时至今日，在华强北销售矿机会是一份悠闲的工作。
To this day, selling mine opportunities in North Hua is a leisure job.
竞争对手越来越少，留守在卖场的多数是掌握了一手货源的经销商，被比特币币价支配的焦躁感越来越少，把销售矿机当投机、赌博的人越来越少，矿机和其它电子产品越来越相像了。
There are fewer competitors, most of those left in the mall are dealers with a single source of goods, less and less anxious to be at the price of bitcoin, fewer and fewer to sell mine machines as speculation, gambling, and more and more like mine machines and other electronics.
但毫无疑问的是，不同于其它电子产品，矿机最重要的价值是投资价值。挖矿所得的虚拟币价值减去购机和电费等成本，是一台矿机所能产生的收益。对于所有矿机厂商、经销商和矿工来说，5月12日格外重要。这一天比特币将迎来史上第三次减半。
But certainly, unlike other electronics, the most important value of a miner is the value of investment. The value of a virtual currency from a mine, less the cost of a machine and electricity, is the benefit that a miner can generate.
挖矿潮发生在比特币第二次减半和第三次减半即2016年至2020年间，种种变量使得挖矿产业不确定性进一步升高：比特币产量的减少意味着挖矿难度变高，但减半后比特币的稀缺性往往会推动币价上涨。
Digging flows occur between the second and third halves of Bitcoin, between 2016 and 2020, with variables that further increase uncertainty in the mining industry: the reduction in bitcoin production means that mining is more difficult, but the scarcity of bitcoins tends to drive up currency prices when halved.
截至发稿，比特币最新报价为8605.19美元，24小时涨幅为下跌1.67%。
By the time of issuance, the latest bid for Bitcoin was $8605.19, a decrease of 1.67 per cent over the 24-hour period.
早在4月，蚂蚁矿机一位经销商对第一财经表示，现在生意已经很少了，商场闭市、客户变少，公司主要在做售后维护，公司期待5月12日比特币减半后市场的明朗。
As early as April, an ant miner, a distributor of the first book, indicated that business was now scarce, that the mall was closed, that the customers were fewer, that the company was mainly engaged in post-sale maintenance, and that the company looked forward to the clarity of the market after the halving of Bitcoin on 12 May.
矿机厂商推陈出新
The miner's making a new deal.
市场上销量最好的矿机是比特大陆的蚂蚁矿机。为了迎接比特币第三次减半，比特大陆适时推出了新矿机。
The best-selling miner on the market is an ant mine on the Bit continent. In time for the third half of Bitcoin, a new miner was launched on the Bit continent.
3月23日下午2点，比特大陆官网开始发售S19系列新品矿机，S19 Pro的算力为110 TH/s，能效比为29.5 J/TH±5%，官方售价为20770元人民币；S19的算力为95 TH/s，能效比为34.5 J/TH±5%，官方售价为15495元人民币。S19最早发货时间在比特币减半的前一天，即5月11日至5月20日。
On 23 March, at 2 p.m., the Bit Continental Officer Network began the sale of the S19 series of new minerals, with an energy efficiency ratio of 110 TH/s, with an energy efficiency ratio of 29.5 J/TH ~ 5 per cent and an official sales price of RMB 20770; and an energy efficiency factor of 95 TH/s, with an energy efficiency ratio of 34.5 J/TH ~ 5 per cent and an official sales price of RMB 15495. The earliest delivery time of S19 was the day before the halving of Bitcoin, i.e. 11 May to 20 May.
在发售新矿机时，比特大陆也在停止先前矿机的维护。比特大陆通过微信公众号宣布，于5月10日起停止对S9机型提供维修服务。
At the time of the release of the new miner, the maintenance of the previous miner was also stopped in Bit continent. By means of a micro-message public, Bitland announced that maintenance services for the S9 model would cease on 10 May.
S9是征战矿场的老兵，在华强北一度炙手可热，是市场上最为畅销也最为知名的比特币矿机，销售矿机的档口大概率要将S9写在小黑板上以吸引来客。
S9 is a veteran of war mines, and was once hot in North Hua, the best-selling and most well-known Bitcoin miner in the market, and it is likely that S9 will be written on the blackboard to attract guests.
2017年下半年比特币迎来一轮飞涨，当年12月比特币一度突破2万美元大关。那也是比特币矿机最为畅销的时候，S9出厂价为9700元，当时被市场炒至3万元的高价。可即便这样，S9依旧一机难求有价无市。可伴随着币价的走低，S9价格也经历了回落。2019年2月S9售价最低仅为600元，大量矿机卖家凭借S9发家，又在S9上栽了跟头。
Bitcoin surged in the second half of 2017, when it broke the 20,000 dollar threshold in December. It was also the best seller of the Bitcoin machine, with S9 at $9,700, when the market fired it to $30,000.
