近几个季度，全球多家央行对加密货币的采用及交易的扩散表示了担忧。印度储备银行行长Shaktikanta Das在2022年早些时候曾表示，加密货币没有潜在价值，甚至连“郁金香”都不是（即17世纪荷兰郁金香市场的泡沫）。2022年12月1日印度刚刚启动零售数字货币试点，目的之一就是保护公民免受私人加密货币波动的影响。
In recent quarters, several central banks around the world have expressed concern about the introduction of encrypted currency and the spread of transactions. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Shaktikanta Das, stated earlier in 2022 that encrypted currency had no potential value, and that even “Tulips” were not
然而加密货币公司有许多高调的支持者。据调查，高盛、摩根士丹利、汇丰、富国银行、花旗集团、美国银行、德意志银行、瑞银、澳大利亚联邦银行、曼谷银行和威尔士发展银行等一众全球著名金融机构都在支持一家或多家加密货币公司。
However, encryption money companies have many high-profile supporters. According to the survey, a number of world-renowned financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, rich country banks, Citigroup, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Swift Bank, Federal Bank of Australia, Bank of Bangkok, and Wales Development Bank, are supporting one or more encryption money companies.
2022年11月30日，欧洲央行行长Ulrich Bindseil和分析师Jürgen Schaff发文警告金融行业的参与者要重新审视比特币，称比特币受到投机的推动“很少用于合法交易”，并敦促监管机构不要以创新的名义赋予其合法性。可以预见，比特币在未来将面临更严峻的监管和处罚。
On November 30, 2022, ECB President Ulrich Bindseil and analyst Jürgen Schaff warned participants in the financial industry to revisit Bitcoin, saying that Bitcoin was being pushed by speculation “less than enough for legitimate transactions” and urged regulators not to confer legitimacy on it in the name of innovation. It is foreseeable that Bitcoin will face even more severe regulations and penalties in the future.
正文
比特币的价值在2021年11月达到69，000美元的峰值，接着就在2022年6月中旬跌至17，000美元。此后，价值一直在20，000美元左右波动。
The value of Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 and then fell to $17,000 in mid-June 2022. Since then, the value has fluctuated around $20,000.
对于比特币的支持者来说，这种表面上的稳定标志着比特币在向新高度前进的路上有了喘息的机会。然而，更有可能的是，这是在比特币变得“无足轻重”之前的最后挣扎——在FTX破产、比特币价格远低于1.6万美元之前，这已经是可以预见的。
For the supporters of Bitcoin, this apparent stability represents an opportunity for Bitcoin to breathe on its way to new heights. However, it is more likely that this was the last struggle before Bitcoin became “minus” – which could already have been foreseen before FTX went bankrupt and bitcoin was far below $16,000.
一、比特币很少用于合法交易
比特币的诞生是为了克服现有货币和金融体系的弱点。2008年，化名为中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的人发表了这个概念。从那时起，比特币就被市场宣传为一种“全球去中心化数字货币”。然而，比特币的概念和技术缺陷使其作为一种支付手段受到质疑——真正的比特币交易繁琐、缓慢且昂贵，比特币从未在任何程度上用于合法的现实世界中的交易。
Bitcoin was born to overcome the weaknesses of the existing monetary and financial system. In 2008, the concept was published by a man named Chinabone . Since then, Bitcoin has been promoted by the market as a “global decentralised digital currency”. However, Bitcoin's concept and technical flaws have called it into question as a means of payment —
在2010年代中期，“比特币的价值将不可避免地升至新高”这一期待和判断开始占据主流。但比特币也不适合作为投资。它既不像房地产能产生现金流，也不像股票一样产生股息，不能用于商品生产，也无法像黄金那样提供社会效益。因此，比特币的市场估值完全基于投机。
In the mid-2010s, the expectation and judgment that “the value of Bitcoin will inevitably rise to new heights” began to dominate. But Bitcoin is not suitable for investment either. is neither a cash flow for real estate, nor a dividends for equity, nor for commodity production, nor for social benefits like gold. Thus, Bitcoin’s market valuation is based entirely on speculation.
投机泡沫依赖于新资金的流入。比特币也多次受益于一波又一波的新投资者。在第一波波动中，个别交易所或稳定币供应商等的操纵行为有据可查，但泡沫破灭之后却几乎无任何稳定因素。
Bitcoin also benefits from waves of new investors on several occasions. In the first wave of volatility, manipulations such as individual exchanges or stable currency suppliers are well documented, but there is little stability after the bubble collapse.
2020年底，一些公司开始由公司出资来推广比特币，一些风险投资公司也仍在大举投资。尽管“加密货币的冬天”正在持续，但截至2022年7月中旬，加密货币和区块链行业的风险投资总额已达179亿美元。
By the end of 2020, some companies began to be funded by companies to promote Bitcoin, and some venture capital companies continued to invest heavily. Although the “winter of encrypt currency” was continuing, the total risk investment in the encrypt currency and block chain industry had reached $17.9 billion as of mid-July 2022.
