2023比特幣年度報告：幣價回升158%，礦業總收入超98億美元

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作者：Carol，PANews

Author: Carol, PANews

「修復」與「新生」是比特幣2023年的兩大關鍵字。一方面，在聯準會連續升息，全球財政政策緊縮，地緣局勢緊張的背景下，比特幣一改去年的下跌頹勢，進入了穩步上行通道；另一方面，在Ordinals協議的快速發展下，BRC- 20銘文火爆市場，為比特幣生態和整個產業帶來了新的生機。

“Renovation” and “rebirth” are the two key words of the bicentenary 2023. On the one hand, against a backdrop of successive increases in interest rates, tight global financial policies, and tight geophysical conditions, the bicentenary has moved into a steady upward trajectory in the wake of last year’s decline; and, on the other hand, with the rapid development of the Ordinals agreement, the BRC-20 fire market has brought new life to Bitcoin ethos and the industry as a whole.

在這樣的圖景背後，2023年比特幣的微觀發展情況究竟是怎麼樣的呢？明年可以展望哪些方面的進展？ PAData全面回顧了今年比特幣在交易市場、鏈上基本面、礦業和應用性這四大方面的數據變化。

What are the modest developments behind this picture in 2023? What are the prospects for next year?

• 交易市場

1. 2023年比特幣基本上完成了去年下跌的修復，幣價漲至4.2萬美元以上，全年漲幅高達158.06%，全年上漲趨勢非常明確，持續性強。
2. 歷史數據表明，減產與幣價上漲通常是同時出現的。比特幣將在明年4月19日迎來第四次減產，預計明年將延續上漲趨勢。
3. 87.76%的籌碼處於獲利狀態，長期持有者的獲利水準高於短期持有者的。今年比特幣的整體獲利狀況遠遠好於去年。
4. 今年比特幣的價格變化與道瓊工業指數和美元指數在整體上基本上不構成統計相關性。但在部分時段，比特幣與道瓊工業指數有一定的正相關性，與美元指數有一定的負相關性。

• 鏈上基本面

1. 今年鏈上月均活躍地址數約為94.87萬個，較去年小幅上漲了3.51%。
2. 今年比特幣一般用戶的資產分佈延續了加速小額化的趨勢，但持幣週期從長短兩極化傾斜至長期化。餘額在0.001至1BTC之間的位址數量佔了總位址數的97.24%。 2至3年的籌碼數量佔比年內增加了6.7個百分點。
3. 交易次數和交易總額分化發展。今年比特幣全年累積鏈上交易次數超1.45億次，較去年增長了63%左右；全年鏈上交易總額約為4744.98萬BTC，較去年暴跌了2547%。
4. 今年比特幣全年累積鏈上交易手續費約6.41億美元，較去年激增了367.88%。今年平均每筆交易手續費約3.77美元，較去年上漲了146.41%。

• 礦業

1. 今年，比特幣礦業的全年總收入（交易手續費和挖礦獎勵）約為98.49億美元。 12月每日平均手續費佔比激增至19.26%。
2. 今年挖礦難度增加了90.35%，全網日均算力增加了106.27%。算力漲幅小於幣價漲幅，這意味著礦業有機會獲得超額收益。

• 應用性

1. 全年累計產生的Inscriptions（銘文）已超過4946萬張。全年Inscriptions的成長有兩個高峰時間，第一個高峰時間在4月下旬至9月中旬，第二個高峰時間從10月下旬持續至今。
2. 比特幣DeFi的TVL從0.96億美元成長至2.99億美元，年內成長高達211.46%。最大的協議，閃電網路的TVL佔比從年初的87.90%下降至70.95%。比特幣生態多元化發展已經開始顯現。

市場是觀察比特幣發展最直觀的窗口。 2023年比特幣基本上完成了去年下跌的修復，幣價從年初的1.65萬美元一路上漲至年末的4.27萬美元以上，全年漲幅高達158.06%，已經接近2022年初的水平。而且，今年比特幣的上漲趨勢非常明確，持續性強，超過5%的大漲大跌少，日環比幣價變化的均值僅為0.29%，最高不超過9.77%，最低不超過-7.83%。

The market is the most visible window for observing the development of the bitcoin. In 2023, the bitcoin largely completed the repair of last year’s decline, rising from $165 million a year earlier to more than $4.27 million a year at the end of the year, up 158.06% a year, close to its early 2022’s level.

