑付，准备金制度，信用背书就一定是更好的，但这是去中心化普及会比人们想象的慢的重要原因。 Decentralized wallets, decentralized hosting, decentralized lending and lending are technically established, but there are deeper challenges behind them: finance itself is an intermediary service, including the protection of users when risks arise. If decentralized financial third-party services are exposed to the risk of black swans, such as currency theft, then who will bear the responsibility? Of course, it is not centralized hard-to-pay, reserve systems, credit endorsements, but that is an important reason why decentralization would be slower than people think. 我还是比较坚定地认为去中心化金融解决方案是大势所趋，因为解决了技术瓶颈之后，它们更能体现出区块链的优势，结合更加天然。既然金融产品的标的物都是去中心化自由发行的，渠道和辅助基础设施由中心化来解决只是历史阶段现象。 Still, I strongly believe that decentralizing financial solutions is a big move, because, after solving technological bottlenecks, they are more likely to reflect the advantages of block chains and to combine them more naturally. Since financial products are subject to decentralizing and free distribution, the channels and the supporting infrastructure are centralized to solving only historical phenomena. ***，由于区块链天生「fat protocol」的特点，另一个与传统金融市场不同的特点就是协议层的价值。在传统金融，底层技术与服务都是估值***，盈利最难的。但是虚拟货币底层服务商如果能尝试开源 + token 的模式，也许能抓住比传统软件公司更大的价值。 *** Another characteristic that differs from traditional financial markets because of the inherent fat protocol of block chains is the value of the agreement layer. In traditional finance, lower-level technologies and services are valued *** and most difficult to earn. But virtual bottom-tier providers may be able to capture more value than traditional software companies if they try to open their source + token models. 比如我们自己孵化了面向机构专业投资者的交易终端，开源了所有 API、核心算法等，并由社区成员帮助测试和迭代。虽然目前还没有想好具体的经济模型，但已经体会到非常多开源社区开发的好处，以及与大的开源区块链世界的协同。 For example, we incubate our own trading terminals for institutional professional investors, with all APIs, core algorithms, and so on, with community members helping to test them. While there are no specific economic models yet to be worked out, we have learned the benefits of development in very open-source communities and the synergies with a large open-source chain world. 2. 虚拟资产 2. Virtual assets 虚拟资产其实在今天并没有一个严格的定义，这里是我自己的粗糙总结： Virtual assets do not really have a strict definition today, and here's my own rough summary: 除了游戏，还有什么最有可能符合虚拟资产严苛的定义?艺术和娱乐。这看似是一个小众的市场，但一旦有闭环的模式，就可以扩展到所有带有相同属性的市场。我看好比较典型的虚拟资产有、版权、身份(虚拟 ID)、社交媒体账号、社交媒体社群、个人数据……在人类 GDP 逐渐由原子世界向比特世界迁移的过程中，它们的价值会越来越大。 In addition to games, what is most likely to meet the strict definition of virtual assets? Art and entertainment. This seems to be a small market, but once there is a closed model, it can be extended to all markets with the same attributes. I look at the more typical virtual assets: copyrights, identities (virtual IDs), social media accounts, social media communities, personal data & Hellip; & Hellip; and their growing value as human GDP moves from the atomic world to the Bits world. 为什么虚拟资产和区块链的结合是天然的?因为它在被生产的***天就是数据化的，存在于互联网上的，而互联网***的特点就是信息免费，复制免费。信息免费创造了流量经济，而流量经济把渠道的价值推到***。渠道不仅掌握了你的数据，还有你的虚拟资产所有权。微信，微博可以以任意理由关停你的自媒体号，删除你的社群，而不需要付出代价。可是有意思的是，而当你拥有头部资产，变现能力极强的时候，社交媒体又变成了弱势的一方。同道大叔以 2 亿卖给百度，微博分不到半毛钱。区块链在这里能发挥的价值，就是虚拟资产的确权和流转，以及平台、经济体，用户之间的经济利益分配，俗称生产关系。 Why is the combination of virtual assets and block chains natural? Because it is digital on the *** day of production and exists on the Internet, and the Internet *** is characterized by free information and reproduction free of charge. Information creates the flow economy free of charge, while the flow economy pushes the value of the channel to ***. The channel not only has access to your data, but also your virtual asset ownership. We believe that microblogging can shut down your self-media and remove your community without paying a price. 