凌晨一点,姜山突然发来信息,说比特币还在跌。这段时间,他几乎连上厕所都带着手机盯着盘面,我问有用吗?他说,没用,但是看着心里会踏实点,但能感觉到他的焦虑,他近来时不时问我,这么跌什么时候才是尽头。
At 1 a.m., Kang San suddenly sent a message saying that bitcoin was still falling. During this time, he almost went to the toilet with his cell phone on the plate. Does it help me? He said, it's not working, but he looks down, but he can feel his anxiety, and he asks me from time to time, when this is going to end.
很难说什么时候才是尽头。因为对于币圈的先入者来说,他们可没这么焦虑,这些人有的是区块链项目,靠谱的不靠谱的,有的是融钱的机会。无论比特币涨跌,只是赚多赚少的问题,后来者才会实时盯盘,顶着风险的投机行为,到最后可能会被收割。
It is difficult to say when it ends. Because they are not so anxious about the early entrants of the currency circle: they have block-chain projects, solid projects, and opportunities to melt money. Whether bitcoins rise or fall, it is just a matter of making less or less money, and then people stare at it in real time, and risk speculation may end up being harvested.
当你看着别人一次一次赚过大钱,艳羡又妒忌着一夜暴富带来的改变后,就很难弥补“只有我穷”的落差,你很难摆脱投机于捷径的执念,在财富分化的世界里,0分比59分更使人挣扎。
It is difficult to make up for & & & ldquo; I'm poor & & rdquo; and it is difficult to get rid of the idea of speculatory short-cuts, and in a world where wealth is divided, zero points are more difficult than 59 points.
很多投资者在享受过一次比特币暴涨带来的甜头后,就对这个味道念念不忘,于是前仆后继,他们以为这是信仰,其实不过是对财富再分配红利的迷恋。
Many investors, after enjoying the sweetness of a surge in bitcoin, were reminded of the taste and followed by former servants who thought that it was a faith, but rather a obsession with the redistribution of dividends of wealth.
但现在,比特币已经跌破了10000美元,甚至8000美元……
But now, Bitcoin has fallen by $10,000, or even $8,000 & Hellip; & Hellip;
用“跌跌不休”来形容比特币近期走势再恰当不过了。上周二,比特币价格跌幅逾10%,失守10000美元大关。据虚拟货币交易平台coinbase网站显示,截至记者发稿,比特币价格已经跌穿8000美元至7941.64美元,这与去年底比特币价格最高逾20000美元相比,跌幅超60%。仅在过去一周比特币跌幅达到28.69%。
Using “ falling and falling & & rdquo; to describe the recent movement of Bitcoin is more appropriate than ever. Last Tuesday, Bitcoin prices fell by more than 10% and lost the $10,000 mark.
Coinmarketcap网站数据显示,在过去24小时内,比特币跌幅为13.7%。除了比特币以外,其他数字货币也继续大幅下滑,以太币、瑞波币等市值前十的数字货币较24小时前跌幅均超过20%。
Data from Coinmarketcap show that in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin fell by 13.7 per cent, while other digital currencies, in addition to Bitcoin, continued to decline significantly, with the top 10 digital currencies, such as Taico and Riboco, falling by more than 20 per cent 24 hours ago.
苏宁金融研究院互联网金融研究院薛洪言向证券时报·创业资本汇记者表示,2017年10月至今年1月,虚拟货币市场迎来一次大涨,屡创新高,上涨的背后是新用户的不断涌入,同时也引发了大量无任何价值的空气代币发行,导致市场中风险不断积聚,此次暴跌一方面是市场的自然调整,是风险释放的过程,另一方面越来越多的国家意识到虚拟货币成为大众投资品后的潜在风险巨大,并出台了一系列打压政策,在很大程度上抑制了投机热情,加速推动前期获利者离场。
Xue Hong, the Institute of Internet Finance of the Sunning Institute of Financial Studies, spoke to the Securities Times & Middot; a reporter on entrepreneurship capital transfer said that the virtual money market had risen sharply between October 2017 and January of this year, with innovation rising behind a steady influx of new users, and that it had also generated a large number of unvalued air tokens, which had led to a growing accumulation of risks in the market, a natural adjustment of the market and a process of risk release, while a growing number of countries were aware of the potential risks of virtual currency becoming a popular investment product, and had introduced a series of repressive policies that had largely curbed the incentive for speculation and accelerated the departure of pre-profiters.
具体来看,近期除了美国,韩国、德国、日本等国家都开始加强对比特币的监管。全球的监管风暴已来到,并且力度还在不断加大。
In particular, countries like Korea, Germany, and Japan, with the exception of the United States, have recently begun to strengthen their oversight of Bitcoin. The global regulatory storm has come and is increasing.
