比特币价格跳水一度跌超20%，明年行情怎么走？

来源：21世纪经济报道

Source: Economic Report for the 21st Century.

　　原标题：比特币价格跳水一度跌超20%，明年行情怎么走？

　　21世纪经济报道记者舒晓婷 北京报道 比特币价格再次上演“过山车”行情。上周五，市场避险情绪冲击美股市场并波及加密货币市场，比特币当日跌幅达20%，跌至43000美元以下；周日，比特币价格反弹至49000美元左右；截至发稿，比特币价格报47505.71美元。

Economic reporter Shu Xiaoting for the 21st century reported in Beijing that the price of Bitcoin was back on the road. Last Friday, market evasiveness hit the United States stock market and affected the crypto-currency market. Bitcoin fell by 20 per cent that day, to less than $43,000; Bitcoin rebounded on Sunday at about $49,000; and Bitcoin prices stood at $47,505.71 as of the time of publication.

　　复旦大学中国研究院特聘副研究员刘典告诉21世纪经济报道记者，美联储主席鲍威尔释放出提前结束量化宽松政策的信号成为比特币暴跌的重要诱因。从更深层来看，全球金融监管环境趋紧、各国货币政策逐渐收紧增加了市场情绪的脆弱性，从而更容易触发风险资产短期大幅波动。

Liu Xing, an associate researcher at the Chinese Institute at the University of Gangan, told economic reporters in the twenty-first century that US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s signal of an early end to quantitative easing was an important trigger for Bitcoin’s collapse. More deeply, the tightening of the global financial regulatory environment and the gradual tightening of countries’ monetary policies have increased the vulnerability of market sentiment, making it easier to trigger large short-term fluctuations in risk assets.

　　刘典指出，未来，一旦美联储加息，将对全球资本市场格局产生明显影响：一是新兴市场经济体出现资本外流，二是科技股市值会受到相对冲击，三是比特币等加密货币市场的短期波动率明显上升。

Liu Jian noted that, in the future, once the Fed increases interest rates, it will have a clear impact on the global capital market landscape: first, capital outflows from emerging market economies, the relative impact on the market value of the share of science and technology, and third, a marked increase in short-term volatility in crypto-currency markets such as Bitcoin.

　　货币属性放大比特币溢价空间

Monetary properties magnify bitcoin premium space

　　近日，比特币价格出现明显波动。美联储提高利率的预期降低了持有比特币等投机性资产的吸引力。回顾过往，在2017年和2018年美联储采取加息举措时比特币价格大幅下跌；新冠疫情期间，由于各国普遍采取超宽松货币政策，比特币价格再次“起飞”，今年11月9日曾创下67802美元的历史高点。

The Fed’s expectation of higher interest rates reduces the attractiveness of holding speculative assets, such as bitcoins. In retrospect, Bitcoin prices fell sharply in 2017 and 2018, when the Fed introduced interest hikes; during the new crown epidemic, Bitcoin prices “take off again” as a result of the prevailing hyper-oppressive monetary policy, which reached a historic high of $67802 on 9 November this year.

　　Invest Diva的首席执行官Kiana Dania认为，目前比特币价格的波动是正常的，一旦回调完成，很有可能反弹，并在新的一年达到新高。

According to Kiana Dania, Chief Executive Officer of Invest Diva, the current fluctuations in Bitcoin prices are normal and, once the repatriation is completed, are likely to rebound and reach new heights in the new year.

　　就比特币价格呈现的高波动性而言，刘典指出，由私人机构开发的比特币更多体现的是金融资产的属性，只是由于很多人将货币功能属性附加在这一资产上，从而使其呈现出较大的溢价空间。

In terms of the high volatility of bitcoin prices, Liu Xing pointed out that bitcoins developed by private institutions were more characterized by the properties of financial assets than by the fact that many people attached monetary functional attributes to the asset, thus giving it a greater margin of premium.

