出品 / 区块链真相 作者 / 林默默 编辑 / 贺树龙
这是一场可提前预知的崩盘。
It's a precipitous crash.
“USDT无法兑换USD，即将暴雷”的消息流传3天后，10月15日，USDT遭遇大量恐慌性抛售。其价格一度从6.9元人民币跌落至6元，暴跌13%。同时，BTC迎来小牛，五分钟内上涨5.65%，价格一度冲破7500美元大关。
Three days after the news of “USDT unable to convert to USD, on the verge of thunderstorms” spread, on October 15, the USDT suffered a massive panic sale. The price fell from $6.9 to $6, a 13% drop. At the same time, BTC approached the calf, rising by 5.65% in five minutes, breaking a price of $7,500.
共识土崩瓦解，USDT揭开最后一层遮羞布，Tether公司也早就千疮百孔。操纵币价、审计不透明、与Bitfinex实为一家公司、和Nobe Bank交情颇深、Nobe Bank或破产、Bitfinex缺乏足够的兑付能力......质疑一浪高过一浪。
The consensus collapses, the USDT unmasks the last layer of shame, and Tether’s company is already in a state of disarray. Currency price manipulation, lack of transparency in auditing, close ties with Bitfinex, and Nobe Bank, Nobe Bank or bankruptcy, and Bitfinex’s lack of sufficient capacity to pay... a wave of questioning is too high.
因此，大量恐慌性抛售在所难免，而短暂的高潮过后，币圈又恢复了平静。根据Coinmarketcap显示，BTC价格已经回落6500美元附近，ETH价格已回落210美元附近，USDT价格也已经恢复至0.97美元附近。
As a result, a large number of panic sells are inevitable, and the currency circle has returned to calm after a short climax. According to Coinmarkcap, BTC prices have fallen close to $6,500, ETH prices have fallen close to $210, and USDT prices have recovered close to $0.97.
但这或许是暴风雨来临前的宁静。过去问题重重、信任难再建，眼下57个稳定币正在来的路上，等待USDT或许将是一场巨震。
But this may be the calm before the storm. The problems of the past, the difficulties of building trust, the 57 stable coins on the way, and waiting for the USDT might be a big shock.
USDT暴跌，散户求稳
稳定币王者或将跌下神坛。
The one who stabilizes the currency may fall down the altar.
10月15日午间，USDT价格大跳水。从6.9元人民币跌落至6元，暴跌13%。大量USDT被抛售，稳定币无法扛住风险，投资者选择持有比特币来避险。USDT下跌同时，五分钟内BTC上涨5.65%，其价格冲破7500美元大关，最高涨至7788美元。
In the afternoon of October 15, USDT prices jumped. From 6.9 yuan to 6 yuan, they fell by 13%. Large amounts of USDTs were sold, the stable currency was unable to cover the risk, and investors chose to hold bitcoins to avoid the risk. Meanwhile, the USDT fell, with BTC rising by 5.65% in five minutes, breaking the $7,500 mark, up to $7788.
有人哭诉没能趁机赚到钱。昨日下午1点40分，也就是比特币大涨之前，就有消息人士给出了入场提示：现货BTC6300附近入场，ETH198附近。“错过了这波BTC行情，都怪没听他们的”，有散户告诉区块链Truth（ID:chaintruth），并配出来一个大哭的表情。
Some cried and failed to make money. Yesterday, at 1.40 p.m., before Bitcoin surged, sources gave an entry note: the spot BTC entered near 6300 and ETH 198. “Missing this wave of BTC, it's strange not to listen to them,” and there was a scattered account telling Truth (ID:chaintruth) of the block chain, and it was accompanied by a big cry.
也有人趁着这波小牛尽可能套现。数字货币不安稳，散户们选择“法币为王，落袋为安”。“44300出BTC，1480出ETH”，在一个炒币微信群里，币友们正在寻求最后的安定。
There are also those who take advantage of it as much as possible. The digital currency is unstable, and the swarms choose the words “the French currency is king and the bag is safe.” “44300 out of the BTC, 1480 out of the ETH”, in a monetic micro-strategy where the monetary friends are seeking final stability.
事实上，进入10月以来，USDT的价格一直不景气，在多个平台上对美元的成交价格一路下跌。昨日，USDT在四大平台上折算价格从0.89~0.94美元不等，持有100万USDT价值最多缩水了11%。
Indeed, USDT prices have been depressed since the beginning of October, falling all the way down against the dollar on multiple platforms. Yesterday, USDT converted prices on four platforms ranged from 0.89 to 0.94 dollars, holding up to 11% of the $1 million USDT value.