二、监管可能被误解为批准
大型投资者还资助游说人士向议员和监管机构推销自己的主张。仅在美国，加密货币说客的数量就从2018年的115人增至2021年的320人，几乎增加了两倍，这份名单读起来有时就像是美国监管机构的名人录。
Large investors have also funded lobbyists to promote their claims to parliamentarians and regulators. In the US alone, the number of encrypted money lobbyists has almost tripled, from 115 in 2018 to 320 in 2025, a list that sometimes looks like a celebrity for US regulators.
但游说活动需要一个共鸣板才能产生影响。事实上，立法者有时会通过支持比特币所谓的优点，以及提供给人们一种印象——加密资产只是另一种资产类别的监管，为资金的流入提供便利。然而，加密资产的风险在监管机构中是无可争议的。2022年7月，金融稳定委员会（FSB）呼吁对加密资产和市场进行与其构成的风险相称的有效监管和监督——遵循“相同风险，相同监管”的原则。
In fact, legislators sometimes facilitate the flow of funds by supporting the so-called merits of Bitcoin, and by giving the impression that encrypted assets are just another type of asset regulation. However, the risks of encrypted assets are indisputable among regulators. In July 2022, the Financial Stability Board calls for effective regulation and supervision of encrypted assets and markets commensurate with the risks they pose - following the principle of “same risk, same regulation”.
然而，近年来，有关加密资产的立法有时迟迟得不到批准，实施也往往滞后。此外，不同的司法管辖区并没有以相同的速度和雄心前进。尽管欧盟已与加密资产监管市场（MICA）就一套全面的监管方案达成一致，但美国国会和联邦当局尚未能够就连贯的规则达成一致。
In recent years, however, legislation on encrypted assets has sometimes been delayed in approval and implementation has often been delayed. Moreover, different jurisdictions have not moved at the same pace and ambition.
对加密货币的监管目前部分是由误解造成的——必须不惜一切代价给予创新空间的信念顽固地存在着；既然比特币基于一项新技术——分布式账本技术/区块链，它理应具有很高的转化潜力。然而我想说，首先这些技术迄今为止为社会创造的价值有限——无论我们对它的未来期望有多大；其次，使用一项所谓“有前景”的技术，并不能够为该技术本身增添什么附加价值。
The regulation of encrypted money is currently partly due to misunderstandings — the belief that innovative space must be given at all costs — and that, since Bitcoin is based on a new technology — a distributed account technology/block chain, it should have a high potential for transformation. But first, I would like to say that
传统金融业也被诱使让客户更容易接触比特币。这不仅涉及保险公司和银行，也涉及资产管理者和支付服务提供商。金融机构的进入向小投资者表明，比特币的投资是稳健的。
Traditional financial industries have also been induced to make Bitcoin more accessible to customers. Not only to insurance companies and banks, but also to asset managers and payment service providers.
同样值得注意的是，比特币系统是一个前所未有的污染者。首先，它消耗的能源相当于整个经济体的体量——据估计，比特币挖矿每年消耗的电力与奥地利相当；其次，它会产生堆积如山的硬件垃圾。一笔比特币交易消耗的硬件相当于两部智能手机的硬件，整个比特币系统产生的电子垃圾与整个荷兰一样多。这种系统的低效不是“缺陷”，而是其“特点”。当然，保证完全去中心化系统的完整性也是其特点之一。
It is also worth noting that the bitcoin system is an unprecedented polluter. first, it consumes the same amount of energy as the economy as a whole — it is estimated that the annual amount of electricity consumed by bitcoin mining is comparable to that consumed by Austria; and secondly, it produces a mountain of hardware waste. A bitcoin trades the same hardware as two smartphones, and the entire bitcoin system produces as much e-waste as the whole of the Netherlands. The inefficiency of this system is not a “defect”, but rather its “character”. Of course, ensuring the integrity of a completely decentralized system is one of its characteristics.
三、推广比特币会给银行带来声誉风险
由于比特币似乎既不适合作为一种“支付系统”，也不适合作为一种“投资形式”，因此在监管方面不应将其视为这两者将其合法化。同样，金融业应该警惕促进比特币投资的长期损害——尽管他们可以赚取短期利润（即使他们没有参与其中）。一旦比特币投资者遭受进一步损失，对客户关系的负面影响和对整个行业的声誉损害可能是巨大的。
As Bitcoin does not seem suitable either as a “payment system” or as a “investment form”, it should not be legalized in terms of regulation. Similarly, the financial sector should be wary of promoting long-term damage to Bitcoin investment – although they can earn short-term profits .
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