明年比特幣將迎來第四次減產，減產預期被認為是推動幣價上漲的重要動力。如果以減產前後半年（180天）各為一個週期的話，那麼前三次減產的前半年，比特幣分別上漲了134.62%、51.30%和-1.89%；減產的後半年，比特幣分別上漲了955.74% 、37.24%和72.21%。三次減產6個週期中，比特幣只在第三次減產前半年下跌了，當時為市場寒冬期，但下跌幅度仍不大。總體上，歷史數據表明，減產與幣價上漲通常是同時出現的。

Next year, Bitcoins will experience their fourth reduction, which is expected to be considered an important incentive to increase their prices. If the second half of the year preceding the reduction (180 days) were to be a week, then the first six months of the reduction would have been 134.62%, 51.30%, and -1.89%, respectively; the second half of the reduction would have been 955.74%, 37.24%, and 72.21%. In the first half of the six weeks of the reduction, Bitcoins would have fallen only in the first half of the third reduction, which was a cold winter in the market, but the decline was still modest.

根據BTC.com的預測，第四次減產預計將發生在2024年4月19日。目前，比特幣已進入減產前半年的週期（從今年10月22日開始），當天幣價為2.99萬美元，預計明年減產將為幣價上漲提供動力。

According to BTC.com, the fourth reduction is expected to take place on 19 April 2024. Currently, Bitcoins have entered the first half of the year of the reduction (starting on 22 October of this year) at $29.9 million on that date, and it is expected that next year’s reduction will provide momentum for the increase in the price of the currency.

不過，儘管今年比特幣幣價修復的趨勢十分明確，但市場交易量並未同步上漲。全年每日平均交易量約189.2億美元，年內整體呈現下降趨勢。其中，第一季交易量最高，平均值約334億美元，第四季交易量回升，平均值約176億美元。

However, despite this year’s clear trend towards the restoration of bit currency prices, the volume of market transactions did not rise in synchronous fashion. The average volume of transactions amounted to about $18.92 billion a day throughout the year, with the overall downward trend over the year. The highest volume of transactions was recorded in the first quarter, with an average of about $33.4 billion, and the fourth quarter, with an average of about $17.6 billion.

另一方面，今年比特幣的期貨市場持續活躍，未平倉總額在年內持續攀升，從年初的63.79億美元上升至年末的104.63億美元，漲幅達64.02%。但是，槓桿率反而在下降。根據CryptoQuant的數據，今年比特幣期貨市場的預估槓桿率從年初的30.67%下跌至年末的20.22%（截至12月21日），已跌回去年初的水平，基本上處於最近三年間的平均水平。

On the other hand, this year’s Bitcoin futures market has been active, with the unwinded stock rising steadily over the years, from $637.9 billion at the beginning of the year to $10,463 million at the end of the year, an increase of 64.02%. But the pole rate has been declining. According to CryptoQuant, this year’s forecast for the Bitcoins market dropped from 30.67% at the beginning of the year to 20.22% at the end of the year (as of 21 December), falling back to its early levels, largely at the average of the last three years.

MVRV是市值和實現價值的比例，如果該值大於1，則意味著當前市場價格高於籌碼交易時的“公允價格”，市場價格可能被高估。今年比特幣的MVRV從1月13日開始就持續大於1，年末升至1.96，全年平均值約為1.40。這表明，今年比特幣的市場行情基本上始終處於被高估的狀態。

MVRV is the ratio of market value to real value, which, if greater than one, would mean that the market price was higher than the “fair price” at the time of the chips deal, and the market price could be overestimated. This year's MVRV in Bitcoin continued to be larger than 1 January, rising to the end of the year to about 1.96, with an annual average of 1.40.