这样的价格创下去年底以来最低水平。过去，USDT连续下跌的时间最长不过4天，如今，USDT已经创造了连续8天下跌的记录。此外，USDT的价格已连续六周没有出现过“溢价”，一直徘徊在1美元下方。
This price has been at its lowest level since the end of the year. In the past, the USDT has been declining for as long as four consecutive days, and now the USDT has made a record of eight consecutive days.
同时，USDT成交量也在下降。根据CMC统计，USDT每日成交量已经触及了20亿美元低点，七日滚动成交量（本月）已触及23亿美元低点，刷新四个月来最低水平。
At the same time, the USDT turnover is declining. According to CMC, the USDT turnover has reached a low of $2 billion a day, while the seven-day rolling volume (this month) has reached a low of $2.3 billion, refreshing its lowest level in four months.
昔日的稳定币王者辉煌不再，这样的情形或许是注定的结局，USDT背后的发行方Tether公司早就问题重重。
It may be the end of a situation where the once-stable king is no longer brilliant, and the issuer, Tether, behind the USDT, has long been problematic.
疯狂发币，疑似操控币价
2017年4月之后，USDT的发行速度暴增。
After April 2017, the rate of distribution of USDT increased dramatically.
根据Coinmarketcap数据显示，截至2017年4月，USDT仅仅发行了5900万枚代币。截至2018年10月15日，USDT共发行25亿多枚，据今年1月份流传出的名为《The Tether Report》匿名分析报告指出，在2017年3月29日至2018年1月4日，Tether总计发行91次USDT。
According to Coinmarkcap data, as of April 2017, USDT issued only 59 million tokens. As of October 15, 2018, USDT issued more than 2.5 billion copies. According to the anonymous analysis report entitled The Tether Report, circulated in January of this year, Tether issued a total of 91 USDTs between 29 March 2017 and 4 January 2018.
超量增发引起了怀疑。美国德克萨斯大学教授曾发文指出，比特币价格上涨的50%都与Tether被打入交易所有关。论文指出，当比特币价格下跌时，用Tether买入的量通常都会增加，从而令跌势逆转。而在比特币价格上涨时，相反的情况却并未出现。“这意味着Tether被用于在跌势中保护比特币价格”，即Tether被用于支撑甚至操纵加密货币价格。
A professor at the University of Texas in the United States wrote that 50% of the price increase in bitcoin was related to Tether’s entry into the exchange. The paper noted that when bitcoin prices fell, the amount purchased with Tether usually increased, reversing the fall.
同时，《The Tether Report》分析报告得出的结果也证实了这一观点。报告指出，比特币的价格波动与USDT超发高度相关，Tether在9个月内发行91次USDT期间，48.7%的BTC价格大涨均发生在USDT发行之后的2小时内，而这段时间只占到比特币总交易时间的不到3%。
At the same time, this view is confirmed by the findings of the Analysis of The Tether Report, which states that the price volatility of Bitcoins is highly correlated with the USDT excess, and that during nine months when Tether issued 91 USDTs, 48.7 per cent of the BTC price hikes took place within two hours of the release of the USDT, which accounted for less than 3 per cent of the total Bitcoin trading time.
据此，ChaiNext分析师根据自建全节点钱包数据对USDT增发以及BTC、ETH价格进行了相关性分析。
On this basis, ChaiNext analysts performed a relevant analysis of the USDT increases and BTC and ETH prices based on self-built full node wallet data.
伴随着USDT增发，市场会出现剧烈波动，且BTC/ETH价格会出现持续一到两天上涨，随后下跌同时，根据Coinmarketcap的数据，一段时间内，每天都有数亿美元的USDT在几个交易所间换手。以上种种，均从侧面反映出USDT有操纵市场的嫌疑。
At the same time, according to Coinmarketcap, hundreds of millions of dollars of USDTs change hands among several exchanges every day for a period of time. All of these side-by-side reflect the suspicion that USDT is manipulating the market.
账户上真的有那么多钱么
Tether宣称严格遵守1：1的准备金保证，这就意味着每发行1枚USDT代币，其银行帐户都会有1美元的资金保障。
Tether claims strict compliance with the 1:1 reserve guarantee, which means that for every USDT token issued, its bank account will have a $1 guarantee.
在2017年9月15日之前，Tether确实是这么做的。根据Friedman公司出具的审计报告显示，Tether以及Tether相关公司的银行账户共有4.43亿美元以及1590欧元（约1970美元）。根据Coinmarketcap数据，2017年9月15日USDT在市场上流通的发行总数所对应的美元价值共计4.22亿美元。这就意味着Tether账户的资产与USDT发行的数量是吻合的。
Tether did so before 15 September 2017. According to the audit report issued by Friedman, Tether and Tether-related bank accounts amounted to $443 million and Euro1590 (approximately US$ 1970). According to Coinmarkcap data, the total circulation of USDT on the market on 15 September 2017 amounted to US$422 million. This means that the assets of the Tether account correspond to the amount of USDT issued.
