作者： 10x Research
Author: 10x Research
編譯：Felix, PANews
This post is part of our special coverage Egypt Protests 2011.
今天的標題引起了在2017年或2021年交易山寨幣的所有人共鳴。 10x Research分析了115種代幣，平均價格已從2024年的高點下跌了50%。正如下面解釋的那樣，除非加密貨幣的流動性得到改善，否則下跌將更加嚴重。比特幣（-11%）和以太坊（-13%）表現良好，隨著更聰明的交易員從山寨幣轉向這兩種代幣，二者可能會因此而受益（在過去兩個週期中發生過）。
As explained below, unless the movement of the encrypted currency improves, the decline will be even worse. Bitcoin (-11%) and Ether (-13%) are doing well, with smarter traders moving from the mountain coins to the two, which may benefit from both.
市值前115名的代幣：從2024年高點回落（比特幣僅回落11% ）
, formerly known as strong >115 : from strong > 2024 > strong < strong < strong < strong > > ; 11% )
在山寨幣熊市中倖存的關鍵因素之一是有效的風險管理。代幣解鎖和不利的流動性指標是此次山寨幣崩盤的主要誘因。
One of the key factors that survived in the city is effective risk management. The de-locking of the currency and the negative flow index are the main inducements for the fall.
上週是加密領域的關鍵時刻，也是2024年最關鍵的一週之一。加密貨幣，尤其是山寨幣大幅下跌。市場很難消化Aptos 9700萬美元、IMX 5100萬美元、STRK 7500萬美元、SEI 6200萬美元、ARB 9000萬美元、APE 1800萬美元和UNI 9000萬美元的大量代幣解鎖，總計4.83億美元。早期投資者和創投似乎面臨套現的壓力。這些資金流正在拖累比特幣。
Last week was a crucial time for encryption, and one of the most critical weeks in 2024. Encryption currency, especially in the mountains, fell sharply. Markets have been hard to absorb Aptos 97 million, IMX 51 million, STRK 75 million, SEI 62 million, ARB 90 million, APE 18 million and UNI 90 million dollars in large amounts of currencies, amounting to $483 million.
此外，比特幣礦工已經開始出售其比特幣庫存，交易所的ETH餘額增加了25億美元，這之前與潛在的拋壓有關。儘管通膨數據好轉，但比特幣ETF出現大量淨流出（5天約流出6.6億美元）。各個細分領域（穩定幣、期貨槓桿、ETF等）的整體淨流量為-24億美元，這是自2024年1月ETF推出以來第三週淨流量下降。
In addition, Bitcoin miners have already started selling their bitcoin deposits, and the exchange’s balance of ETH has increased by $2.5 billion, which had to do with potential dumping. Despite good inflation, Bitcoin’s ETF has been released in large quantities (about $660 million in five days).
5月8日，10x Research發出了警告，「小心代幣解鎖。風投基金會縮短山寨幣週期嗎?，因為在未來十週內，價值近20億美元的代幣將迅速解鎖。這可能會降低山寨幣市場的價格。隨著人工智慧成為一個更熱門的領域，這些基金現在面臨著投資者要求返還資本的壓力。
On May 8, 10xResearch issued a warning, saying, "Be careful to unlock the currency. Will wind-drop funds shrink the period of the coins? Because, in the next 10 weeks, nearly $2 billion worth of coins will be quickly unlocked.
如今，山寨幣正處於殘酷的熊市。 2024年，這115種代幣中有73%的代幣在3月達到高峰。但在3月初，情況發生了變化。在市值排名前115的代幣中，有17%（左側）在3月14日達到高峰（現在全部出現了下跌）。
In 2024, 73% of these 115 coins peaked in March. But at the beginning of March, the situation changed.
2024年3月初，比特幣達到了潛在年底目標7萬美元。去年，10x Research預測了2023年的年終目標是4.5萬美元。在2022年10月，預測了比特幣將在2024年減半時上漲到6.3萬美元。更高的目標（12.5萬美元）可以透過量化分析得出，但加密市場流動性的萎縮正在阻礙市場的發展。
By the beginning of March 2024, Bitcoins had reached a potential target of $70,000 by the end of the year. Last year, 10 x Research predicted an end-of-year target of $45,000 for 2023. In October 2022, Bitcoins were projected to rise to $63,000 by half in 2024. The higher target ($125,000) could be derived from quantitative analysis, but the decline in encrypted market mobility is blocking market development.
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