在亚洲地区,包括印度国家银行在内的一些印度银行对包括前十大交易所在内的本土比特币交易所账户暂停交易,他们认为这些账户存在可疑交易,银行还要求比特币交易所就其借款提供额外担保。
In the Asian region, a number of Indian banks, including the National Bank of India, suspended transactions on local Bitcoin exchange accounts, including the top 10, which they considered to be suspicious, and requested additional guarantees from the Bitcoin Exchange for their borrowings.
此外,韩国从1月30日起,数字货币交易所既有账户转为实名确认账户后即可获批交易,新用户在开户时必须实名认证。根据相关规定,即使通过实名认证,外国投资者和韩国《民法》规定的未成年人都无法进行数字货币交易。
In addition, since 30 January, the digital currency exchange has been converted from an account to an account with a real name, and new users must be certified by their real name at the time of opening the account. According to the relevant regulations, even if authenticated, neither foreign investors nor minors under the Korean Civil Code are able to carry out digital currency transactions.
1月26日,日本发生史上最大数字货币盗窃案,造成价值约5.3亿美元的新经币(XEM)丢失。随后日本金融厅命令涉事交易所Coincheck提交一份关于黑客事件、风险管理以及防止类似事件再发生措施的调查报告,并表示在对数字货币交易所的安全性进行调查。
On 26 January, the largest digital currency theft in history occurred in Japan, resulting in the loss of some $530 million worth of new currency (XEM). The Japan Financial Services Agency then ordered Coincheck, the relevant exchange, to submit an investigation report on the hacking incident, risk management and measures to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents, and stated that an investigation was being conducted into the security of the digital currency exchange.
“比特币交易平台的搭建主体无资格限制,交易系统的不安全,交易平台注册地无国籍限制,导致比特币这一所谓的‘无政府主义’货币少数的流通场所变得脆弱不堪一击,风险巨大”,中南财经政法大学产业升级与区域金融协同创新中心研究员李含虹表示。
& & & ldquo; unqualified owners of the Bitcoin trading platform, unsafe trading systems, and stateless restrictions on the place of registration of the trading platform, resulting in the so-called &lsquo of Bitcoin; anarchist ’ vulnerable and risky circulation sites of currency minorities & & & rdquao; and Lee Han Yong, researcher at the Centre for Industrial Upgrading and Regional Financial Synergy and Innovation at the University of Central and Southern Finance and Economic Law.
最新消息显示,越来越多的美国信用卡发卡机构决定从数字货币交易市场中退出。摩根大通、花旗银行和美国银行均宣布将禁止客户利用自己发行信用卡购买数字货币的交易。
Recent news suggests that an increasing number of credit card issuing agencies in the United States have decided to exit the digital currency trading market. Morgan Chase, Citibank, and the Bank of America have announced that they will prohibit customers from using their credit cards to purchase digital money.
的确,对于信用卡发卡机构和银行来说,允许利用信用卡购买数字货币存在巨大风险。因为总是有人愿意冒着巨大的风险进行“赌博式”购买,虽然自己根本就没有偿还能力,而一旦面临数字货币暴跌,银行很可能就收不回这笔钱。
Indeed, for credit card issuers and banks, there is a great risk of allowing credit card purchases of digital money. Because people are always willing to take a huge risk of doing & ldquo; gambling & rdquo; purchasing, even though they have no solvency at all, and it is likely that banks will not be able to recover the money once they face a fall in the digital currency.
如上分析,比特币大跌背后是多种因素共振下导致的。但如果把事情仔细剖开来讲,这次的比特币大跌或许还另有它因。
As an analysis above shows, the fall in bitcoin was caused by a combination of factors. If you look at things carefully, the fall in bitcoin this time may have other reasons.
将时间轴拉长来看这次比特币下跌的时间。12月6日,比特币价格首次突破1.2万美元关口后,又接连突破1.3万美元和1.4万美元两道关口,从基本面消息看,比特币大幅上涨主要是受到了比特币期货合约启动计划的驱动。
By stretching the timeline to see when bitcoin fell. On December 6, after Bitcoin’s first breakthrough at the $12,000 mark, it was followed by a series of openings of $13,000 and $14,000. According to basic sources, the sharp rise in bitcoin was driven mainly by the start-up plan for the Bitcoin futures contract.
12月10日,芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)上线比特币期货交易。12月18日,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)推出比特币期货产品,此消息在币圈引起了剧烈反响,几乎所有人都一边倒地看好,比特币已被主流交易所接纳,这意味着普通投资者也能通过交易所参与比特币的投资,殊不知,就在冬至日,华尔街挥起了镰刀,开始收割韭菜。
On December 10, the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE) went live on the Bitcoin futures deal. On December 18, the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) launched its Bitcoin futures product, a news that triggered a sharp reaction in the currency circles, almost all of whom looked down, and that Bitcoin was accepted by the mainstream exchange, which meant that ordinary investors could also participate in Bitcoin investments through the exchange.