MVRV大於1也通常意味著更多籌碼可能處於盈利狀態。 glassnode的數據顯示，流通中的BTC的獲利籌碼佔比從年初的50.77%增長至年末的87.76%（截至12月19日），即絕大部分籌碼都處於盈利狀態。目前獲利籌碼佔比已高於去年最大值，今年比特幣的整體獲利狀況遠遠好於去年。

According to Glasnode’s data, the BTC’s profit margin in circulation has increased from 50.77% at the beginning of the year to 87.76% at the end of the year (as of December 19), i.e. most of the leverage is in a profitable position. It is now higher than last year’s maximum.

從獲利策略來看，LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR（長期持有者的產出獲利比例/短期持有者的產出獲利比例）從年初的0.61上升至年末的2.1，尤其是從10月下旬以後，這一比例幾乎始終高於1。此比值以1為分界線，比值越大表示長期持有者的獲利水準高於短期持有者的。整體上，今年長期持有者的獲利水準較佳，且越到年末這一優勢越明顯。

In terms of profit-making strategies, the LTH-SOPR/SH-SOPR (the yield ratio of long-term holders/short-term holders) rose from 0.61 at the beginning of the year to 2.1 at the end of the year, especially since late October, when the ratio was almost always higher than 1. This is a one-threshold line, which means that the longer-term holders are more profitable than the short-term holders. On the whole, the longer-term holders are better at profit than they are at the end of the year.

機構資金方面今年值得關注的是，現貨ETF的申請消息多次對比特幣交易市場產生了影響（相關閱讀《數讀比特幣ETF：5個期貨ETF總資產近13億美元，比特幣受申請消息面影響有多大？》）。申請訊息頻頻傳出，在某種程度上意味著比特幣與傳統金融市場的關聯正在加深。不過，根據統計，今年比特幣的價格變動與道瓊工業指數和美元指數在整體上基本上不構成統計相關性。其中，比特幣與兩者不相關（相關係數的7天平均值在-0.5—0.5之間）的天數分別為179天和200天，分別佔51.59%和57.64%。

In terms of institutional funds, it is worth noting this year that current ETF applications have had a number of effects on the Bitcoin trading market (relatively, reading the Bitcoin ETF: 5 future ETFs total assets close to $1.3 billion, and how much of the money is affected by the application?). The request's frequency suggests, to some extent, that the link between the bitcoins and the traditional financial market is deepening. However, according to statistics, this year's Bitcoins price changes and the Doonon Industries and dollar index are largely unorthodox on the whole. Of these, the number of days for which the Bitcoins is irrelevant (the average of seven days is between -0.5 and 0.5) is 179 and 200, respectively, 51.59 and 57.64 per cent.

不過在部分時段，比特幣與道瓊工業指數和美元指數有一定的相關性，與前者有一定的正相關性，與後者有一定的負相關性。具體而言，比特幣與兩者有弱負相關（相關係數的7天均值在-0.5—-0.8之間）的天數分別有54天和96天，分別佔比15.56%和27.67%；與兩者弱正相關（相關係數的7天均值在0.5—0.8之間）的天數分別有114天和11天，分別佔比32.85%和3.17%；與美元指數強負相關（相關係數的7天均值在-0.8以上）的天數有40天，佔11.53%。而且，從趨勢來看，今年比特幣與道瓊工業指數的相關係數呈下降趨勢，與美元指數的相關係數則呈現上升趨勢。

In some cases, however, the bitcoin is related to the Dow Joon Industries Index, which has a positive correlation with the former and a negative correlation with the latter. Specifically, the bitcoin has a weak relationship (the seven-day average is between -0.5-0.8) of 54 days and 96 days, with a difference of 15.56 and 27.67 per cent; 114 and 11 days, with a difference between the two (the seven-day average is between 0.5-0.8) and 32.85 and 3.17 per cent; and 40 days, with a difference between the strong dollar index (the seven-day average is between -0.8 and above), with a difference of 11.53 per cent.

比特幣今年鏈上月均活躍地址數約為94.87萬個，較去年月均91.65萬個小幅上漲了3.51%，但仍低於2021年的月均活躍水準。其中，今年9月和11月的日均活躍地址數都超過了100萬個，是全年最活躍的時期。

This year’s average number of lively addresses in the Bitcoins last month was approximately 948.7 million, an increase of 3.51% over the average of 91.65 million per month last year, but it is still below the average monthly rate of living standards in 2021. Of these, the average number of live addresses in September and November of this year was over 1 million, the most active in the year.

