比特币价格走势分析：能否守住6万美元支撑位？

比特币价格下跌趋势

Bitcoin price downward trend

比特币价格近日持续下跌，盘中下跌1.5%，过去一周下跌7.65%，于6月24日达到62,130美元。未来几天恢复这些损失的可能性似乎不大，多个指标暗示比特币价格可能会进一步下滑。

Bitcoin prices have been falling steadily in recent days, falling by 1.5%, falling by 7.65% in the past week, reaching $62,130 on 24 June. There seems to be little chance of recovering these losses in the coming days, and multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin prices may fall further.

未来比特币价格走势预测

Future Bitcoin Price Prediction

自2024年3月比特币牛市达到74,000美元的新高以来，价格一直在下行通道内盘整。每当比特币测试上方趋势线作为阻力时，都会向下方趋势线回撤。截至6月24日，BTC价格在触及72,000美元左右的上方趋势线后回调，现正走向60,000美元的心理支撑位。

Since March 2024, when the city of Bitcoin reached a new high of $74,000, prices have been rounded up down the tunnel. Every time Bitcoin tests the upper trend line as a drag, it retreats to the lower trend line. As of 24 June, BTC prices reverted to the upper trend line of $72,000 and are now heading towards $60,000 in psychological support.

有趣的是，60,000美元的下行目标更接近比特币的200天指数移动平均线（200天EMA），即58,000美元左右。这种汇合增加了BTC在7月份接近58,000-60,000美元区间的可能性。

Interestingly, the goal down to $60,000 is closer to the 200-day index moving average in Bitcoin (200-day EMA), or about $58,000. This convergence increases the likelihood that BTC will be close to $58,000-60,000 in July.

市场分析与预测

Market Analysis and Forecasting

独立市场分析师Teddy Cleps预计比特币将跌向61,000美元，因为该水平是21周EMA和历史支撑位。Cleps表示：“自BTC牛市开始以来，每次修正都会落在21周EMA上并从中反弹”，并补充道：“就在我们说话的时候，我们正在接近它，如果历史重演，61k就是底部。”

Teddy Cleps, an independent market analyst, expects Bitcoin to fall to $61,000 because it is 21 weeks of EMA and historical support. Cleps says, "Every correction since the start of the BTC Cattle City will fall on and bounce back from EMA" and adds, "Just as we speak, we're approaching it, and if history repeats, 61k is the bottom."

未来可能的支撑位与阻力位

/strang'

比特币的持续整合趋势与Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd.创始人Michael Novogratz在5月份的预测相符。他认为2024年第二季度BTC的交易价格将在55,000-75,000美元区间内。诺沃格拉茨预计，在现货美国比特币ETF的推出和比特币减半推动的牛市停滞之后，新的市场事件将推动价格走高。诺沃格拉茨表示，强劲的经济数据和对美联储降息的乐观情绪消退是当前市场暂停的原因。

The continuing consolidation trend in Bitcoin is consistent with the May forecast by Michael Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd., who argued that BTC’s trading price would be within the $55,000-75,000 range in the second quarter of 2024. Novograds predicted that new market events would push prices up after the introduction of the spot US-based Bitcoin ETF and the stagnation of the cattle market driven by the halving of Bitcoin.

与Novogratz不同的是，10x Research创始人Markus Thielen预测比特币将突破盘整区间并跌向50,000美元，理由是有可能实现双顶模式。双顶形态通常在价格跌破颈线时，下跌幅度可能等于峰值和颈线之间的距离。

Unlike Novogratz, the founder of 10xResearch, Markus Thielen, predicts that Bitcoin will break through the board and drop to $50,000, on the grounds that it is possible to achieve a double-top model. Double-top patterns can be equal to the distance between peaks and necklines when prices usually fall through the neck line.

牛市旗形模式的希望

Hopes for Cow Flag Mode

与此同时，下降通道范围看起来像一个经典的牛市旗形模式，这是在价格强劲反弹后价格在向下倾斜的范围内盘整后形成的看涨延续设置。牛市旗形通常在价格突破上趋势线并上涨至前一个上升趋势的高度后结束。如果这种看涨情况得以实现，比特币价格目标将达到88,000美元（创历史新高），作为7月或8月的主要上行目标。

At the same time, the decline in the range of routes looks like a classic cattle-market flag model, which is a continuation of the observed upswing after prices have rebounded strongly, tilted downwards. The cattle-market flag usually ends when prices break the upward trend line and rise to the previous upward trend.

此外，比特币的每日相对强弱指数（RSI）是自2023年8月以来最超卖的。这可能是潜在复苏期的前兆，从而提高了BTC达到牛旗目标的机会。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength and weakness index (RSI) has been the best sold since August 2023. This could be a precursor to a potential recovery period, thus increasing BTC’s chances of reaching the flag of cattle target.