概括
Summary
自6月低点以来，以太坊已大幅推高关键阻力位。虽然以太坊和比特币通常高度相关，但比特币自6月低点以来一直处于阻力位，并且可能会走低。以太币对1,000美元的更高低点形成了非常紧的支撑。这个低点代表了低风险、高回报的摆动交易。比特币需要先克服关键阻力，然后才能向上移动。
Since June’s low point, Etheria has pushed the key resistance significantly. Although Ether and Bitcoin are usually highly correlated, Bitcoin has been in a resistance position since June’s low point, and is likely to walk low.
不断下降
is falling
们已经目睹了比特币价格从2021年的高点跌至6月的低点，一年下跌了73%，但突破并维持在16,000美元以下可能会迎来更深的熊市。
They have seen bitcoin prices fall from a high point in 2021 to a low point in June, falling by 73 per cent a year, but breaking and remaining below $16,000 is likely to usher in deeper bear markets.
弱反转
Weak Reverse
到目前为止，比特币一直保持在6月的低点17,100美元上方。8月14日，它的交易价格为25,185美元，较6月的低点下跌了约47%。但这一强劲走势是否表明底部已形成？不幸的是，我不能说是这种情况，因为从6月低点的整个走势是结构上的修正。此外，如果要保持低点，我们不希望价格跌破该低点的0.764回撤位。该水平为19,100美元，并于9月6日被突破。截至发稿时，比特币在小时图上继续走低。
So far, Bitcoin has remained at a low of $17,100 in June. On August 14, its transaction price was $25,185, down about 47% from the June low. But does this strong move indicate that the bottom has formed? Unfortunately, I cannot say that this is the case, because the overall movement from the June low is a structural correction.
这意味着6月的低点很可能会突破，关键的16,000美元水平处于危险之中。
This means that the June low is likely to break, and the critical $16,000 level is at risk.
以太强度
to be too strong
虽然比特币和以太币通常高度相关，但以太坊(ETH-USD)的表现要好得多。在6月跌至879美元后，它反弹至2026美元，或较低点下跌131%。更重要的是，反弹至2026美元的价格太高，无法成为从以太坊历史高点开始下跌的C浪的第四波。第四波高位应该保持在1780美元以下。最后，从6月低点开始的结构可以称为领先对角线。这一切都意味着6月的低点可能会持续。
Although Bitcoin and Ether are usually highly related, the performance of Etherm is much better. After falling to $879 in June, it rebounded to $2026, or by 131% at a lower point. More importantly, the price of rebounding to $2026 was too high to be the fourth wave of C waves that began to fall from the historical heights of Etheria. The fourth wave should remain below $1780.
这种结构为我们提供了从6月低点1000美元开始的第二波支撑。只要没有突破该水平，长期图表和脱离6月低点的走势都表明10,500美元是有可能的。
This structure provides us with a second wave of support, starting with $1,000 in June. Long-term graphics and movement away from the June low point suggest that $10,500 is possible as long as that level is not exceeded.
以太的泡沫公牛
Foam Bulls
如果你很了解加密空间，你就会知道它可能是部落的。许多加密投资者专注于最喜欢的项目，将多元化留给更成熟的投资者。他们通过使用社交媒体来支持他们最喜欢的项目并抨击其他项目来表达他们的支持。没有什么部落战争比比特币最大化主义者或他们所谓的maxis与EtherMaxis之间的战争更激烈。
Many encryption investors focus on their favorite projects, leaving diversity to more mature investors. They express their support by using social media to support their favorite projects and to criticize other projects.
以太坊在9月15日经历了所谓的“合并”。这是区块链从工作证明(POW)升级到股权证明(POS)。这一变化已被EtherMaxis宣布为使以太坊优于比特币，因为股权共识证明需要更少的能量。合并中启用的其他更改使以太坊的供应更加通缩。
This change was announced by EtherMaxis to make it better than Bitcoin, because the equity consensus proved that less energy was needed. Other changes introduced in the merger made the supply more deflationary.