從地址餘額分佈結構和持幣時長分佈變化來看，今年比特幣一般用戶的資產分佈延續了加速小額化的趨勢，但持幣週期從長短兩極化傾斜至長期化。

In view of the changes in the residual distribution of addresses and the long-term distribution of currency holdings, this year's distribution of assets among the general users of Bitcoins has continued the trend of accelerating small fractions, but the period of currency holdings has shifted from short bipolarization to long-termization.

從位址餘額分佈結構來看，餘額在0.001至0.01BTC、0.01至0.1BTC、0.1至1BTC之間的位址數量最多，目前佔了總位址數的97.24%。也就是說，擁有1BTC相當於已經超越了97%的持幣地址。並且，這三個餘額區間的地址數量在年內分別增加了13.95%、10.92%和8.89%，增幅顯著。相反，在1BTC以上的餘額區間內，只有1至10BTC還有一定成長，年內漲幅約4.51%，其他幾乎不變。另外要注意的是，今年餘額在1萬至10萬BTC的地址數量減少了6.14%。整體上，進一步加速了小額化趨勢。

The remaining number of addresses between 0.001 to 0.01 BTC, 0.01 to 0.1 BTC, and 0.1 to 1 BTC is the largest in terms of the remaining number of addresses, which currently account for 97.24 per cent of the total number of addresses. That is, one BTC is equivalent to 97 per cent of the total. And, in addition, the number of addresses in the remaining three areas has increased by 13.95 per cent, 10.92 per cent and 8.89 per cent over the year. In contrast, only 1 to 10 BTCs in the remaining areas above 1 BTC have a certain length, with an increase of about 4.51 per cent over the year, almost unchanged. It is also noted that the remaining number of addresses in the range of 10,000 to 100,000 BTC has decreased by 6.14 per cent this year.

從持幣週期來看，目前，6個月以上是主要的持幣週期，其中6至12個月、1至2年、2至3年、3至5年、5至7年和10年以上這6個週期的籌碼佔比都超過了10%。與去年佔比變化的分界線主要在1年不同，今年佔比變化的分界線主要在2年。在2年以上的各個持幣週期週期中，2至3年的籌碼數量佔比年內增長了6.7個百分點，5至7年的籌碼數量佔年內增長了3.2個百分點，10年以上的籌碼數量佔比年內成長了2.2個百分點。但相反，今年小於24小時和1週至1個月這兩個週期的籌碼數量佔比的年內增發都遠小於去年。整體上，持幣週期的短期化趨勢沒有延續趨勢，但長期化趨勢得到了加強。

At present, 6 to 12 months or more are the main periods of currency holding, ranging from 6 to 12 months, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 5, 5 to 7 and 10 years or more, accounting for more than 10% of the six periods. Unlike last year’s deceleration, which is 2.2 centimeters longer than the previous year, this year’s deceleration is mainly two years. In the periods of 2 to 3 years, the number of chips growing by 6.7 cents over the year, and 5 to 7 years over the year, the number of chips growing by 3.2 cents over the year.

另一個與去年大為不同的鏈上趨勢是交易次數和交易總額分化發展。今年比特幣全年累積鏈上交易次數超1.45億次，較去年全年的8,899萬次成長了63%左右，漲幅十分明顯。今年月均累計交易次數1,214.1萬次，年內呈現逐月成長態勢。

This year, the Bitcoins traded more than 145 million times throughout the year, some 63% more than the previous year’s 88,99 million transactions. This year’s average of 12,141,000 transactions was counted.

但是，超高的鏈上交易次數並沒有帶來同步成長的交易總額。今年比特幣全年鏈上交易總額約4,744.98萬BTC，折價約1.34兆美元。幣本位交易總額較去年12.56億BTC暴跌了2547%。今年月均累計交易總額約395.4萬BTC，折價約1,119.7億美元。

However, the number of transactions on the superhigh chain did not bring up the sum of transactions that have grown in synchronous length. This year, the total amount of transactions on the Bits chain was approximately $47,498 million, at a discount of about $1.34 trillion. The total value of local currency transactions fell by 2547% compared to the previous year's 1,256 million BTC. This year's average cumulative amount of transactions was about $3.954 million BTC, at a discount of approximately $11,197 billion.

