胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只币圈2023到2024唯一的机会一定是4年一次的减半行情，根据减半的顺序合理布局相关币种即可
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next to DASH, LTC, BCH, BSV, BTC, ETC, ZEC, ten ways of buying a warehouse low and earning a currency ring
, mining free of charge,
胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只—应广大币圈朋友的要求，为了给各位新手入门的朋友一个交流的平台，也为了扼制那些在币圈收费割韭菜或者卖教程的行为，特建了一个币圈交流群，方便大家没事学习、交流，免费入群，纯粹技术交流。想进群的加管理员微信:【见文章底部联系栏】，十年币圈经验，一线资源、独家情报、想了解币圈赚钱方法，加我微信【见文章底部联系栏】
胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只
作为一个币圈小白，你炒币是怎么把握买卖点的？
how do you get the point of sale as a ring of coins?"
2023年币圈是否会牛回?
Will the 2023 coin ring be back?
写作时间：2023年2月11日
Writing time: 11 February 2023
首先，明确结论：近期的一波上涨，虽然涨幅较大，走势很强，但绝不是牛回来，它只是熊市中若干个反弹的一个。2019年中的那波反弹，大饼从低点到高点翻了300%，接着又下跌50%
…… 熊市并不会平静如镜。
First of all, it is clear that a recent wave of upswings, though larger and strong, is by no means the return of cattle, but it is just one of several rebounds in Bear City. In mid-2019, the Big Bread went from low point to high point by 300%, and then fell by 50%... Bear City is not going to be calm.
一、影响币圈的因素
I. Factors affecting the currency circle
现在的币圈市值已经比前两轮的牛市大了不止100倍，即使从2021年最高位3万亿美元，回撤60%，目前仍有1万亿美元，在这么大的体量下，需要大量传统资金流入，因此传统金融资金面状况，将左右币圈的走势，币圈不再独立于金融环境，而是高度受其影响，例如美国加息，缩表(收水)，SPX指数(标普500)等，看看图1，是最近一年SPX与BTC的走势，关联度极高!最近连分时图的走势都几乎同步。你大概不会认为是币圈影响着美股吧:-)
Now that the market value of the currency ring is more than 100 times larger than that of the previous two rounds of the bull market, and even after a recovery of 60 per cent from its peak of $3 trillion in 2021, there are still $1 trillion, and given the large volume of traditional capital inflows required, the traditional financial situation has led to a move away from the right and left, and the currency circle is no longer independent from the financial environment, but is highly influenced by it, such as the interest hike in the United States, the shrinkage (water collection), the SPX index (approach 500) and so on. Look at figure 1, the trend of the latest year between SPX and BTC, which is extremely high.
图1：SPX与BTC的走势关联度
Figure 1: Trends associated with SPX and BTC
虽然在美股三个指数中，与币圈关联度更高的是纳指，但我觉得SPX在传统金融界有更多专业人士讨论，因此我建议参考SPX便于比较。币圈可以看作是一只高风险的科技股，有着更高的波动性。例如，如果要看大饼中长线的走势，研究它的K线是毫无意义的，倒不如研究SPX的K线，它的体量比大饼大太多了，BTC随SPX波动。
Although in the three indexes of the United States, the link to the currency circle is much greater, I think SPX has more professional discussion in the traditional financial world, so I suggest referring to SPX for comparison. The currency circle can be seen as a high-risk technology unit with higher volatility. For example, if looking at its Kline is meaningless, rather than studying the Kline of SPX, it is much larger than the size of the cake, and the BTC is moving along with SPX.
在图1里我们看到，2022年6月中的那次反弹，和今年1月初开始的反弹，都与SPX高度相关。但也有例外，像2022年11月初，BTC与SPX走势相反，那是因为受FTX事件影响所致，如果没有FTX事件，那次也会是一次反弹。
In figure 1, we see that the rebound in mid-June 2022, and the rebound that began in early January of this year, are highly relevant to SPX. But there are exceptions, like early November 2022, when BTC and SPX moved in the opposite direction, because of the influence of FTX, which would have been a rebound had it not been for FTX.
