全球知名加密货币交易平台Bitfinex近期揭示了比特币（BTC）矿工储备销售的新动向，并分析了主要加密货币区块奖励减半后，美国现货比特币ETF对市场产生的效应。Bitfinex普遍预期领军加密货币——比特币将展现出积极的价格走势。
Bitfinex, a world-famous crypto-currency trading platform, recently revealed new developments in the sale of bitcoin (BTC) miners’ reserves, and analysed the market effects of the United States spot bitcoin ETFs, after reducing by half the main encrypt currency block incentives. Bitfinex is generally expected to show a positive price movement for the encrypt currency – Bitcoin.
据Bitfinex于4月22日发布的周度市场报告显示，在区块奖励减半前夕，比特币矿工加速抛售储备以缓解可能的价格下行压力。报告指出，美国推出现货比特币ETF有效地减轻了这一抛售压力，有利于构建更为稳定的市场环境。
According to a weekly market report released by Bitfinex on 22 April, on the eve of the halving of block incentives, bitcoin miners accelerated the sale of their reserves to ease downward pressure at possible prices. The report states that the introduction of bitcoin ETFs in the United States has effectively eased this dumping pressure and contributed to a more stable market environment.
根据引用的CryptoQuant数据，3月份矿工转移至加密货币交易所的BTC数量显著下滑，相较于2月份减少了70%以上。这表明矿工更倾向于清算手中的资产或用作抵押品去升级他们的采矿设备和基础设施，以此在区块奖励减半前进行战略性的仓位管理。
According to the quoted CryptoQuant data, the number of BTCs transferred by miners to an encrypted currency exchange declined significantly in March, by more than 70 per cent compared to February. This suggests that miners are more inclined to liquidate assets in their hands or use collateral to upgrade their mining equipment and infrastructure as a means of strategic position management until block incentives are halved.
区块奖励减半后的积极轨迹与价格上涨过去的经验预计区块奖励减半会对矿工收入产生影响，然而此次BTC的区块奖励减半，即每个区块奖励由6.25降至3.125 BTC（目前价值约208,000美元），反映出减半后的积极价格走势。Bitfinex指出，自4月20日减半以来，比特币价格明显上升，凸显了自4月17日起市场趋势的转变，此前市场曾经历一段时间的停滞。
Past experience predicts that halving block incentives will have an impact on miners’ income, yet this BTC block incentives are reduced by half, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block (currently worth approximately $208,000), reflecting positive price trends after halving. Bitfinex notes that since halving on 20 April, Bitfinex has seen a marked increase in Bitcoin prices, highlighting a shift in market trends since 17 April, after a period of stagnation.
传统上，区块奖励减半会导致矿工抛售压力增大，引起短期内市场价格波动。然而，Bitfinex强调，历史经验预示接下来价格升值和矿工活动的增长将会抵消初始的市场动荡。
Traditionally, halving block incentives has led to increased pressure on miners to sell, causing market price volatility in the short term. However, Bitfinex stresses that historical experience predicts that subsequent price appreciation and the growth of miners’ activities will offset initial market volatility.
现货比特币ETF助力市场活力报告还强调了美国推出的现货比特币ETF对于缓解区块奖励减半带来的供应冲击所起到的积极作用，为市场注入新的动能。Bitfinex指出，上周这些ETF中录得高达1.92亿美元的资金流动，显著影响了市场情绪和定价动态。即便偶有净流出情况发生，但人们对于这些ETF持续的兴趣，尤其是在供应受限时，彰显出它们推动比特币价格进一步上涨的可能性。
The report also highlights the positive role that the US-in-kind Bitcoin ETF has played in alleviating the supply shock of the block incentives by reducing by half. Bitfinex notes that the financial flows of up to $192 million recorded in these ETFs last week have significantly affected market sentiment and pricing dynamics. Even with occasional net outflows, there is a continuing interest in these ETFs, especially when supply is limited, highlighting their potential to drive further increases in Bitcoin prices.
预期价格上涨趋势延续
Expected price increases to continue
展望未来，Bitfinex预测随着现货比特币ETF的需求持续超过新创造的BTC数量，这一趋势将继续。结合区块奖励减半后每日供应量的减少，一个有利于未来几个月价格持续上涨的环境正在形成。
Looking ahead, Bitfinex projects that this trend will continue as demand for spot bitcoin ETFs continues to outpace the number of newly created BTCs. A favourable environment for sustained price increases in the coming months is emerging in conjunction with a reduction in daily supply after block incentives are halved.
鉴于现货比特币ETF需求远超现有供应，Bitfinex认为这一态势将继续演变并塑造比特币市场的前景。
In view of the fact that the demand for spot bitcoin ETFs far exceeds the available supply, Bitfinex believes that this posture will continue to evolve and shape the future of the Bitcoin market.
（免责声明：以上观点仅为个人观点，不代表任何投资建议。）
(Exemption: This view is a personal one and does not represent any investment proposal.
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