交易次數和交易總額分化發展的原因主要在於Ordinals協議的爆發，其帶來的另一個結果是，交易手續費激增。今年比特幣全年累積鏈上交易手續費約6.41億美元，較去年1.37億美元激增了367.88%。其中，今年的交易手續費主要來自5月、11月和12月（截至12月19日），這三個月的交易手續費都超過了1億美元，合計佔全年手續費收入的70.16% 。

This year’s transaction costs on the Bitcoins stock chain rose by 367.8% compared to last year’s $137 million. This year’s transaction costs came mainly from May, November, and December (as of December 19), when they all exceeded $100 million, accounting for 70.16% of the year’s revenue.

今年平均每筆交易手續費約3.77美元，較去年1.53美元上漲了146.41%。年內平均每筆交易手續費從0.62美元激增至26.72美元，漲幅高達4,182%。高峰一度超過37美元。可以說，今年比特幣鏈上交易成本大幅提高了。

This year, the average transaction fee was approximately $3.77, up 146.41% from last year's $1.53. The average transaction fee rose from $0.62 to $26.72, up 4,182%. The peak was over $37.

礦業一直以來都是區塊鏈產業中的重要組成部分。今年，比特幣礦業的全年總收入（交易手續費和挖礦獎勵）約為98.49億美元。其中11月單月的總收入達到了11.58億美元，整體上，年內礦業收入呈現成長趨勢。

The mining industry has been an important part of the chain industry. This year, the total annual income of the Bitcoin mining industry (trading fees and mining prizes) was about $9,849 million.

與Ordinals引發的交易熱潮相一致，年內礦業收入的手續費比例也呈現兩個高峰。第一個高峰為5月，日均手續費佔比達到了12.74%，第二個高峰為11月至12月，每日平均手續費佔比分別達到了11.80和19.26%。可以預期的是，如果明年挖礦獎勵減半，但Ordinals引發的交易熱潮仍持續的話，那麼交易手續費佔比可能進一步提高。

In line with the boom in trade triggered by Ordinals, the annual rate of revenue from the mining industry has reached two peaks. The first peak in May was 12.74% per day, and the second peak in November-December was 11.80% and 19.26% per day per day. What can be expected is that if the mining prizes are reduced by half next year, but the tide of transactions generated by Ordinals continues, the transaction costs are likely to increase even further.

從成本來看，今年礦業面臨難度和算力持續上漲的局面。今年全年比特幣網路的挖礦難度調整了26次，其中上調19次，連續上調期集中在2月下旬至4月下旬和9月中旬至11月下旬這兩個時間區間內。去去年相比，今年挖礦難度上調次數更多，上調幅度也更大。

In terms of cost, this year’s mining industry has been experiencing difficulties and rising arithmetic. Twenty-six adjustments to the Bitcoin network have been made throughout the year, 19 of them upwards, with successive increases concentrated between late February and late April, and between mid-September and late November.

全網目前挖礦難度約為67.31T，較年初成長了90.35%。同步成長的還有全網日均算力，目前約562.1 EH/s，較年初成長了106.27%。與去年全網日均算力僅溫和上漲11.21%不同，今年算力漲幅十分明顯。而且，更需要比較的是，今年算力漲幅還小於幣價漲幅，這意味著礦業有機會獲得超額報酬。

This year’s increase is clear, unlike last year’s average increase of just 11.21%. And, even more so, this year’s increase in value is smaller than the rise in currency prices, which means that the mining industry has an opportunity to get overpaid.