总体而言，你只要留心观察一下，就会发觉影响币圈走势的因素很多，大的主要有以下三个：金融环境、币圈事件、以及 币圈庄家。币圈事件主要是各种暴雷 或
名人带货 等突发性的，庄家主要是指鲸鱼群体或部分机构炒家。三者中，影响权重优先级排序是：币圈事件 > 融 >
庄家，意思是，如果币圈内发生了特别事件，则币圈会短暂脱离SPX而独立波动，当事件消化后，又会重新与SPX接轨。当SPX走势沉闷、币圈事件又较少时，庄家可能出来兴风作浪，或在个别小币上作妖。
In general, if you look carefully, you will find a number of factors influencing the growth of the currency circle, mainly three: the financial environment, currency-ring events, and currency-ringers. Currency-circumstance events are mostly sudden-onset, such as thunderstorms or celebrity-carrying events, which refer mainly to whale groups or parts of institutions. In three cases, the priority ranking of influence weights is as follows: currency-circumstance & gt; melting & gt; and estates, which means that if a special incident occurs within the currency circle, the currency-circumstances will move away from SPX for a short period of time, and, when the event melts, they will be reconnected with SPX. When SPX is in a state of disarray and currency-circumstance is less frequent, the bankers may come out, or act as a demon in a small currency.
币圈事件出现的频率并不高，年中有5、6件就了不起了，例如2021年，马斯克带货，特斯拉购入比特币，517中国禁令，2022年的Luna爆雷，FTX爆雷等，都是造成币圈大幅波动的大事。另外，我们也可以换个角度看币圈的因素，那就是：
The frequency of currency-circumstance events is not high. Five or six of them are remarkable in the year. For example, in 2021, Mask brought goods, Tesla bought bitcoin, 517 China bans, and in 2022, Luna, FTX, etc., were major fluctuations in currency circles.
长线趋势：看金融环境
Long-line trends: looking at the financial environment
中线走势：看币圈事件
Midline movement: look at the currency circle incident
短线走势：看庄家
Short-line movement: look at the dealer
二、为什么2023年和2024年都不可能是牛市
Why can't it be a cow market in 2023 and 2024?
这个属于中长线走势预测范畴，要看币圈是否牛回，就得看美股是否牛回?目前看大概率不是!
This falls within the range of medium- and long-line projections, depending on whether the ring is back or not, and whether the dollar is back or not.
第一、加息还没有加完，最近的透露口风有可能加到6%，或者在5%维持很长的时间。美国1月份就业人口超预期，失业率创新低，给了美联储更坚决地、毫不犹豫地，加息到底，鹰到底，这对投资市场非常不利。对于美国利率的所谓缓和，其实要分三步走：1、减少加息力度;2、停止加息;3、开始减息;我们现在才踏入第一步而已，SPX最近的大反弹，已经把预期(第三步)拉满，要继续上涨，需要有新的预期。今年下半年，美国大概率要步入衰退，可能是轻微或中度衰退，从最近强劲的经济数据表现来看，严重衰退的可能性较小。有这个衰退的预期在，SPX不会好到哪里。
The so-called easing of interest rates in the US is in fact three steps: 1; reduction of interest increases; 2; cessation of interest hikes; 3; start of interest cuts; and we are now on the first step, the recent SPX rebound, which has shrunk expectations and needs new expectations to continue to rise. In the second half of this year, the US is likely to be on the verge of a recession, possibly a slight or moderate recession, with a relatively low probability of a serious recession in terms of recent robust economic data.
第二、美联储的缩表(收水)才刚开始不久，每月950亿美元的收水规模，还有两年半时间，预计到2025年，总共回收3-4万亿的流动性。这是2022年初FED就公开过的计划，现在一直在按计划执行，没有停止过。请问，在流动性不断收紧的情况下，风险资产(币圈)如何能大涨?币圈人常说，买加密货币的信仰来自于法币信不过，经常无限印钞，放水贬值，现在好了，美联储正在收水回收流动性，不再滥发货币了，那你们是开心还是不开心?法币更值钱了，加密货币的价值自然要跌了，怎么看都牛不起来。
Second, the Fed’s schedule (water collection) has only just begun, with $95 billion a month, and two and a half years before it is projected to recover a total of $3-4 trillion in liquidity by 2025. This is a plan announced by FED in early 2022, which has been implemented as planned and has not stopped. Ask, how venture assets (the currency ring) will rise in the face of increasing liquidity.