随后，Tether公司并没有披露任何审计报告。这引发了投资者诸多质疑。
Subsequently, Tether did not disclose any audit reports. This raised numerous questions from investors.
今年6月20日，扛不住投资者压力的Tether发布了一份《透明报告》，该报告由美国一家名为Freeh Sporkin & Sullivan LLP(FSS)的律师事务所出具。同时，该报告给出了以下几点说明：
On 20 June this year, Tether, unable to withstand investor pressure, released a Transparency Report, which was presented by a law firm called Freeh Sporkin & Sullivan LLP (FSS) in the United States. At the same time, the report states the following:
其一，该律所并未透露Tether公司存放几十亿美元款项的银行。
First, the firm did not disclose the bank where Tether held billions of dollars.
其二，FSS提供的报告中的陈述仅针对2018年6月1日这一天的情况，FSS没有根据该日期之前或之后发生的活动得出任何结论。
Second, the statement in the report provided by the FSS relates only to the date of 1 June 2018, and the FSS did not draw any conclusions on the basis of the activities that took place before or after that date.
其三，FSS没有根据任何可参照的法律以及相关规定针对 Tether 的合法性与合规性得出任何结论。
Third, the FSS did not draw any conclusions as to the legality and compliance of Tether on the basis of any applicable law and related provisions.
其四，FSS并非一家会计事务所，对于报告上述观点没有使用公认的会计准则进行确认和审查。
Fourth, FSS is not an accounting firm and does not use accepted accounting standards to confirm and review reporting of these observations.
这样的说明意味着：
Such a description would mean that:
一，过去3年，Tether是否有充足的准备金尚未可知。
First, it is not known whether Tether has had sufficient reserves over the past three years.
二，上述对于银行账户以及Tether公司资产负债表的确认不能被当成审计结果看待，这些结论也不是经由现行公认的审计标准所得出。
Second, the above confirmation of bank accounts and Tether's balance sheet cannot be regarded as an audit finding, nor are these conclusions derived from existing generally accepted auditing standards.
这样的说明为Tether引来更多质疑，同时更多问题也随之浮出水面。
This description has led to more questions from Tether, while more problems have surfaced as a result.
Tether、Bitfinex、Noble Markets关系复杂
一位名为Medium-Bennett Tomlin的人揭开了迷雾。
A man named Medium-Bennett Tomlin opened the fog.
Tehther公司称四大会计事务所都不愿意为其背书，这也导致他们只能向律师事务所求援。但Tether找到的律师事务所的合伙人却暗藏端倪。
Tehther claims that neither of the four General Assembly firms is willing to endorse it, which means that they can only ask for help from the law firm, but that the associates of the law firm that Tether found are hidden.
Medium-Bennett Tomlin指出律师事务所合伙人尤金·沙利文是Noble Bank的顾问，而这正是Tether的开户行。值得注意的是，Nobel银行不是一个普通的银行，它是一家全储备银行，而全储备银行通常不提供利率。
Medium-Bennett Tomlin points out that the lawyer’s partner, Eugene Sullivan, is noble Bank’s consultant, and that this is Tether’s opening account. It is worth noting that Bank Nobel is not an ordinary bank, it is a full reserve bank, which usually does not provide interest rates.
在白皮书中，Tehther称他们是通过银行账户里的存款利息以及收取用户10%的转账手续费（Bitfinex是他们唯一的用户）赚钱。眼下，存款银行不提供利息，这就意味着，Tether公司之前的盈利模式并不成立。
In the White Paper, Tehther claims that they make money through interest on deposits in bank accounts and by charging 10% of the user’s transfer charge (Bitfinex being their only user). For the moment, the deposit bank does not provide interest, which means that Tether’s previous profit model is not working.
更为蹊跷的一点是，Tether公司的创始人之一布罗克·皮尔斯是Noble Markets的联合创始人，该公司是Noble国际银行的实际控制人，虽然后来 (据他自己说) 已经不在Tether公司担任职位。在布罗克·皮尔斯的个人历史简介中，对于自己与这些公司和银行的复杂关系避而不谈，甚至在今年3月的公开采访中，布罗克·皮尔斯声称，“我根本不在乎钱，我需要钱发个币就行了”。
Even more paradoxically, one of the founders of Tether, Broker Pierce, a co-founder of Noble Markets, was the de facto controller of the International Bank of Noble, although later (as he himself said) he no longer held a position in Tether. In his personal history brief, Broker Pierce avoided talking about his complex relationship with these companies and banks, and even in a public interview in March this year, Brok Pierce claimed that “I don't care about money, I need a coin”.