比特大陆表示，蚂蚁矿机在全球拥有超过4万名使用过S9系列产品的客户，S9覆盖全球70%以上国家和地区。而今这款矿机要退出历史舞台。
According to the Bit continent, the ant mine has more than 40,000 customers worldwide who have used the S9 series of products, and S9 covers more than 70% of the world’s countries and territories. Today, the mine is leaving the historical stage.
矿机厂商间的竞争也在加剧。如果是2018年，所有卖家都认同一件事：蚂蚁矿机虽然售价高于同行，但能耗低，并且有着稳定的售后；神马矿机、阿瓦隆售价相对便宜，能够很快回本，但能耗较高售后也不稳定。到2020年以后，经销商开始告诉买家，神马矿机也有着良好的售后。丰水期电价比较便宜时，能耗高但售价低的神马矿机更受欢迎。
In 2018, all sellers agreed on one thing: the ant mine, although sold at a higher price than their counterparts, is less energy-intensive and stable after sale; the pony mine, Avalon, sells relatively cheaply and can return quickly, but it is unstable after higher energy consumption. After 2020, the distributors began to tell buyers that the pony miner was also well sold. When the water boom was cheaper, the energy-intensive but low-priced pony miner was more popular.
经销商等待新的机会
2020年，矿机市场已经变得平和下来，留守在矿机市场的多半是最早入场的人。他们见证了矿机在2017年变得炙手可热，在2018年跌宕起伏，又于2019年逐渐平息，2020年他们更多是把矿机当成一门生意而非投机。
By 2020, the miner market had become calm, and most of the people left behind in the miner market were the first to enter. They witnessed that the miner became hot in 2017, fell and fell in 2018, subsided in 2019, and that in 2020 it was more of a business rather than speculation.
但这一年他们面临着更大的挑战。受疫情影响，华强北卖场直到3月上旬仍是闭市状态；市场开市时，客户已经很少了。实际上大量矿机买家来自海外，疫情在海外的发酵使得海外买家无法如常来到中国。
But they faced even greater challenges this year. As a result of the epidemic, the North Shop was closed until early March; when the market opened, there were few customers.
在华强北赛格电子市场销售矿机的王先生告诉第一财经，公司有海外订单，可问题是货物无法完成报关和出关；4月份之前主要做国内生意，可国内订单也非常少，一台矿机利润最低只有20元左右。
Mr. Wang, who sold mine machines at the North Seygor e-Market in Hua Xiang, told the First Bank that the company had overseas orders, but the problem was that goods could not be declared and cleared; before April, they were mainly domestic businesses, but domestic orders were very low, with a miner having a minimum profit of around $20.
“难了你也得做啊，做生意就是有赔有赚啊，你不能赔钱了就走，那有钱赚的时候没你的份儿了——再说不做这个你干嘛啊。”王先生称。
"You've got to do it, you've got to do it, you've got to do it, you can't do it, you can't do it, you don't do it, you don't do it." Mr. Wang said.
比较幸运的是，赛格电子市场为商户提出了减租的措施，公司尚能赚到钱。王先生做了一次推算，即便商场收租，公司每个月也能赚5000元左右，这与巅峰时期的收入自然没法比，但他已经习惯了币价和利润的波动。
Fortunately, Seger's e-market offers rent-cutting measures for business owners, and the company can still make money. Mr. Wang made a calculation that, even if the store collected the rent, the company would earn about $5,000 a month, which is naturally not comparable to the income of the peak period, but he has become accustomed to fluctuations in currency prices and profits.
2018年下半年到2019年上半年，比特币币价一路走低，王先生每天都会盯着手机看交易所同步的币价，这决定了矿机价格。彼时，焦虑的情绪弥漫在整个市场间。越来越多的卖家离开，但也有人留守。这对市场的影响是倒卖矿机的人越来越少了，“其实倒货是挣不到钱的，赚很小的差价，我们不会倒货，风险太高太不划算了。”王先生称。
Between the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2019, the price of bitcoin went down, and Mr. Wang looked at his cell phone every day at the price of the same exchange, which determined the price of the miner. On the other hand, anxiety prevailed across the market. More and more sellers left, but others remained.
留下来的多是头部选手。“我们是有几千万元的预付款在厂商的，这样我们能拿到现货，小的经销商没这么多资金交货款，他们未必能找到现货。”一位经销商告诉第一财经。
Most of those left behind are head players. “We have tens of millions of dollars in advance, so that we can get the cash, and the small distributors don't have that much money, and they may not be able to find the cash.” A dealer told the First Dealer.
早在4月份，王先生对第一财经表示，公司最重要的事是完成前期矿机的售后，公司等待比特币减半后的新机会。
As early as April, Mr. Wang stated to the First Economy that the most important thing for the company was to complete the sale of the pre-mining machines and wait for new opportunities after the halving of Bitcoin.