图2：美联储负债表从2008年到2020年总共放水3万亿，从2020年疫情后两年总共放水5万亿
Figure 2: Federal Reserve liability table released a total of $3 trillion between 2008 and 2020 and $5 trillion in the two years following the 2020 epidemic
一切都是钱在推动。疫情前，币圈总市值在2000亿上下，疫情后美国总共放水5万亿，把币圈市值最高推到3万亿，现在仍有1万亿，已经跑掉的资金短期内不会再回来，除非下一个放水周期开启。
It's all about money. Before the epidemic, the total market value of the currency ring was 200 billion, the US released $5 trillion after the epidemic, pushing the market value of the currency ring up to $3 trillion, and there are still $1 trillion left, and the money that has run out will not come back in the short term unless the next water release cycle begins.
其实收水对资产价格的影响，比加息要严重得多。美联储的收水计划，比加息晚开始，且持续时间长，但优点是可预测性更强，不像利率要根据经济数据动态调整。玩长线的伙伴务必关注负债表，玩中短线的要关注利率走向。
The Fed’s water collection program starts late and lasts longer than the interest increase, but the advantage is that it is more predictable than the interest rate is adjusted to the dynamics of economic data. It is important for long-line partners to focus on debt tables and short-liners on interest rate trends.
第三、2022年的关键字是“通胀”，2023年的关键字是 “衰退”。
通胀导致加息，加息导致经济活动降温，美股下跌，最终币圈下跌。同样，衰退会导致上市公司盈利下跌，导致美股下跌。通胀可能告一段落，但衰退还没来，现在才年初，它会不来吗?不会!除非有奇迹。经济衰退周期结束，底部才会出来。在衰退过程中，几乎大部分风险资产都会急跌。很不幸，加密货币还不是避险资产属性，而是妥妥的风险资产，并且是高风险资产，尤其在LUNA和FTX爆雷之后，更强化了机构资金的这种看法。
The key word for the third, 2022, was “inflation”, and the key word for 2023 was “recession.” Inflation led to interest hikes, cooling economic activity, falling United States stock, and eventually falling currency circles. Similarly, the recession led to a fall in profits for listed companies, leading to a fall in United States stock.
三、什么时候能抄底?
When are we going to get a copy?
这是最感兴趣的话题!要讨论抄底，意味着要猜底。熊市不言底，意思就是底难猜。反正猜中没奖，猜错打脸，我就不公开给出具体点位了，留一个方法供你参考，还是回归到SPX的历史规律：
This is the most interesting topic. The discussion is about the bottom, which means the bottom, and the bottom, which means the bottom, which is hard to guess. I'm not going to give you a specific spot in public, leaving you a way to look at it, or going back to the history of SPX:
图3：美股历史上几次主要的熊市与利率的关系
Figure 3: Relationship of major bear markets to interest rates on several occasions in the history of the United States
从图3可以看出，历史上几次美股大跌，都是减息的过程中发生。你可能会疑惑：为何不断降息，股市不涨反而跟着往下呢?那是因为利率永远是滞后的指标，因为经济衰退，股票收益率下降，股价下跌，之后才激发降息来对冲。如果是长线现货囤币者，现在并不是买入的好时机，更不是抄底的时机，等利息降得差不多了，再分批买入也不迟。
As can be seen from figure 3, several times in the history of United States shares have fallen in the course of interest cuts. You may wonder why interest rates continue to fall, and the stock market does not rise and goes down. That is because interest rates are always lagging because of the recession, stock yields fall, and stock prices fall before they trigger interest cuts.
所以说，通胀的拐点不是牛的起点，减息的拐点也不是牛的起点，只有利息降到最低，才可能是牛脚趾!
So the point of inflation is not the starting point for the cow, the point of interest reduction is not the starting point for the cow, but only if interest is kept to a minimum, it can be the toe of the cow!
