对于只玩现货的币友来说可能看我们合约玩家就是赌狗。但是我并不认同这点，我认为合约本身是个好工具，他让我们的交易变得更加灵活，至少理论上涨跌都可以盈利明显比只能靠涨才能获利所带来的机会要来的更多。而机会多，这点对于交易员来说非常重要。因为人的时间都是有限的，有限的时间里拥有更多的机会，这不就是大家所追求的吗？我们一直留在币圈不愿意走不就是因为这里机会多吗？所以我个人是不抵触合约的。
may be a gambler for a cash-only banker. But I don't agree with that. I think the contract itself is a good tool, and he makes our deal more flexible, at least theoretical ups and downs, obviously more profitable than the opportunity offered by the only way of profiting from it. And there are many opportunities, which are very important for traders. Isn't that what we're looking for because we're all limited in time and limited in time?
当然实际操作上更多的币友是涨跌双亏，各种悲惨故事时有发生。一个原因是本身投资永远是一平二赚七亏。所以注定任何市场上大多数参与者最终都是亏钱的。
One reason is that it's always a flat investment. So it's bound that most participants in any market end up losing money.
另外一个原因就是玩合约的难度系数非常大。所以更加降低了总体赚钱的比例。所以想要玩好合约拥有一套完善的交易系统非常重要，所以对于刚刚入圈的小白来说我是不推荐他们玩合约的，因为这要求对他们太高了。对于小白来说，参与合约是一件既伤钱又伤身的事。
合约本身没什么问题，所以我们主要是要思考怎么玩好他。 The contract itself is fine, so we're thinking about how to play him. 合约其实和现货本身没什么区别，就是加了杠杠，加了杠杠放大的收益的同时也放大了风险，所以合约和现货主要区别就是对风险控制的要求会不同。 控制风险第一步：仓位管理。仓位管理可以说的非常多，这里只说说我自己的仓位管理。 The first step in risk control: position management. Stewardship management is a lot of things to say about my own position management. 首先大的仓我分了三个：第一，生活仓，就是永远留有一部分钱是用来保证基本生活的。这里基本是存个最保险的定期了。这保证了极端情况下另外两个仓爆了，生活不至于返贫，能正常生活，做好这一步，心里就有底，闲钱投资，轻松上路。 First of all, I split up three big warehouses: first, a living room, where there's always a part of the money for basic life. It's basically the safest time. This ensures that two other warehouses explode in extreme circumstances, that they don't go back to poverty, that they can live a normal life, that they can do this, that they have a bottom, that they can invest in money, and that they can go on their way.
第二：生意仓。因为我自己还有其他的生意在经营所以也会留有一定的款项来应对。这部分基本就是以流动现金为主了，比如存点余额宝这种。
Second: Business warehouse. Because I have other businesses on my own, I'll leave some money to deal with. This part is basically based on cash flow, such as stocking balances. 第三：投资仓。投资仓对我来说基本上就是给币圈的了。因为我只炒币，不炒股。
至于这三个仓位比例怎么安排这里就不展开讲了。每个人财务状况，性格等不同所以怎么分配都是不同的。我自己的情况只是给大家一个参考。
and there's no rooming here. Each person's financial position, personality, etc., so it's different. My own situation is just a reference. 然后投资仓又可以再细分小仓。 and then the investment warehouse can be broken down again. 现货仓目前8成左右。合约仓2成。 > spot warehouses are now around 8 > > 2 >/span> 现货仓的话，因为我个人是个多头，坚信还会有波大牛市的。所以大部分情况下都是满仓屯币的。一般不操作，就是有时候做些币种的换仓。比如有些时候多换点btc，有些时候多拿点主流币。总的目标就是账户能兑换的btc越来越多吧。这部分能不能赚钱纯粹是看币圈的未来是好是坏了，也就是为认知买单吧。 合约仓的话，我一般开单总体不会超过5成。理由很简单，因为我要确保即使爆仓了，还能有继续玩一把的机会。所以基本上梭哈是没有了，稳扎稳打，不求速胜，只求每年算算总账能有盈利即可。 , 同时合约仓还分为，趋势仓和短线仓。趋势仓也就是说从建仓完毕一直佛系拿到我认为趋势结束再平仓。趋势单好处是一旦赚钱很容易赚波大的，但是也往往来回做过山车，白忙活一场，而且对于喜欢交易的我来说，缺少点交易的乐趣，所以还需要配置个短线仓，短线仓就是来回波段撸了，不过长期下来盈利还是跑不过趋势仓，所以总体来说还是做趋势更省心，也更可能赚的多。 also split into trend silos and short-line silos. Trend silos mean that after building silos, you get what I think will be the end of the silos. The one-size-fits-all benefits are that once you make money, it's easy to make money, but often come and go back to the mountain car and do it for nothing, and for me who likes to trade, there is a need to have a short silo, which is the back-and-back stubble, but the long-term profit is still too easy, so the overall trend is more economical and more likely to make. 以上就是我个人一个简单的仓位管理，通过这样一个配置，基本上不会有真正意义上的爆仓了。我认为所谓的仓位管理，不能局限于币圈，必须扩大至整个人生的大系统里才能发挥最大的作用。一个好的仓位管理，直接决定了你会有一个好的心态，而一个好的心态，是成功的开始。 当然很多朋友会说，我没那么多钱，就是因为钱少所以才来币圈，不梭哈不可能翻身。这种情况怎么说呢，钱都是慢慢积累起来的，只要能稳，那么慢即是快，心急吃不了热豆腐。 A lot of friends would say, of course, that I don't have that much money, because I don't have that much money, and it's impossible to get over it. In this case, the money accumulates slowly, so as long as it's steady, it's slow and it's too fast to eat hot tofu. 仓位管理是我认为最重要的一点，最终的目的是为了我们能长期活在这个市场上，最终笑到最后。当然具体到开单上，大家还是最关心如何判断市场的涨跌。 行情分析方法太多了，指标也太多。目前为止我认为最有用的，也是最小白，最简单的就是五日线战法。大家可以去复盘下btc走势，基本上如果你什么也不懂严格按照ma5操作，长期坚持下来你不会亏钱。最简单的策略就是：五日线拐头向上开多，不跌破五日线持有，跌破平多开空，不站回五日线不平空。五日线走平清仓不参与交易，不赌方向。就是这么简单无脑，5倍杠杠操作，长期坚持下来，绝对是胜率很高的，而且能吃到大多数的趋势行情。 btcbtc >spanc's=font-size-16'. If you don't understand anything strictly >, ma5 但是往往最简单的，是最难做到的，因为猜顶摸底总是刺激的多，成功了也更有成就感。包括我自己常常是让主观判断占据了主导位置从而造成重大亏损。 五日线战法，不能让人抄到最底部，逃在最顶部，但是同时也能避免抄底，或者卖在半山腰，反正我认为非常实用简单，好不好用，适合不适合自己大家可以去试试。 The Five Days Law does not allow people to get to the bottom and escape at the top, but it also avoids the bottom, or sells it on the half of the mountain. I think it's very practical and simple. 下面两张是19年到现在的btc走势图。白色线为日线ma5 基本上均线结合k线，然后结合macd ?boll ?kdj ok合约大数据，市场情绪等指标作为一个辅助验证对于大的方向判断的准确率还是能够保持较高的。 至于短线方向，对盘面强弱的感知能力会要求比较高，也就是通常说的盘感，这主要得靠长期看盘，才能锻炼出来了。 is short-line direction, requiring a higher degree of awareness of the size of the plate, which is what is usually known as the sense of the disk, which depends mainly on long-term viewing. 但是对于玩好合约来说预测涨跌对错还不是最重要的。很多玩家胜率其实蛮高的，但都是辛辛苦苦几十年，一单回到解放前，所以这里就引出止损的问题。 关于止损，对很多人来说是很难的，我也是从韭菜一路走过来，大家的所有心态我都经历过，并且很多问题还在继续经历，首先止损是必须要有的，开单后能赚多少这个是我们控制不了的，但是亏多少止损，这个我们是能控制的。老话说的好，留的青山在不怕没柴烧，只要本金在，就有希望。因为一次判断失误就全部亏光是最可惜的。虽然止损一次本金少一次但是我们就多了一次对的机会，坚持止损就是给自己创造机会，这样最后回本甚至赚钱的可能性就大了。如果一直是盈利的单子拿不住，亏损的单子死扛，那么最后就会变成赚钱只是个过程，亏光才是结果。 