原标题：比特币价格大起大落下投资者生态圈： 沽空者、退出者与留守者的博弈

本报记者 陈植 上海报道

The newspaper reporter, Chen Shik, reported in Shanghai.

截至1月22日19时，比特币价格徘徊在11724美元附近，这意味着今年以来短短3周内，比特币价格从年内高点17090美元持续滑落，跌幅超过31%。其间比特币价格曾一度触及9280.3美元年内低点。

As at 1900 hours on 22 January, bitcoin prices hovered around $11,724, meaning that, in just three weeks since the year, bitcoin prices continued to fall by more than 31 per cent from an annual high of $17090. At one point, bitcoin prices reached a year-long low of $928.3.

不过，选择离场的投资者却不多。

However, few investors chose to leave the site.

“现在除了此前参与追涨的美国、韩国、日本大妈纷纷止损离场，多数专业投资者宁愿选择留守。”一家国内比特币交易平台负责人告诉21世纪经济报道记者。究其原因，是这些专业投资者主要来自IT与金融领域，一方面他们持币成本普遍较低，这轮比特币价格大起大落并未触及他们持仓成本，足以确保他们继续留守；另一方面他们此前也经历过2008年次贷危机等金融市场大动荡，对比特币价格大幅波动风险有着全面认知，不大会轻易追涨杀跌。

“Most professional investors now prefer to remain behind, except for those who were previously involved in the surge in the United States, South Korea, and Japan.” The head of a domestic Bitcoin trading platform told 21st Century economic reporters. The reason for this is that these professional investors come mainly from the IT and financial fields, on the one hand, where the cost of holding the currency is generally low, on the other hand, the price of this round of bitcoin does not touch their warehousing costs enough to ensure their continued presence; and, on the other hand, they have previously experienced financial market turmoil, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, where the risk of large price volatility is fully recognized, and the General Assembly is not easy to follow.

记者多方了解到，这些投资者甚至还布局抄底比特币。

Journalists have learned that these investors have even copied Debitcoin.

Fundstrat Global Advisors联合创始人、前摩根大通首席股票策略师Tom Lee坦言自己就是逢低买入比特币的激进投资者。在他看来，比特币存在暴跌之后必然暴涨的价格波动规律，因此他认为2018年底比特币价格将比现在至少翻倍，达到2.5万美元。

The founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, formerly Morgan Chase’s chief stock strategist, Tom Lee, confessed that he was a radical investor who bought bitcoin at a low price. In his view, Bitcoin was bound to surge in price volatility after a sharp fall, so he believed that by the end of 2018 Bitcoins would have at least doubled its price to $25,000.

在一家全球性新金融产业基金高级合伙人看来，尽管Tom Lee的预估颇为“夸张”，但比特币的商业应用范围可能仍在扩大。

According to a senior partner in a global new financial industry fund, despite Tom Lee's “exaggeration” estimate, the commercial application of Bitcoin is likely to continue to expand.

“不过，即便比特币应用日益广泛，但它要成为主流支付结算投资货币的征途依然漫长，加之比特币等加密数字货币存在价格波动较大，投机氛围浓厚等特点，全球金融监管部门仍倾向采取从严监管措施，令比特币投资风险大幅增加。”一位美国投行人士向21世纪经济报道记者直言。加之越来越多加密数字货币不断兴起日益削弱比特币的投资价值与稀缺性，导致比特币未来升值前景更加充满不确定性。

“However, even though the use of bitcoin is becoming more widespread, its journey to become a mainstream payment settlement investment currency is still long, and the price volatility of encrypted digital currencies, such as bitcoins, and a strong climate of speculation, are characterized by a tendency on the part of global financial regulators to adopt stringent regulatory measures that will increase the investment risk of bitcoins.” A US investor has spoken out to journalists in the 21st century’s economy.

退出者与留守者

Quiters and those left behind

在业内人士看来，今年以来比特币价格大跌逾30%，与金融强监管有着密切关系。

According to industry, the price of bitcoin has fallen by more than 30 per cent since this year, and is closely linked to strong financial regulation.