但是为什么虚拟资产与区块链结合的领域现在还没有看到好的案例?我个人认为是大家选错了角度。由于虚拟经济本身就是一个刚刚开始的增量市场，目前应该是资产为先，而不是平台为先。拿艺术品举例，我们孵化了一个半公益项目，是一个先锋艺术家自己创造的新艺术形式 crypto art。新媒体艺术伴随着互联网的发展已经有了比较成熟的体系，但一直面临价格被低估，无法像传统艺术品一样以高价收藏，因为电子照片，视频可以免费复制，天生与艺术品「稀缺性」相违背。线下艺术品价值连城的部分在于那个***的原作，而线上的复制品一文不值。但如果区块链定义了线上的源代码才是「原作」呢?那么线下的打印版本，不就只是衍生品，反而一文不值吗?区块链不仅具有时间戳，***，不可篡改等符合艺术品特性的特点，还超越了物理属性，比如不会丢失和被破坏。 But why is the area where virtual assets are associated with block chains not yet a good case? I personally think it is the wrong angle. Because the virtual economy is itself a start-up incremental market, it should be an asset first, not a platform first. By way of art, we hatch a semi-public benefit project, which is a new form of art created by a pioneer artist himself. 有些艺术形式非常适合区块链的载体，比如一个有逻辑的故事，而「逻辑」是难以被线下传统艺术体现的。就像行为艺术，你可以欣赏，但很难收藏它。区块链技术只是一个解决方案，是 ERC20 还有 ERC721 并没有那么重要，因为那取决于你想要实现什么。如果这个资产类型被验证，下一步才是去找到更多的艺术家加入这个方向。再下一步，才是是否需要平台，是否需要独立的货币，或者激励机制。从 MVP 出发，***迭代到「商业模式」。而不是一开始从上帝视角去设计，然后期待市场自动填充 MVP 的部分。 Some forms of art are well suited to the vehicle of the block chain, such as a logical story, and "logic" is hard to be embodied in the traditional art below the line. Like behavioral art, you can appreciate, but it is hard to collect. Block chain technology is just a solution, ERC20 and ERC721, which is not so important because it depends on what you want to do. If this asset type is proven, the next step is to find more artists to join in this direction. The next step is whether the platform is needed, whether an independent currency is needed, or whether the incentive mechanism is needed. From MVP, *** overlapped to MVP. 另一个例子是 avatar，虚拟偶像或虚拟人物。去年 12 月开始我们就关注到 oben PAI。然而他们想要同时去解决语音 AI、图像 AI、虚拟偶像标准等多个问题，实在不太现实。我们认为这个方向应该先从孵化虚拟人物资产出发，而前端的呈现方式越简单越好，比如小程序。你有了虚拟世界里自己的一个代表之后，它即可以吸引流量，也可以直接产生收益。用户对于区块链应该是无感知的，只有在低频的确权，产权转移等环节才感受到区别。这其实是一个技术门槛非常高的方向，当时我们找到了国内在虚拟人物领域技术最厉害的 2 个团队沟通很久，但***还是因为先平台还是先产品的问题没有磨合出来。如果大家有认识这方面的团队，也欢迎给我们推荐。 Another example is the avatar, a virtual idol or a virtual figure. Last December, we started to focus on the oben PAI. But it's not realistic that they want to solve the multiple issues of voice AI, image AI, virtual idol standards at the same time. We think that this direction should start with the hatching of virtual figures' assets, and the more simple the front end is, for example, the smaller the process. 链上虚拟资产的另一个优点，就是开放的开发权限。一个外部独立团队可以在 Cryptokitten 的基础上做 kitten hat 并且成为新的资产，既不需要得到原开发团队的许可，也不需要交钱。这在传统的游戏里是几乎不可能的，因为游戏开发者***的价值就是拥有 IP，***暂时的垄断赚钱。比如一个南京独立游戏开发团队做的开源协议 Genesis project，把原本自己做的游戏里的英雄人物 Adam 开源出来，鼓励其他团队开发也带有 Adam 角色，不同游戏间的 Adam 数值会互相影响，玩家可以自己去发现它们中间的关系。这一下子改变了 Adam 作为一个重要 IP 资产的经济模式，也改变了流量获取的逻辑，使开发者有可能由竞争变为协作的关系。 Another advantage of virtual assets on the chain is open access to development. An external independent team can do this on the basis of Cryptokitten and become a new asset without the permission of the original development team or the payment of money. This is almost impossible in traditional games, because the value of game developers *** is to have IP, *** a temporary monopoly to make money. 3. 通证经济 3. Transmittal economy 前文虽然 diss 了一下币改和积分上链，但是并没有否认通证经济这个方向。相反地，这是我们最近两三个月研究最多的话题。 The previous one, while diss had a bit of currency change and a bit of points up the chain, did not deny the direction of the mediocre economy. On the contrary, it was the topic that we've studied most in the last two or three months. 首先说下 FCoin，具体的模型我们之前有过比较深入的内部研究，也写过文章分享。当时我们只把重点放在 token 模型本身上，并不涉及 FCoin 作为一家公司或创始人个人的道德判断。