四、新时代来临
IV. The advent of a new era
人们常抱怨各国央行无节制印钞，导致法币滥发、贬值，现在好了，过去低息，资金面宽松的时代一去不返了，我们将要迎接一个全新的金融时代：
People often complain that central banks are producing banknotes in an uncontrolled fashion, causing French currency to depreciate and depreciate. Now that the past is good, the times of low interest and financial easing are over, and we are about to usher in a new financial era:
1、不要指望通胀会轻易压下来，历史上通胀一旦超过5%，就变得很顽固，尤其像租金和人工这两种堕性通胀，很难降下来，只有衰退才能平息。这也是为何一定要把利率加高，高到衰退在所不惜的原因。美联储2%的通胀目标不会轻易达到，至少在今年内不会看到，这就意味着降息空间不大。
1. Don’t expect inflation to cool down easily, and inflation, once it has exceeded 5%, has historically become stubborn, especially when it is difficult to come down, such as rent and labour, and only a recession can calm down. That is why interest rates must be raised to the point where the recession is too high. The Fed’s 2% inflation target will not be met easily, at least not this year, which means that there is little room for interest reduction.
图4：美联储主席认为今年不会降息，没有可能和大概率等字眼
Figure 4: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve believes that there will be no reduction in interest rates this year.
2、不要指望再有长时间的低息环境，过去十几年的低息是由于08年金融风暴和20年的新冠疫情导致，除非未来还有大雷，否则零息应该是见不到了。美联储明年降息也会很缓慢进行，生怕通胀反弹，而且也不会像以前那样降到零，预计未来1-2%就已经是很低的利率水平。
2. Don’t expect a long period of low interest rates, which for the last decade or so have been caused by the financial storm of 8 and the new crown epidemic of 20 years, and which will not be seen unless there are still major future thunders. The Fed will also be slow to reduce interest rates next year, fearing a rebound in inflation, and will not drop to zero, as it was before, and it is expected that the next 1-2% will be low interest rate levels.
3、不要指望再有成本低廉的资金，资金不便宜了，这将对风险资产的估值产生重大影响。下次币圈牛市大饼还能破前高吗?文字有限，下回专题分晓。
3. Don’t expect no more low-cost and cheap money, which will have a significant impact on the valuation of risk assets. Will the next coin-coated cow pie still be high? Words are limited, and the next topic will be clear.
那利率什么能见底?目测要到2024年底甚至2025年、2026年才会看到 ……
What about the interest rate? Visibility won't be seen until the end of 2024, even in 2025, 2026...
胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只
币圈知识百科：
SHA-256
SHA-256
SHA-256是比特币等数字货币使用的加密算法。然而，它使用了大量的计算能力和处理时间，迫使矿工组建采矿池以获取收益。
SHA-256 is the encryption algorithm used for digital currencies such as bitcoin. However, it uses a great deal of computing capacity and processing time, forcing miners to build mining ponds to reap the benefits.
智能合约（SmartContracts）
smart contracts (SmartContracts)
智能合约将可编程语言的业务规则编码到区块上，并由网络的参与者实施。
Smart contracts encode operational rules in programmable languages to blocks and are implemented by network participants.
公有链(Publicblockchain)
公有链是去中心化和无主权化的。任何人都可以在区块链上进行一笔(有效)交易，并且交易的全部记录都是公开可获得的。公有链的典型代表是比特币区块链。
The public chain is decentralized and unsovereignized. Anyone can make a (effective) transaction on the block chain, and all records of the transaction are publicly available.
私有链(Privateblockchain)
Private Chain (Privateblockchain)
一个可信任的操作者管控着区块链的端口，只有经授权的人才能在区块链上查阅或进行交易。这些区块链通常被认为是“中心化”的。私有链或联盟链的典型案例是瑞波Ripple。
A trusted operator controls the port of the block chain, and only an authorized person can access or trade on the block chain. These block chains are usually considered to be “centralized.” The typical case of private or union chains is Ripper Ripple.
联盟链(Consortiumblockchain)
Union Chain (Consortiumlockchain)
联盟链介于公有链与私有链之间，联盟区块链是指其共识过程受到预选节点控制的区块链;比如，公众可以查阅和交易，但不能验证交易，或不能发布智能合约，需获得联盟许可。这些区块链通常被认为是“部分去中心化”的。
Union chains are between public and private chains, and union blocks are those in which consensus processes are controlled by pre-selected nodes; for example, the public can access and trade, but cannot verify the transaction or issue an intelligent contract, requiring a union licence. These blocks are usually considered to be “partially decentralized”.
