财联社消息，2023年年初至今，比特币价格已上涨近40%，从1.6万美元飙升至2.3万美元区间。相比之下，标普500指数年内上涨近6%，纳斯达克100指数上涨超10%。
IFA reported that since the beginning of 2023, bitcoin prices have risen by almost 40 per cent, from $16,000 to $230 million. By contrast, the Papp 500 index rose by almost 6 per cent over the year, and the NASDAQ 100 index rose by more than 10 per cent.
截至发稿，比特币价格22980美元，24小时涨幅0.14%。自去年11月的低点15476美元以来，比特币反弹力度超过48.49%。
By the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was $2298, an increase of 0.14 per cent in 24 hours. Since the low of $15.476 last November, Bitcoin has rebounded more than 48.49 per cent.
然而回头看向加密货币产业，Coinbase、Crypto.com、Genesis、Matrixport等多家加密货币平台都在本月初宣布裁员，景气似乎尚未好转。
Looking back at the cryptographic money industry, however, a number of encrypted money platforms, such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, Genesis and Matirxport, announced layoffs at the beginning of this month, which seems to have not improved.
多重因素叠加促成大涨
multifactors add up
对于近期的上涨，美国证券交易委员会前互联网执法官员约翰·里德·斯塔克 (John Reed Stark)在社交媒体发文引用了《福布斯》对157家加密货币交易所的分析得出结论，近期比特币复苏中“市场操纵”发挥了巨大作用，因为比特币日交易量中大约50%是“虚假的”。
In response to the recent rise, John Reed Stark, a former Internet enforcement officer of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, quoted Forbes' analysis of 157 encrypted currency exchanges in a social media release, concluded that “market manipulation” in the recent recovery of Bitcoin had played a significant role, as about 50 per cent of the daily volume of Bitcoin was “false”.
不过，约翰·里德·斯塔克的看法遭到了加密社区的反驳。Galaxy Digital首席执行官迈克·诺沃格拉茨 (Mike Novogratz)表示，加密市场近期反弹主要因为两个因素，一是日本央行快速向市场注入流动性，二是中国香港开始重新拥抱加密货币和区块链技术，这是“2023年值得关注的叙事”。
However, John Reed Stark’s view was contradicted by the encryption community. Galaxy Digital’s CEO, Mike Novogratz, stated that the recent rebound in the encryption market was due mainly to two factors, namely, the rapid injection of liquidity into the market by the Central Bank of Japan, and the start of Hong Kong, China, to re-engineer encoded money and block chain technology, which is “an interesting narrative of 2023”.
金融科技专家蔡凯龙向元宇宙NEWS记者表示，美联储的未来不会继续再强度加息，甚至有可能在今年转为不再加息，最大的不利宏观因素已经消除；纳斯达克科技股的上涨以及加密货币里大机构爆雷的负面影响已经慢慢消除。这三个方面因素的叠加，推动了近期加密货币的上涨。
The financial science and technology expert Chai Kailong said to the NEWS journalist in the Woncosmos that the future of the Fed would not continue to increase in intensity, and that it might even be possible to move away from interest this year, and that the most adverse macro factors had been eliminated; the rise in NASDAQ's science and technology unit and the negative impact of the explosion of large agencies in crypto-currency had slowly been eliminated. The accumulation of these three factors contributed to the recent increase in encrypted currency.
值得一提的是，美国最新公布的消费者物价指数近两年以来首度由正转负达到-0.1%，外界因此看好美联储会放缓调升利率的速度，普遍预估升息脚步将放缓。
It is worth mentioning that, for the first time in almost two years, the most recently published consumer price index in the United States has reached -0.1 per cent positive or negative, and it is therefore expected that the Fed will slow the rate of interest rate increases and that the general forecast of interest increases will slow down.
为了缓解通膨影响，美联储曾在2022年里7度调升美元利率，截至2022年12月调升利率后联邦基金利率达到4.25%至4.5%，是2007年以来最高的水准。高额利率代表着更高的投资成本，导致股票、加密货币等风险性资产受到动荡。
In order to mitigate inflation, the Fed increased its interest rate to the United States dollar by 7 degrees in 2022, reaching 4.25 to 4.5 per cent, the highest rate since 2007, after raising interest rates in December 2022. High interest rates represent higher investment costs, leading to instability in risky assets such as equities, encrypted currencies, etc.
另外不可忽略的因素是，比特币将在2024年发生的产量减半，也就是减半矿工挖矿获得的比特币奖励，代表比特币产出会变得更为缓慢。
Another factor that cannot be overlooked is that Bitcoin will halve production in 2024, i.e., the bitcoin incentive for half the miners to dig, representing a slower output of bitcoin.