FCoin 的价格至今经历了大起大落，规则一改再改，各种狗血和猛烈的剧情都上演过，我们不做评价。 First of all, Fcoin, we had a more in-depth internal study and a paper-sharing model. We focused only on the Token model itself, not on the moral judgment of Fcoin as a company or founder. Fcoin 分红模型的意义在于帮助解决强网络效应模式的早期获客问题。传统的互联网模式是「私募股权融资—现金补贴用户—用户转化—行业并购—利用流量优势收割」新出现的互联网产品。交易所的核心价值就是流动性，而流动性是做市商和交易者共同提供的。既然常规做法是去现金补贴用户，或用利润回购用户手中的交易所代币，为什么不能直接让早期用户成为早期投资人，同时也是早期价值增长的获益者?FCoin 模式受到诟病的方面主要在于剧烈的价格波动，以及允许甚至鼓励刷单行为的存在。但从另外一方面来看，FCoin 所做的创新不过就是一个新型 ICO，只是省去了 ICO 之后资本到交易量的转化。是否允许刷单，是否依靠价格的快速增长刺激投机行为，是否要通过高度控盘对投资者负责，这些都是可调参数，可以分开讨论。 The core value of the exchange is liquidity, which is provided jointly by marketers and traders. Since the conventional approach is cash subsidies for users, or exchange currencies in the hands of profit-buyers, why can’t early users be directly investors and beneficiaries of early value growth? The problem with the Fcoin model is mainly high price volatility and allows and even encourages billing. On the other hand, however, Fcoin’s innovation is just a new type of ICO, but merely a conversion of capital-to-trade transactions after saving ICOs. Whether it is allowed to draw bills, whether it is dependent on rapid price growth to stimulate speculative behaviour, and whether it is responsible to investors through a highly controlled board, can be discussed separately. 分红模型其实有一个很大的限定因素，就是只能用于现金流非常好的商业模式。这种模式在非金融行业也存在，比如高毛利消费品电商。新产品面临很高的渠道成本和供应链的不确定性，早期用户其实贡献了更大的价值。传统的众筹分为产品众筹和股权众筹，但一个只获得了产品售价打折，一个承担了血本无归的高风险。Token 可以把两者合二为一，购买了消费对象的同时，拥有一小部分分红权，这种模式尤其适合社交分销的形式。在量化模型中，我们把 token 价格作为了需要控制的输入参数，可以基于一定的假设算出不同阶段购买用户的预期收益，以及维持用户增长的现金成本。 In the case of new products, which are subject to high channel cost and supply chain uncertainty, early users actually contribute much more value. Traditional crowds are divided into product crowds and shareholders, but one has only a discount on the sale of the product, and one has a high risk of losing blood. Token can combine the two and buy a small share of the consumption, especially in the form of social distribution. In the quantitative model, we use the token price as an input parameter that needs to be controlled and can calculate the expected benefits of purchasing the user at different stages and the cash costs of sustaining the user’s growth. 类似的潜在场景还有中心化钱包。目前由于缺乏中心化银行和央行的资产负债表，虚拟货币没有无风险利率的概念。但在我们的模型中，中心化钱包可以单独开设理财账户，并收取相对入金金额一定比例的账户管理费，以 Token 形式 100% 返还，并把初始无风险利率设置为管理费费率一致。管理费收入每天先用来支付无风险利息，剩下的分红给钱包 token 的持有者作为风险回报。对于中心化钱包，实际在做的是通过打折的 ICO 吸引早期存款，并人为创造无风险利率，在长期则主动寻找资产端配置市场化主流货币的无风险利率。对于小众货币，应该让项目方自己寻找资产端并实现刚性兑付的利率回报，变相帮助项目进行流动性贴现。所有的参数，规则都可以在量化模型中进行调整，比如挖矿返还周期应该是 1 天、30 天还是 60 天，对用户的投资回报和行为博弈有什么影响?对于下降周期的 AUM 假设和价格假设应该是怎样的，会如何影响参数的激进程度? A similar potential scenario includes a centralized wallet. In the absence of a centralized bank and central bank balance sheet, there is currently no concept of a virtual currency with no risk-free interest rate. In our model, however, a centralized wallet can open a separate fiscal account and charge a percentage of the accounts management fee in the form of Token relative to the amount of money charged. 「xx 即挖矿」这个说法虽然常常只是一句玩笑，但我认为这是区块链经济的未来。什么是「xx 即挖矿」的本质呢?想想人的现实生活，投资炒股只是一个很小众的行为。大部分人在做什么呢?在工作，在赚钱，这才是他们的经济生活。广义的经济，应该是人类用生产资料置换资本，消费品或其他生产资料的过程。这里的生产资料包括了智力、时间、能作为生产力的工具、闲置资源、资本等多种，所以算力、资本只能算其中很小的一部分。 The term "xx is mining" is often a joke, but I think it is the future of the block-chain economy. What is the essence of "xx is mining"? Thinking about people's real life, investing in stocks is a very small act. What do most people do? Working, making money, is their economic life. The broader economy should be the process of replacing capital, consumer goods or other means of production. Token 在这其中起到的作用，就是定义生产关系或经济规则。