围绕此次升级的兴奋可能是强劲推高6月低点的原因。但与往常一样，兴奋会导致市场出现泡沫，自合并触发以来，以太币没有推高，迄今已下跌超过20%。Ethermaxi社交媒体预示着它的到来，但它却引发了下跌
The excitement surrounding this upgrade may be the reason for a strong push to the June low. But, as usual, the excitement could lead to a bubble in the market, which has fallen by more than 20% since the merger triggered and which has failed to do so. The social media in Ethermaxi predicted its arrival, but it triggered a fall.
当以太多头兴奋地抬头看时，我们在一周以下的图表上看到了B波顶部形成的潜力。现在烟雾已经散去，我们开始在我们的支撑区域增持，从当前价格到1,000美元不等。
When looking up with too many head excitement, we see the potential created at the top of the B wave on a chart below a week. Now that the smoke has dissipated, we are starting to build up in our support areas, ranging from current prices to $1,000.
正如我过去强调的那样，我们的支持区永远无法保证能够成立。但是，通过耐心等待正确的结构，我们可以进行具有稳定风险回报比的交易。而且我们可以调整我们的仓位，以便打破支撑不会给我们带来什么痛苦。如果我们开始看到市场对支撑区域做出反应，我们可以建立在成功交易的基础上。
But, by waiting patiently for the right structure, we can make a deal with a steady risk return. And we can adjust our positions so that support does not cause us much pain. If we start to see markets react to supporting areas, we can build on successful transactions.
比特币的机会渺茫
Bitcoin's got a slim chance.
比特币可以在没有新低的情况下从这里达到我们10万美元目标的唯一方法是通过截断低点。截断的低点是C浪的第五浪没有突破之前的第三浪的底部。如下图所示。然而，这是一种非常罕见的模式，总是需要市场来证明这一点。
The only way Bitcoin can reach our goal of $100,000 from here without a new low is by cutting the low point. The low point is the bottom of the third wave before the fifth wave of C does not break. The figure below shows. However, this is a very rare pattern, and markets are always needed to prove it.
对于比特币，突破23,000美元将有助于截断。然而，与以太币不同，比特币从未超过第四波的阻力。该阻力位为25,000美元，它总是可以在完整的第五波浪潮中将比特币送回另一次尝试。显然，比特币要摆脱熊市趋势还有很多工作要做。
For Bitcoin, a breakthrough of $23,000 would help to cut off. But, unlike the Ethercopic, Bitcoin never exceeded the fourth wave of resistance. The drag is $25,000, and it can always return Bitcoin to another attempt in the full fifth wave.
结论
Conclusion
所以，这里我们有以太币和比特币分道扬镳的秘诀。以太币非常看涨，而比特币一直无法以持续的方式突破任何关键阻力位。这意味着您分配给摆动交易加密货币的资金比比特币更适合用于以太币。
So here we have the secret of separating the tusks from the bitcoin. The tusks are very high, and bitcoin has never been able to break through any key resistance in a sustained manner. This means that the funds you allocate to swing the encoded currency are more suitable for use in taco than bitcos.
在撰写本文时，以太对更高低点的支撑位略低于当前价格1350美元。另一方面，比特币可能会变成一把热刀，准备突破6月的低点。但一旦跌破16,000美元，它可能会进一步下跌。
At the time of writing, it is slightly less than the current price of $1350 to a much lower point. On the other hand, Bitcoin may turn into a hot knife, preparing to break through the June low. But if it falls by $16,000, it may fall further.
在加密行业你想抓住下一波牛市机会你得有一个优质圈子，大家就能抱团取暖，保持洞察力。如果只是你一个人，四顾茫然，发现一个人都没有，想在这个行业里面坚持下来其实是很难的。
In the encryption industry, you have to have a good circle to catch the next bovine, so people can warm up, keep their eyes open. If you're alone, you're out of your mind, you're out of your mind, and you don't have one, and it's hard to stay in this business.
想抱团取暖，或者需要资讯问题的，欢迎加入我们，关注公众号：币然之路
If you want to warm up, or if you need information, you're welcome to join us.
感谢阅读，我们下期再见！
Thanks for reading. I'll see you next time!
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