about damage, it's hard for many people, and I've come all the way from the pickles, and I've been through it, and I've been through it, and I've been going through it, first of all, there's a need to stop it, and we can't control it, but we can't control it. It's a lot of damage. It's a good thing to say, if you leave a mountain with no fuel, as long as the money is there, it's a lot of hope. It's a shame to lose all of it at once, but we have one more chance to do it, so it's a great chance to make it and even make it back. If you can't keep it, then it's just a process, and it's a loss. 根据我自己的经验，很多时候我们并不是不愿意止损，很多时候我们都是挂了止损了，而当行情真正来临的时候，临时因为各种复杂的情绪而临时撤单了，然后错过了最佳的止损位，后面深套最终变成死扛，当然也会有几次没止损后面扛回来了，所以因为有几次成功的经验所以侥幸心理会一直存在，最后就导致止损这件事始终变成了不能纪律化。 In my own experience, many times we don't want to stop damage, many times we just hang up damage, and when it really comes, a temporary withdrawal is made because of a variety of complex emotions, and then we miss the best stopovers, and then, of course, there are a few times when we're going back, so there's always a chance that we've had a few successful experiences, and eventually the stoppage becomes undisciplined. 
对于这一点，解决的办法只有一个，那就是开单前就想好止损位，然后再动手，开好后立马挂上。然后不要被几次错误的止损打击信心，长期坚持下去，机械执行就行，拉长周期来看绝对会比不止损会好的，这些我都已经真金白银实践过了，亏钱是进步的唯一方法，站在亏友的肩膀上你会进步的更快，亏的更少。
There's only one way to solve this: to stop the damage before the bill is opened, then to do it, and then to hang up. And not to be hit by a couple of mistakes, long-term maintenance, mechanical execution.
前期可能还是会有几次会违反纪律，我个人的方法是，每违反一次，写500字以上的检查，详细的分析当时自己的所思所想，多写几次你会发现每次都差不多，反复几次慢慢的就改掉了。
may still be in violation of discipline a few times in the preceding period. My personal approach is, for each violation, to write "font-size-16" more than 500 当然止损这个问题如果展开还有很多可以讲的，时间和篇幅的问题这里只能简单的一笔带过了，下次有机会再和大家深入交流。 if there's much more to talk about, the question of time and space will be a simple one here, and there will be a chance to talk to you in depth next time. 总结下关于合约，我认为对大多数人来说最重要的是仓位管理，一个好的仓位管理能给我们带来一个好的心态，好的心态是成功的一半。 , concluding on contracts, I think most important for most people is position management, a good position management can bring us a good mindset, a good mindset half the success. 其次是严格执行止损计划，以最小的亏损去搏一下可能的高收益，保护好本金，机会多的事，抓住一波大的就有可能翻身。 最后非常重要的一点是，当某段时间赚到一波大的利润以后，一定记得及时提现。尤其是做一个方向的死多或者死空。因为投资市场往往是乐极生悲，危险总是在不经意中悄然而至，只有提现才是控制回撤的最好方法。 The last thing that's important is that when a wave of profits is made at some point, it must be realized in time. Especially when it's more or less dead or dead in one direction. Because the investment market is often very sad, the danger is always unwitting, and only now is the best way to control a retreat. 交易亦如人生，交易水平的提高，亦是一场心性的修炼，修炼之路，没有终点，多思多想，多复盘，才能大有裨益，交易之路，有你，有我，愿好运与我们常在。
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