比特币每隔4年就会进行一次减半，按照以往的经验，减半后由于供应减少，币价都会有程度不一的涨幅。对于可预期的价格上涨，加上比特币恰好跌至近年低点，不可能不吸引投资者出手。
Bitcoin will be halved every four years, and, according to past experience, when it is halved, prices will increase to varying degrees as a result of a reduction in supply. For predictable price increases, coupled with a fall in bitcoin to a low point in recent years, it is not possible to fail to attract investors.
在莱比特矿池CEO江卓尔看来，如果2022年熊市最低点是FTX暴雷后的比特币价格为15476美元的话，那三次熊市最高点到最低点的时间非常接近，比特币4年减半导致的4年周期规律依然牢不可破。
In the view of the CEO River Djoll at Lebit, the four-year cycle pattern resulting from the halving of the four-year cycle by the four-year period between the three bear peaks and the minimum in 2022, if the lowest point in Bear City was $15476 after the FTX thunder.
江卓尔向元宇宙NEWS记者表示，从市场情绪观察，现在已经是加密货币最后的熊市底部横盘期，加密货币机构DCG等可能的暴雷已经成为明牌，已经表示对未来预期的一种定价，不会再对币价造成重大影响。
Jiangchallor has indicated to NEWS journalists in the Woncosmos that, from market sentiment observations, it is now the last time that an encrypted currency has been cut off from the bottom of the bear market, and that possible thunderbolts such as the crypto-currency agency DCG have become a sign of a price to be set for the future and will no longer have a significant impact on currency prices.
是回春还是熊市陷阱？
Is it a back spring or a bear-market trap?
不过值得注意的是，自2023年1月初反弹以来，备受熊市折磨的投资者都希望“落袋为安”。
It is worth noting, however, that since the rebound in early January 2023, investors suffering from the bear city have wanted to “slave their bags”.
根据第三方数据服务商Santiment的图表显示，目前比特币的获利回吐升至2021年2月的水平，而以太坊飙升至2021年10月的水平。2021年是加密牛市达到顶峰的一年，当时引发了大规模的获利回吐，这暗示投资者不太相信涨势会持续，可能会对当前正在经历的迷你牛市产生严重影响。
According to a chart by the third-party data provider, Santiago, the current profits of Bitcoin have risen to February 2021, and the rate of October 2021 has skyrocketed to the level of Taipan. The year 2021 was the peak of the crypto-cow market, triggering large-scale gains and vomiting, suggesting that investors are less confident that the upturn will continue and could have a serious impact on the mini-cow market, which is currently being experienced.
“现在其实是一个熊市陷阱。”一位加密货币资深玩家向元宇宙NEWS记者表示，2022年加密货币市场的下跌一致性太高，投资者都在看空，想卖都卖不掉，所以需要做一个次级反弹来提供流动性。
"Now it's a bear-market trap." A senior crypto-currency player told a journalist from the Woncosmos NEWS that the fall in the crypto-currency market in 2022 was too consistent, that investors were emptied, that they couldn't sell, and that a secondary rebound was needed to provide liquidity.
欧易研究院高级研究员赵伟也表达了同样的看法。在他看来，由于未见新增资金入场，而是场内资金回补FTX暴雷后的缺口，本轮行情只是熊市的反弹并非行情的反转。但基本可以判定加密市场大幅超跌的时期已经过去，市场已经接近底部，至于反弹可持续性以及接来下的行情走势如何，仍有待观望。
In his view, since no new funding was available, but rather the gap in the field to cover the FTX thunderstorms, this round is simply a backlash from the Bear City. But it is largely possible to judge that the period of the huge collapse of the encryption market has passed, that the market is close to the bottom, and that the sustainability of the rebound and the ensuing trends remain to be seen.
“总的来说还是信心不足，特别是美国的一些大型机构还是不敢进入加密圈。因为去年爆雷的影响太大，即使现在反弹，但（加密货币市场）从高点跌下来，很多人还是属于巨亏状态，所以涨起来的时候，他们可能会趁着高点开始退出这个市场。这个也是目前加密货币市场很大的风险所在。”蔡凯龙也向元宇宙NEWS记者表示。
“In general, there is a lack of confidence, especially that some of America’s large institutions are still afraid to enter the encryption circle. Because of the impact of the blast last year, even though it rebounded now, many people are still in a state of huge loss when they rise up from a high point, and they may start to exit the market at a high point.
蔡凯龙指出，市场的信心也没有完全恢复，因此还需要更多的涨幅、更多优秀的项目，特别是行业的热点要出来，才能会挽救大家的信心。
According to Chai Kailong, market confidence has not been fully restored, and more upscaling and excellent projects, especially industry hot spots, are needed to save confidence.
原标题：春节前后比特币反弹近50% 行情回春or熊市陷阱？
Original title: Almost 50% of Bitcoin bounced back before and after Spring Festival.
编辑：郑亚岚
Editor: Jung Ah-jung
责编：周尚斗
Editor-in-chief: Cho Sang-ho
审核：冯飞
Audit: Feng Fei
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