但面临的挑战是：1. 如何量化一个人在一个网络里的贡献?比如一个开源软件很难根据谁贡献了多少行代码就说谁的贡献更大，而如果引入人的主观判断又回到了不可预测的中心化模式。所以我们应该先去关注一些更容易标准化结果的 micro task、micro economy 场景。举个例子，一个语音 AI 项目通过前端语音输入解决 AI 行业语音数据收集和标记的问题，就是把本来线下 AI 标记这个产业变成了用户利用碎片时间的微型收入。 Token plays a role in defining production relationships or economic rules. But the challenge before us is: 1. How can one’s contribution in a network be quantified? For example, it is difficult for an open source software to say how many lines of code have contributed, and if one introduces subjective judgment, it returns to unpredictable centralization patterns. So we should focus on microtask, micro economy scenes that make it easier to standardize results. 挑战 2，人的行为是非常复杂的，如何做到公平合理地激励同一个网络的所有人，同时抵抗作恶?比如，我们参与的一个硬盘挖矿共识引擎项目网络设计中包括硬盘挖矿的普通节点和 POS 的跨链全节点，他们之间可以分开奖励，也可以动态平衡。全节点收益过高的时候，应该降低收入，鼓励他们加入普通矿工。这里难的不是动态调整，而是制定一个不轻易改变的规则，以保证长期博弈。 挑战 3，如果没有当期现金分红这样的刺激，或没有二级市场定价，token economy 还会生效吗?我们目前倾向于认为比较困难。对于还没有变现能力的商业模式，token 无论有没有二级市场，都容易因为大量投机行为失去商业信用或控制权，变成一场庞氏骗局。所以开发和变现周期较长的公链，更适合走直接私募融资的路线，不要过早地把代币分散给市场用户。 Challenge 3, would have worked if there had not been an incentive such as current cash spreads, or secondary market pricing. We now tend to find it difficult. Token, with or without a secondary market, can easily lose business credit or control over a large number of speculative actions and turn into a Ponzi scheme. So the development and realization of long-term public chains is better suited to take the direct private financing route and do not spread the money prematurely to market users. 我们希望发现的 Token 的场景和价值只是冰山一角，毕竟它「看起来」恰好补充了原来开源网络里最缺乏的一部分，经济机制。Github 被微软收购，bitTorrent 被 Tron 收购，在码农看来都是不可思议的事情。在没有任何经济激烈的前提下，开源协议组织已经为世界贡献了那么大的价值。如果有，那它会有多么大的想象空间。我更希望未来的世界是开源协议网络加上节点上分散的小型公司组织，而不是大公司与开源组织的对抗。 The scenes and values of Token that we want to discover are just the tip of the iceberg, which, after all, "looks" is a complement to the economic mechanisms that were the most lacking in the original open source network. Github was bought by Microsoft, bitTorrent was acquired by Tron, which is an incredible thing in the view of the cosmopolitans. Without any economic intensity, open source organizations have already contributed so much to the world. 遥远的未来： Far future: 让我们暂时进入诗与远方的世界。区块链既然只解决生产关系的问题，就必须与生产力工具结合，所以它***的价值释放将来自于 AI、物联网、AR/VR 等新兴生产力的发展。这里由于脑洞比较大，仅列出几个我长期关注，但是短期很难落地实现的方向(对，就是做不出来)，希望有机会单独分析： Since the block chain only addresses the issue of productive relationships, it has to be combined with productivity tools, so the value release *** will come from the development of emerging productivity such as AI, the Internet, AR/VR. Because of the size of the brain hole, only a few of my long-term concerns are listed, but it is difficult to achieve in the short term (or it cannot be done), and it is hoped that there will be an opportunity for individual analysis: 可信计算，AI 时代个人数据作为最重要生产资料的加密计算，数据挖掘—cortex，Enigma，Numerei (这些看白皮书就行了) Credible calculations, AI-era personal data encoded as the most important source of production, data mining & mdash; coltex, Enigma, Numerei. 以上是自己对区块链应用层面的思考。所谓币圈一天，人间一年，变好与变坏都是这样。希望大家保持冷静和理性，如果喜欢，就继续探索，但谨慎投入，如果失望，就去看看其他行业的方向，毕竟区块链还是一个非常小众，备受考验的行业。***祝熊市不长不短，恰到好处。 That's what you think about the application of the block chain. That's what it is about a day in the circle, a year in the world, getting better and getting worse. I want you to stay calm and rational, if you like, continue to explore, but be careful and, if you are disappointed, look at the direction of other industries. After all, the block chain is a very small, tested industry.
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