Coinbase网站交易数据显示,CME上线比特币期货,也就是12月18日,比特币价格最高攀升至21000美元,然而在短暂性达到顶峰那一刻,比特币开始了为期近一个月的阴跌。
The Coinbase transaction data show that on 18 December, the CME went up to the highest price of $21,000 in Bitcoin, but that bitcoin began to fall for almost a month when it reached its peak.
事实上,期货市场更像是为投机者设立的。财经学者陈思进此前在接受证券时报·创业资本汇记者采访时就表示,期货从来都不是投资,期货本身的目的就是让做投机的和做保险的对赌,所以说比特币非但没有进入主流投资市场,而是进入了一个大型的,处处布局的投机市场,危险性更强。
The futures market is, in fact, more like for speculators. Financialists think about it earlier, in an interview with the Securities Times & Middot; entrepreneurship capitalist journalists say that futures are never investments, that futures themselves are about speculation and insurance bets, so that Bitcoin, instead of entering the mainstream investment market, enters a large, well-placed, speculative market that is even more dangerous.
再反观近期的政策,以及比特币价格的下跌趋势,在某种程度上也能印证陈思进的观点。
In contrast to recent policies and the downward trend in Bitcoin prices, a thought-provoking perspective can be supported to some extent.
财经学者肖磊在其微信公众号“肖磊看市”发布的一篇文章中称:“我在11月29日的时候,在一个社群里发了一个小的分析演绎,没想到一语成谶,至少按照目前的价格,这个演义是非常准确的。”
In an article published on November 29, the financial scholar, in his micro-public & ldquao; &rdquao viewing the city & & rdquao, said: & & & & & rdquao; I had a small analytical exercise in a community on November 29, and I didn't think that the phrase was nuanced, at least at current prices, which was very accurate; & & rdquao;
肖磊分析称,1.2万美元以上,可能会陆续布局空单,直到把价格拉升到接近2万,整体空单的成本在1.6万美元左右,砸到8000美元问题不大,然后很多人会失去信仰,认为空单没有人接了,其实再从8000拉到9000买盘立马就出来了,这是空单全部平仓,收割完成,吃价格40%的波动,加上杠杆10倍的话,就是4倍的利润。
Shaw’s analysis suggests that more than $12,000 may be left empty until the price is raised to close to 20,000, that the cost of the overall blank sheet is around $16,000, that it is not a big problem to hit $8,000, that many people lose faith and think that the blank list is empty, and that it will come out from 8,000 to 9,000, that it is empty, that the harvest is complete, that 40 per cent of the price fluctuations, and that ten times the leverage would be four times the profit.
而利空加上暴跌,你想到了什么?没错,市场恐慌。一根大阴线下来,投机者想到的是庄家已经提前知道了消息,开始抛售手中的虚拟币,于是投机者恐慌性割肉。
And what do you think? That's right, the market panic. The speculator came down with the idea that the speculator had known the news in advance, started selling the virtual coin in his hand, and then the speculators were panicking about the meat cut.
于是把价格打到底,收割完这一轮再开始反手做多,把价格拉回到正常水平,行情整体回暖,当投机者再回过神来看盘面。上涨,于是又一轮追涨。
So we hit the price to the bottom, we started to do it backwards after the harvest, we pulled the price back to normal, we warmed up as a whole, and the speculator went back and looked at the table. And then went up, and then went up again.
新的韭菜重新长了起来。
The new pickles grew up again.
当我们一直在发声并提示比特币价格单边上涨背后的潜在危险时,比特币的信徒们却抱以鄙视。
As we keep talking and alerting the potential danger behind the unilateral increase in the price of bitcoin, the followers of bitcoin are scorned.
最坚定的比特币支持者,把他们挺过了之前的币值崩盘看作是一种骄傲,而比特币价格在屡创历史新高后,更坚定了他们看多的信心,这些虔诚的信徒将比特币的价值和未来视为一种信仰,一种信徒和怀疑论者之间的摩尼教式斗争。
The strongest supporters of the Bitcoin view them as pride over the previous currency collapse, and the price of the bitcoin, after its history, strengthens their confidence in what they see as the value and future of the bitcoin as a faith, a moniistic struggle between believers and skeptics.
而这种信仰,在比特币价格被反复打压拉升中,还剩下多少?如果你不懂虚拟货币,就不要想着通过投机走一夜暴富的捷径,如果你懂,并且入了圈,还是先想想如何调整自己的焦虑,毕竟比特币不像股票,它全天24小时交易,没有涨跌幅。
And this belief, in the price of bitcoin being pushed up and down again, how much is left? If you don't know the virtual currency, don't think about taking the easy way of being rich overnight by speculating, if you know it, and getting into circles, or how to adjust your anxiety. After all, bitcoin is not a stock, it deals 24 hours a day, and it doesn't go up or down.
来源:证券时报网微信(ID:wwwstcncom),记者:罗曼
注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论