既是银行，又是稳定币发行方，同时，Tether公司还和Bitfinex交易所关系匪浅。
At the same time, Tether has a strong relationship with the Bitfinex exchange, both as a bank and as a stabilizing currency issuer.
据公开信息显示，2014年9月，Bitfinex高管波特、德瓦西尼在英属维尔京群岛设立了Tether Limited。这也就不难理解，为何USDT一出生就受到了Bitfinex的大力支持。戏剧的是，虽然是同一管理层，但他们对于外界的说法始终是Bitfinex和Tether是两家完全独立的实体。
According to public information, in September 2014, Bitfinex executives Porter and De Wassini established Teth Limited in the British Virgin Islands. It is also easy to understand why USDT was strongly supported by Bitfinex at birth. Theater is that, while they are the same management, they always refer to Bitfinex and Tether as two fully independent entities.
接管银行难以为继
眼下，Tether的情况更糟了。
For now, Tether's condition is worse.
2017年4月，Bitfinex和Tether将最后一家愿意处理Bitfinex交易的银行告上法庭，指控其中断了电汇服务。此后不久，彭博援引知情人士消息称，Noble Bank接管了Bitfinex的银行业务。
In April 2017, Bitfinex and Tether brought the last bank willing to deal with Bitfinex to court, alleging that it had interrupted wire transfer services. Shortly after that, Bloomberg quoted sources that Noble Bank had taken over Bitfinex’s banking operations.
但Noble Bank或许已难自保。
But Noble Bank may have been unable to protect himself.
9月30日，据Modern Consensus报道，消息人士称，Noble Bank已经接触过至少一个USDT持币大户，以求获得现金流，但是该请求被拒绝。
On 30 September, the source reported that Noble Bank had contacted at least one of the USDT holders to obtain cash flows, but the request was denied.
10月2日，彭博援引知情人士消息称，Noble Bank正在寻找买家，出售资产。同时，Noble Bank已经失去了许多客户，包括Bitfinex和Tether，并且不再盈利。
On 2 October, Bloomberg quoted sources that Noble Bank was looking for a buyer to sell its assets. At the same time, Noble Bank had lost many clients, including Bitfinex and Tether, and was no longer profitable.
10月7日，外媒Proof of Reasearch又发文质疑Bitfinex已丧失偿还能力，并警告用户取回资产。
On 7 October, the foreign media Proof of Reasearch sent another letter challenging Bitfinex's inability to repay and warning users to recover the assets.
一系列事情引发投资者猜测。Bitfinex股东赵东坐不住了。10月8日，赵东发微博称：“经Bitfinex同意发布信息：Bitfinex/Tether的CFO Giancarlo刚刚给我展示了他们在Noble银行的USD余额只有66.78美元。”
A series of events triggered speculation among investors. Bitfinex’s shareholder, Zhao Dong-dong, couldn’t sit. On October 8, Zhao Dong-feng, : “Bitfinex has agreed to release information: Bitfinex/Tethe’s CFO Giancarlo has just shown me that they have only $66.78 in USD balances at Bank Noble.”
这个数字让投资者惊掉下巴。当时USDT的市值是27亿美元，倘若只有一家储备银行，这就意味着要么根本没有那么多流通的USDT，要么Bitfinex/Tether已经将钱挪为他用。
This number shocked investors. At the time, USDT had a market value of $2.7 billion, and if there was only one reserve bank, that meant that either there was no more USDT in circulation, or Bitfinex/Tether had already moved the money to another.
当晚，赵东给出了解释：“你们理解错了，Bitfinex的意思是Bitfinex和Tether的资产是安全的，目前并没有资产存在Noble银行 。”他想表达的意思是：所有的美元资产目前都已经安全转移至其他银行。
That evening, Zhao Dong explained: “You misunderstand that Bitfinex means that Bitfinex and Tether's assets are safe and that there are currently no assets in Noble Bank.” He wanted to say that all dollar assets have now been safely transferred to other banks.
但这样的解释或许已经没有用了。
But such an explanation may no longer be useful.
信任坍塌，崩盘在即？
10月12日，国外推特以及国内微信群频传消息，USDT无法兑换USD，即将暴雷。市场行情差，这或许是引发投资者大量抛售USDT的导火索。USDT不稳定，投资者只能购买BTC和ETH对冲风险。
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