一方面美国财政部金融稳定监管委员会（FSOC）已针对比特币等虚拟货币成立工作组，以评估其对投资者的风险，以及这类资产可能带来的负面影响。另一方面欧盟金融监管机构欧洲证券及市场管理局（ESMA）表示，正在研究以数字货币为基础的CFDs（一种差价合约、追踪标的资产价格的复杂金融产品）是否属于其监管范围内的金融工具，若ESMA认为比特币CFDs属于金融衍生品，则有权取缔其违规行为。

On the one hand, the United States Treasury Department’s Financial Stability Regulatory Commission (FSOC) has set up working groups on virtual currencies such as Bitcoin to assess their risk to investors, and the possible negative impact of such assets. On the other hand, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the European Union’s financial regulator, has indicated that it is studying whether CFCs (a complex financial product based on digital currency contracts, tracking the price of the targeted assets) are among the financial instruments under its supervision, and if ESMA considers Bitcoins CFCs to be financial derivatives, it has the authority to combat their violations.

市场另有消息，鉴于比特币等加密数字货币金融工具存在剧烈波动性，欧洲监管机构正在研究是否针对这类产品采取更严格的杠杆率限制（2：1或1：1），甚至禁止产品营销；此外，ESMA还在考虑完全禁止基于数字货币的CFDs发行。

There is also news in the market that, given the volatility of encrypted digital monetary instruments, such as bitcoin, European regulators are studying whether to apply stricter leverage limits (2:1 or 1:1) to such products, or even to prohibit their marketing; in addition, ESMA is considering a total ban on the issuance of CFCs based on digital currencies.

与此同时，韩国、印度、中国等金融监管部门也加强比特币等加密数字货币场外交易与衍生品交易的监管力度。比如韩国将向加密数字货币交易所征收24.2%的高额税率，进而控制比特币等加密数字货币交易规模，并推动交易者实名制，阻断其借比特币进行资产跨境转移的暗道；印度银行对排名前十的本土比特币交易所账户暂停交易，原因是银行认为这些账户存在可疑交易，此外印度税务部门也酝酿向加密数字货币投资者征税。

At the same time, financial regulators in Korea, India, China, etc., have strengthened the regulation of transactions with derivatives 期货正式上线交易，2018年1月17日是首批比特币期货合约的到期日。

On 11 December last year, the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOE) Bitcoin , the expiry date of the first Bitcoin futures contract, 17 January 2018.

令市场惊讶的是，CFTC数据显示，截至1月9日当周（即比特币期货合约到期前一周），CBOE比特币期货合约投机性空头突然占据上风，当周比特币期货的投机性净空仓增加至1907张合约，其间比特币价格曾一度跌至9000美元附近。

Surprisingly for the market, CFTC data show that, by 9 January (i.e. one week before the expiration of the Bitcoin futures contract), the speculative void in the CBOE futures contract suddenly prevailed, when speculatory silo of the weekly currency futures increased to 1907 contracts, when the price of the Bitcoin fell close to $9,000.

此外，大部分成交量和未平仓合约都集中在1月初发生，表明空头在1月悄然在期货市场建立大量比特币空头头寸，等待价格大跌与合约到期，坐收沽空巨额利润。最终，今年以来比特币价格大跌逾30%，让他们赚得盆满钵满。

Moreover, most of the deals and the unsavory contracts were concentrated in early January, indicating that the empty head created a large amount of bitcoins in the futures market in January, waiting for prices to fall and contracts to expire, and to reap large profits. Eventually, the price of bitcoins has fallen by more than 30% since this year, making them full of money.

这背后，是比特币持仓高度集中，令个别手握巨量比特币的资本市场大鳄能轻松操纵价格牟利。

Behind this is the high concentration of bitcoin holdings, which allows the gators of capital markets who hold large bitcoins to easily manipulate prices for profit.