　　摩根大通资产管理公司早些时候的报告指出，考虑到加密货币的波动性以及与其他资产缺乏相关性，对散户或机构投资组合来说并非是不错的资产选择。不过，过去五年比特币价格上涨超7200%，这也在一定程度上平息了关于加密货币收益不可持续的质疑。

According to an earlier report by Morgan Chase Asset Management, given the volatility of encrypted currencies and the lack of correlation with other assets, this is not a good asset option for the bulk or institutional portfolio. However, the price increase ofbitcoin in the past five years has exceeded 7200%, thus quelling some of the doubts about the unsustainable returns on encrypted currencies.

　　在2020年初疫情暴发后，大量机构投资者开始购买比特币。“这些机构购买推高了比特币的价格，吸引了更多的散户投资者购买比特币，使这种加密货币成为疫情期间最有吸引力的投资之一。”区块链数据平台Chainalysis首席经济学家格拉德威尔（Philip Gradwell）表示。

After the outbreak in early 2020, a large number of institutional investors began to buy bitcoin. “These institutions are buying up bitcoin, attracting more bulk investors to buy bitcoin, making this encrypted currency one of the most attractive investments during the epidemic.” Philip Gradwell, Chief Economist, Chainalysis, the block-chain data platform.

　　货币数字化潮流势不可挡？

The trend of digitizing money is unstoppable?

　　在一些投资者看好比特币的同时，多国政府对比特币和其他加密货币采取愈加严格的监管措施，这在一定程度上可能挫伤比特币的长期收益。“关于加密货币的资本炒作尤为严重，这也是为什么多国监管趋严或者明令禁止加密货币交易；就中国而言，更多是从防范化解重大风险的立场去对待加密货币。”刘典指出。

While some investors look at bitcoin, more stringent regulatory measures by multinational governments on bitcoin and other encrypted currencies may, to some extent, undermine bitcoin’s long-term gains. “The capital boom on encoded currency is particularly serious, and that is why multinational regulation has become more stringent or explicitly prohibits encrypt currency transactions; in the case of China, it is more likely to treat encrypt currency in a precautionary manner than in the case of major risks.” Liu Xian pointed out.

　　目前，包括中国、玻利维亚、哥伦比亚等在内的国家禁止加密货币交易，印度、俄罗斯、美国也在审查监管加密货币交易的可能性方案。与此同时，多国正在积极研发法定数字货币，中国在该领域相对而言走在全球前列。

Countries, including China, Bolivia, Colombia, etc., are currently banning encrypted currency transactions, and India, Russia, and the US are examining possible options for regulating encrypted currency transactions. At the same time, many countries are actively developing legal digital currencies, and China is relatively at the forefront in this area.

　　刘典指出，中国以及其他国家正在积极试点的央行数字货币和比特币等私人数字货币最明显的区别在于：央行数字货币是中心化的货币，而比特币是去中心化的数字资产，央行数字货币的大规模使用可以相对缓解目前去中心化趋势可能加剧的金融系统风险。

Liu Jing pointed out that the most obvious difference between central bank digital currencies and private digital currencies such as Bitcoin, which China and other countries are actively piloting, is that central bank digital currencies are central currencies, while bitcoins are decentralized digital assets, and that the large-scale use of central bank digital currencies can relatively mitigate the risks to the financial system that the current trend towards decentralization may increase.

　　“随着多国陆续推动法定数字货币的试点，一定程度上会淡化包括比特币在内的私人数字货币的货币属性认知。”刘典表示。

“The degree to which the monetary identity of private digital currencies, including bitcoins, is diluted as many countries move forward with the piloting of statutory digital currencies.” Liu Jing states.

　　无论是比特币还是央行数字货币，关于加密货币需要回归到一个常识，即加密货币所承载的包括区块链技术在内的数字技术部分代表着未来数字经济发展的前沿方向。在刘典看来，从长期来看，随着人类社会迈入数字化转型的关键时期，未来由加密货币所引发的货币数字化潮流是“不可阻挡”的。

Whether it is bitcoin or central bank digital currency, encryption money needs to return to the common sense that the digital technology component of the crypto-currency, including block-chain technology, represents the cutting edge of future digital economic development. In Liu's view, as human society enters a crucial phase of digital transition in the long run, the future trend of digitalization caused by encrypted money is “unstoppable.”