根據BTC.com的統計，截至12月22日，在PPS模式下，比特幣礦池每日每T算力的挖礦收益約為0.00000187 BTC，折合約0.082美元，在FPPS模式下，比特幣礦池每日每T算力的挖礦收益約0.00000268 BTC，折合約0.11美元。依照COINMETRICS的統計，比特幣單位算力的挖礦收益（註：交叉比對後，此收益與FPPS模式的收益接近）年內成長了85.21%。整體而言，今年礦業收入可觀。

According to BTC.com, as of December 22, in the PPS model, the profits from mining per T-based by Bitcoin are estimated at 0.0000187 BTC per day, or about 0.082 US dollars, and in the FPPS mode, the revenues from mining per T-based by Bitcoin are estimated at 0.0000268 BTC, or about 0.11. According to COINMETRICS, the profits from mining by the Bitcoin unit based on COINMETRICS (note: after cross-comparison, the returns are close to the FPPS model) have grown by 85.21% over the year.

比特幣的應用程式落地一直以來都沒有太多想像。過去，比特幣的應用性主要體現在閃電網路和WBTC上，今年隨著Ordinals的興起，比特幣應用程式發展的前景開闊了起來。

Bitcoins applications have been on the ground for too long. In the past, the Bitcoins apps are now on the Lightning Network and on the WBTC, and this year, with the rise of Ordinals, the prospects for the development of the Bitcoins apps have grown.

首先，從最熱門的Ordinals來看，截至12月19日，累計產生的Inscriptions（銘文）已超過4946萬張，要知道這個數值在年初僅為4。全年Inscriptions的成長有兩個高峰時間，第一個高峰時間在4月下旬至9月中旬，第二個高峰時間從10月下旬持續至今。在高峰期，單日新增Inscriptions的數量多日超過40萬張，最高一度超過50萬張。

First, according to the most popular Ordinals, as of December 19, the accumulated number of Inscriptions was more than 4.46 million, and it was only 4 at the beginning of the year. The number of Inscriptions grew at two peaks, the first between late April and mid-September, and the second peak from late October to the present. At the peak, the number of Inscriptions added on a single day was more than 400,000, and the highest was 500,000.

從類型上看，圖片（image）和文字（text）是兩個主要形式，前者指向了類似NFT的圖片，後者則衍生出了BRC-20代幣。在Ordinals剛面世時，圖片是主要類型。一季度，圖片共有37.8萬個，而文字只有27萬個。但從4月以後，這個格局迅速反轉，文本成了主流。二至四季度，文字共有4714萬個，而圖片只有106.7萬個。這背後與ORDI等BRC-20代幣的造富效應分不開。

In terms of type, the image (image) and text (text) are the two main forms, the former pointing to a NFT-like image, and the latter deriving BRC-20. When Ordinals first appeared, the image was the main type. There were 378,000 images in one quarter, compared to 270,000 in text. Since April, the pattern was quickly reversed and the text became mainstream. In the second to fourth quarters, there were 4,714,000 text, compared to 1,067,000.

目前，BRC-20的火熱仍在持續，圖片類Inscriptions的交易市場也在逐步發展，與更成熟的ERC-20和NFT市場相比，比特幣生態的發展還有很大的空間，尤其是BRC-20的出現，讓一些人看到了類似以太坊DeFi Summer的熱度。

Currently, BRC-20 is still hot, and the trading market for images of Inscriptions is developing, and there is still a lot of room for the development of Bitcoins in comparison with the more mature markets of ERC-20 and NFT, especially the appearance of BRC-20, which allows some to see heat similar to that of DeFi Summer.

從比特幣DeFi的TVL來看，今年從0.96億美元成長至2.99億美元，年內成長高達211.46%。最高TVL一度超過3億美元。而且，值得關注的數據是，比特幣上最大的協議，閃電網路的TVL佔比從年初的87.90%下降至70.95%，結合總TVL的成長，這意味著比特幣網路中出現了更多的應用，並且這些應用的TVL正在快速成長。

According to Bitcoin DeFi's TVL, this year grew from $96 million to $299 million, rising to 21,146 per cent every year. The highest TVL was once more than $300 million. Also, it is worth noting that the biggest agreement on Bitcoins, the share of Flashnet TVLs fell to 70.95 per cent from 87.90 per cent at the beginning of the year, and the combined TVLs grew, which means that more applications are available in Bitconet, and that the applications of TVLs are growing rapidly.

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