据对冲基金AQR Capital Management首席风控官Aaron Brown测算，约1000人持有全球比特币数量的40%，按照当前价格，相当于平均每人持有约1亿美元比特币。

Aaron Brown, Chief Wind Prosecutor of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, estimates that about 1,000 people hold 40 per cent of the global number of bitcoins, equivalent to an average of about $100 million per person at current prices.

“更重要的是，这1000人基本都是最早的比特币投资者，持仓成本极低，一旦他们认为此前比特币价格逼近2万美元已经超过了他们收益预期，决定利用比特币期货市场逢高沽空锁定巨额收益，其庞大的抛售量能帮助他们容易实现这个沽空获利目标，且不必担心被逼空风险。”Aaron Brown向记者表示。

“More importantly, these 1,000 were basically the first Bitcoin investors, with minimal storage costs, and once they thought that the earlier price of Bitcoin was close to $20,000 had exceeded their revenue expectations, they decided to take advantage of the Bitcoin futures market to lock up huge gains at a time when the huge amount of sales would help them easily achieve this goal of profit and not to worry about being pushed away.” Aaron Brown told journalists.

但是，这并没有“吓退”多数比特币专业投资者。

This, however, did not “retard” most of the Bitcoin professional investors.

21世纪经济报道记者多方了解到，在比特币价格跌破1万美元后，不少IT与金融领域从业者反而抄底比特币，从而助推比特币重回11000美元上方。

In the twenty-first century, economic reporters have learned that, after a $10,000 drop in bitcoin prices, many IT and finance practitioners have taken down the Decitco, thereby contributing to the return of bitcoin to over $11,000.

他们之所以敢于逆势抄底比特币，一方面是看好比特币的避险投资价值与商业运作前景，比如美国政府因内部分歧而被迫“关门”，令比特币价格急涨8%，此外越来越多跨国企业开始探索在更多特定场景运用比特币进行跨境支付清算提高效率，令比特币有了更多应用场景与需求量；另一方面他们原先平均持仓成本较低，即便此时抄底，也有较高的“安全垫”对抗价格剧烈波动，确保本金安全。

They dared to copy Debitcoin in reverse by looking at the value of the risk-free investment and business prospects of Bitcoin, such as the fact that the United States Government was forced to “close” the price of Bitcoin because of its internal differences, which caused a sharp increase of 8 per cent, and that an increasing number of multinational enterprises began to explore greater efficiency in using bitcoin for cross-border payment liquidation in more specific contexts, thereby increasing Bitcoin's application landscape and demand; and their former average warehousing costs were lower, and even at the bottom they had high “security cushions” to counter price volatility and ensure the security of the principal.

上述国内比特币交易平台负责人指出，尽管这些专业投资者普遍看好比特币，但他们的交易策略随着价格剧烈波动悄然发生改变——相比他们以往坚持长期持有价值投资，如今不少投资者开始选择高抛低吸。究其原因，一是越来越多数字加密货币崛起分流了比特币投资价值与稀缺性，限制了其未来涨幅；二是政府从严监管加密数字货币，让他们意识到自己不少投资获利逻辑短期未必能兑现。

According to the head of the domestic Bitcoin trading platform mentioned above, while these professional investors generally view Bitcoins as a currency, their trading strategies change with sharp price fluctuations – today many investors have opted for higher and lower consumption than they have long held a value investment in the past. One reason is that a growing number of digitally encrypted currencies have emerged to divert the value and scarcity of Bitcoins’ investments, limiting their future increases; and the other is that governments have managed to regulate encrypted digital currencies so that they realize that many of their investments will not necessarily be profitable in the short term.

高杠杆投资风险再起

highly leveraged investment risks re-emerge

21世纪经济报道记者多方了解到，不少美日韩大妈在近期比特币价格大起大落期间被迫止损离场，还有一个不得已的苦衷——就是高杠杆投资引发爆仓风险而被强制平仓。

In the twenty-first century, economic reporters have learned that many Japanese and United States mothers have been forced to leave during the recent sharp fall in Bitcoin prices, and that there is a compelling reason that high-leveraging investments have led to the risk of silos being forced down.