主链
main chain
源于“主网”(mainnet，相对于测试网testnet)，即正式上线的、独立的区块链网络。目前很多的新币在私募或者ICO完成后都是先在以太坊上发行一个资产代币(Token)给投资者，然后直接在交易所上线Token先炒起来再说，并承诺在主网上线后1:1兑换主网币(Coins)。
Many of the new coins are now used to issue an asset token (Token) to investors in Ether after private solicitation or when the ICO is completed, and then to fire Token directly on the exchange and promise to exchange the main Internet line after 1:1:Coins.
关于“胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只”的相关问答：
strong > questions and answers on “/strong Juan predicts that three years later the monetary balance of > > >. > > > questions and answers on . >
BTC跌到多少，你们会屯现货?
How many times did the BTC fall?
现在不用急着入场。
There is no rush to enter now.
《富爸爸穷爸爸》作者罗伯特清崎，发推称将在比特币跌至1100美元时抄底。
The author of Rich Dads and Poor Fathers, Robert Kishizaki, wrote that he was going to write down when Bitcoin fell to $1,100.
清崎在推文提到富爸爸的至理名言，失败者在失败的时候退出，并拿来引伸讨论比特币当前的市场状况。
Qingzaki in his tweets referred to rich dad's wisdom, and the losers withdrew when they failed and used it to stimulate discussion of the current market situation in Bitcoin.
比特币减半倒计时
Half the bitcoin countdown.
如上图所示，比特币减半倒计时，距离下一次减半，还有412天。
As shown in the figure above, the amount of bitcoins is halved to the next half, with 412 days remaining.
现在价格24600，减半后，对价格有利好作用。
The price now stands at 24,600, which, when halved, will have a positive effect on the price.
注意在减半前入场，现在不用急着入场。
Attention is drawn to the fact that it is now time not to rush into the field until it is halved.
知名财经著作《富爸爸穷爸爸》作者罗伯特清崎，发推预测比特币底部价格。
Robert Kishizaki, author of the well-known financial book " Rich Dads and Poor Dads ", projected the bottom price of Bitcoin.
富爸爸曾说失败者在失败时退出，当前比特币输家正在退场，赢家从他们的损失中吸取教训。
Rich Dad once said that the losers had quit when they failed, and that the beatcoin losers were now retreating, and that the winners had learned from their losses.
他说：我正在等待比特币迈向1100美元价位的测试，如果它恢复了，我会买更多。
He said, ‘I am waiting for a test of Bitcoin’s progress towards the price of $1,100, and if it is restored, I will buy more.’
如果没有，我将等待失败者投降退出，然后购买更多。
If not, I will wait for the loser to surrender and then buy more.
— — — — — — — — — — — — — —
你觉得币圈下一次牛市是多久?
How long do you think it's gonna be?
2020年5月产量减半，2021年牛市
Halve production in May 2020 and cattle in 2021
2024年5月产量减半，2025年牛市
Halve production in May 2024 and cattle in 2025
这一波的底一定低于1w美金
The bottom of this wave must be less than $1w.
下一次的牛市顶点一定超过15w美金
The next peak in the bull market must be more than $15w.
eth的增值倍率会超过btc
Eth's value-added is going to be greater than btc.
告诉你们也没用，能年底1w以下抄底拿四年不动不碰杠杆的，没有，这是我拿整个朋友圈测试的结论
I'm telling you, it's not gonna work. It's not gonna work for four years at the end of the year, it's not. It's my whole circle of friends test.
阻止你赚钱的从来不是市场，而是自己的贪婪，胆小，格局太小，不够坚持，还有时运不济
It's not the market that's stopping you from making money, it's the greed, the timidity, the smallness of the pattern, the lack of persistence, the lack of luck.
历史一直在重复，你需要的是耐心
History has been repeating itself. What you need is patience.
ps.看到很多人收藏了我的这个回答，友情提示：
Ps. See a lot of people collecting this answer, friendship tip:
不要加杠杆!