5月12日凌晨3：30，比特币会迎来历史上第三次减半。这一天变得格外重要，以至于5月11日，华强北最主要的矿机卖场赛格广场仍会新增一家主营矿机的档口。
At 3.30 a.m. on 12 May, Bitcoin will be halved for the third time in its history. This day has become so important that, on 11 May, the main mine in the north of China, Sage Square, will have a new main miner.
但是也有矿机卖家对比特币减半带来的机会不以为然，“减半不一定会带来币价波动，最主要的还是币价，比特币最新价格大概6万元，涨到7万元的话一台机器大概能贵一两千块吧。”
But there is also an opportunity for a miner to halve the amount of bitcoin, which is “not necessarily the price of currency, but the most important is the price of currency, which is about $60,000, and a machine that rises to $70,000 would probably cost about one or two thousand dollars.”
减半后的故事
Half the story.
比特币总量恒定，减半是指新区块获得奖励减半。比特币在历史上曾有两次减半，第一次减半发生在2012年11月28日，比特币奖励从50BTC降至25BTC；第二次减半发生在2016年7月9日，比特币奖励从25BTC降至12.5BTC；此次减半将会使比特币奖励从12.5BTC降至6.25BTC。
The amount of bitcoin remains constant, with half of the new block receiving the incentive. Bitcoin has been halved twice in history, the first on 28 November 2012, from 50 BTC to 25 BTC; the second on 9 July 2016, from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC; this time, it will reduce bitcoin from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
“比特币每次减半后都会迎来一波大牛市，比特币第一次减半迎来2013年的比特币牛市，涨幅接近2000%；第二次减半迎来2017年比特币牛市，涨幅接近3000%。基于前两次减半后迎来比特币大牛市的历史经验，很多市场投资者都对本次减半后的比特币市场行情看好。尽管3月末的市场大跌对很多比特币投资者的打击很大，但随后市场开始逐渐反弹，从3800美元的低位依次突破7000，8000，9000美元的位置。”OKEx Research首席研究员William对第一财经表示。
“Betcoin will be followed by a wave of big cows every time it is halved, with Bitcoin for the first time approaching the 2013 Bitcoin by nearly 2000%, and the second by half by nearly 3,000% in 2017. Based on the historical experience of Bitcoin for the first two halves, many market investors look well at the Bitcoin market after the current half. Although the fall in the market at the end of March struck many bitcoin investors, the market began to rebound, breaking its low position from $3800 to $70,000,900.
投资者用脚投票，给了未来看涨预期。5月8日比特币突破10000美元大关，为2月24日以来首次。但5月10日上午，比特币出现闪崩迹象，一度跌至8200美元。
Investors voted with their feet, giving rise to expectations for the future. Bitcoin broke the $10,000 mark on 8 May, for the first time since 24 February. But on the morning of 10 May, Bitcoin showed signs of collapse, once falling to $8,200.
“这段时间全球疫情的逐步控制、流动性危机的缓解，再叠加减半利好，导致了市场的非理性繁荣，而非理性繁荣下的资产价格，往往最容易崩盘。”William称。
“The gradual control of the global epidemic, the easing of the liquidity crisis and the doubling of the benefits by half have led to irrational market booms, rather than the price of assets under rational booms, which are often the most prone to collapse.” William said.
3月中旬，比特币市场的暴跌使得相对强弱指标（RSI）低于30，表明市场处于超卖状态，价格已经到达了市场低位，未来将迎来反弹；而在5月7日，RSI指标超过80，表明市场处于超买状态，侧面反映了比特币市场的火热，也预示着比特币价格的即将回调。
In mid-March, the sharp fall in the Bitcoin market caused a relatively strong and weak indicator (RSI) to fall below 30, indicating that the market was oversale, that prices had reached market lows and that the future would rebound; on 7 May, the RSI target exceeded 80, indicating that the market was oversale, reflecting the heat of the Bitcoin market on the side, and heralding a forthcoming return of Bitcoin prices.
挖矿的热潮发生在比特币第二次减半即2016年至2020年间，无数造富神话因此诞生。可那个狂热时代或许不会再出现了。
The boom in mining occurred between 2016 and 2020, the second halving of Bitcoin, and the birth of countless myths about wealth creation. But that era of fanaticism may not happen again.
“前两次减半后都迎来比特币大牛市，所以很多人都对本次减半后的比特币牛市抱有期待。但实际上，由于比特币减半带来的产量下跌没有前两次那么明显，本次减半对比特币市场带来的影响是没有前两次这么大的，所以是否会出现新一轮的造富神话，还需要进一步观察。”William称。
“By the first two halves, many people look forward to the first half of the Bitcoin. But, in fact, given that the drop in production from the first two halves is less pronounced, the impact of the second half of the Bitcoins market is less significant than the first two times, and whether a new round of myths of wealth will emerge.” William says.
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