“事实上，比特币领域的高杠杆投资再度卷土重来。”前述国内比特币交易平台负责人直言。无论是境外，还是境内，不少比特币交易平台都会提供相应的投资杠杆服务。具体而言，投资者可以将自己持有的比特币作为抵押，从交易平台获取1.5-4倍之间的资金杠杆交易买卖比特币。一旦比特币价格下跌触及止损线，若投资者无法在规定时间追加比特币抵押物或相应资金，交易平台就会自动强制平仓规避风险。

In fact, highly leveraged investment in the bitcoin area has re-emerged.” The head of the country’s Bitcoin trading platform mentioned above.

他给记者算了一笔账，一位2倍投资杠杆的大妈若在15000美元买入比特币，当1月中旬比特币一度跌至9200美元附近时，其投资浮亏名义上达到约80%。但事实上，比特币交易平台很可能在比特币跌至12000美元时，就要求她追缴比特币抵押物或相应资金，否则强制平仓。原因是交易平台只能容忍投资者最多亏损50%，不能拖累配资资金受损失。

But, in fact, when the Bitcoin trading platform is likely to fall to $12,000, she is required to collect the bitcoin collateral or the corresponding funds, otherwise she is forced to level it down. The reason is that the trading platform tolerates a loss of up to 50% of the investor’s losses and cannot afford to drag away the matching funds.

“只要比特币价格稍有大幅下跌，交易平台的强制平仓事件就会相应增加。”他直言。这某种程度促使今年以来比特币价格跌幅不断加大，进而引发更多高杠杆投资的“大妈们”止损盘与强制平仓盘涌现。

“As long as bitcoin prices fall slightly, there will be a corresponding increase in the forced stubble of the trading platform.” To be blunt, he said, this has contributed to a certain increase in bitcoins price declines since this year, which has led to more highly leveraged “mothers” of dissipating and forced stubble investments.

但是，随着比特币价格骤降30%，专业投资者抄底兴趣随之升温。只不过，如今他们也汲取教训，不大会轻易使用高杠杆抄底。究其原因，一是他们意识到未来加密数字货币监管趋严，令比特币价格波动幅度持续加大，高杠杆投资反而容易“引火烧身”；二是他们担心近期不少国家金融监管部门采取多项措施“控制”比特币衍生品交易规模，用税收大幅抬高比特币投资成本，导致比特币流动性趋于下降，其投资价值与稀缺性更容易被其他数字加密货币替代，进而导致比特币未来价格上涨空间受限，如此高杠杆投资反而呈现边际收益递减、风险成本大涨的窘境。

However, with the sharp drop of Bitcoin prices by 30%, the interest of professional investors has risen. It is only now that they have learned lessons and are not easy to use high leverage. One reason for this is that they are aware that the future regulation of crypto-digital money has become tighter and that the price volatility of Bitcoin continues to increase, and that high-leveraging investment is easy to “flame”; and the fear that a number of recent national financial regulators have taken measures to “control” the scale of Bitcoin derivatives, raising the cost ofbitcoin investment with taxes, leading to a decline in Bitcoin liquidity, and that its investment value and scarcity are more easily replaced by other digitally encrypted currencies, thereby limiting the price of Bitcoins in the future.

“其实，多数参与比特币投资的金融从业者都亲身经历2008年次贷危机等金融风暴，因此他们心里明白，在比特币未来发展不确定性增加的情况下，高杠杆投资本身就是一大风险。” 前述国内比特币交易平台负责人指出。（编辑：张星）

“In fact, most of the financial operators involved in the Bitcoin investment have experienced financial storms like the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and it is clear to them that high-leveraging investment is in itself a major risk in the face of increased uncertainty about the future development of Bitcoin.” The head of the country’s Bitcoin trading platform pointed out above.