Don't leverage it!
不要加杠杆!
Don't leverage it!
不要加杠杆!
Don't leverage it!
听不进去的，亏到倾家荡产卖屁股都不值得同情，该!
I can't hear you. I can't feel pity for selling my ass. That's what I'm talking about.
希望能听进去!还要做得到!
I wish I could hear it! I can still do it!
(真·苦口婆心)
"Sincerely the heart of a true woman"
— — — — — — — — — — — — — —
币圈相关资讯：
bank information:
区块链板块“风口”不断 巨头陆续加入币圈
以比特币为首的数字货币再现强势。本周比特币站上9000美元，并一举创出了13个月以来的新高。其他数字货币也显著走强，彭博编纂的Galaxy加密货币指数今年以来已上涨一倍。
This week’s Bitcoin station was set at $9,000, one of which has been high for 13 months. Other digital currencies have also grown significantly, and the Galaxy index, compiled by Bloomberg, has doubled since this year.
近期币圈以及区块链技术的催化剂众多，成为数字货币强势的直接推手。在美股市场上，区块链概念股近期异动频频。分析人士表示，区块链概念的交易热度有望传导至A股市场。
In the US stock market, the block chain concept unit has recently become more heterogeneous. Analysts suggest that the trade heat of the block chain concept is expected to be passed on to the A-share market.
巨头陆续加入币圈
The giants keep coming into the circle.
脸谱18日推出了外界期待已久的数字货币(Libra)项目白皮书，并公布了29家合作伙伴名单。数字货币项目的一般惯例是先发白皮书，之后半年到一年左右时间发行数字货币。白皮书的发布意味着Libra项目已经进入倒计时。业内人士认为，全球主流企业都在陆续通过区块链、数字货币进入互联网和金融科技领域，旨在成为下一阶段数字经济的领先者。
On Facebook 18, a long-awaited White Paper on the Libra project was launched, and a list of 29 partners was published. The general practice of digital money projects is to issue a White Paper first, followed by a six-month to one-year-old digital currency.
就在18日脸谱公布白皮书后不久，微软表示将加入Hyperledger社区，以开源区块链技术项目。作为一个由Linux基金会领导的协作项目，Hyperledger社区旨在为区块链和分布式分类账技术创建开源标准。参与该项目的公司中包括多家金融、科技行业的巨头。
As a collaborative project led by the Linux Foundation, the Hyperledger community aims to create open source standards for block chains and distributed ledger techniques. Companies involved in the project include a number of financial, technological and technological giants.
另外，加密资产交易平台Bakkt将于7月22日开启交易测试，也可能成为币圈新的催化剂。Bakkt由纽交所母公司洲际交易所(ICE)与多家企业联合创办，如果一切顺利，此举将为机构投资者进入币圈交易市场带来新的标准，更多吸引传统金融资本入场。
In addition, an encrypted asset-trading platform, Bakkt, which will open a trading test on July 22, could also be a new catalyst for the currency circle. Bakkt was created by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of Newton, in association with a number of enterprises, and, if all goes well, it will bring new standards to institutional investors to enter the currency-trading market and attract more traditional financial capital.
胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只
15:09 【合众思壮于河南新设高精度科技子公司 注册资本1亿元】近日，河南海浦思森高精度科技有限公司成立，注册资本1亿元人民币，经营范围包含：导航、测绘、气象及海洋专用仪器制造;生态环境监测及检测仪器仪表制造;集成电路芯片及产品制造;集成电路芯片及产品销售等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由合众思壮100%控股。
15:09 In recent days, Henan Hai Haixison High Precision Technology Co. Ltd. has been established and has a registered capital of 100 million yuan and operates in the following areas: navigation, mapping, meteorology and ocean-specific instrumentation; eco-environmental monitoring and detection instrument instrument instrumentation; integrated circuit chip and product manufacturing; integrated circuit chips and product sales.
以上就是对《胡安预测fil三年后的币价靠谱吗 3年后fil币多少一只》的介绍，想进群或是想了解币圈的可以加微信或是QQ【见文章底部联系栏】，一起探讨交流，让我们一起腰包鼓鼓，一夜暴富！
Jan predicts fil three years later, how many
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