文 | 来笑
Come on, Man. Let's laugh.
近期，数字货币USDT遭遇了麻烦。
Recently, the digital currency USDT was in trouble.
USDT是和美金等值兑换的数字货币，因此，它一度成为币与币之间的连接器。
The USDT is a digital currency converted to the dollar equivalent, so it once became a currency-to-currency connector.
就在1月24日，一份匿名报告剑指USDT，称USDT涉嫌滥发，并在暗地里拉升比特币价格。
Just on 24 January, an anonymous report pointed to the USDT, stating that the USDT was suspected of having fired indiscriminately and that it was secretly pulling up the Bitcoin price.
而同时，USDT在韩国市场的价格，已跌破一美元。
Meanwhile, USDT prices in the Korean market have fallen by a dollar.
USDT在币圈好不容易建立起来的威望，却有顷刻倒塌的危险……
USDT's reputation in the currency ring is not easy to build, but it's in danger of being engraved down...
那么，USDT到底是空气，还是数字版美金？
So, is it air, or is it digital dollars?
01?USDT是什么
What's a U.S.D.T.?
USDT是一个特殊时期的产物。
USDT is a product of a special period.
多国政府对数字货币和法币间交换采取严厉措施，法定货币（如美元、人民币）和数字货币的直接兑换的主力被驱赶到场外。场外交易流程繁琐，溢价高。
Multinational governments have taken severe measures to exchange digital currency and French currency, and the main power of direct exchange of legal currency (e.g., the United States dollar, the renminbi) and digital currency has been driven out of the field. The off-site transaction process is cumbersome and the premium is high.
于是，USDT就流行起来。
So, the USDT pops up.
这是一种和美元1:1锚定的数字货币，也被称为数字法币，由Tether公司与2015年开始发行。
This is a digital currency anchored in the dollar 1:1, also known as the digital currency, which was launched by Tether with the start of 2015.
那如何保证这个锚定有效？
So how do we make sure this anchor works?
Tether公司采取了朴素的金本位方式。
Tether has adopted a simple gold standard approach.
他们每发行一个USDT前，都会在银行存入一美元或以上的保证金。
Each time they issue a USDT, they deposit a deposit of a dollar or more in the bank.
很快，USDT就被主流数字货币交易所承认，并开始流通，如此，现在国内的炒币者，很多都是先到场外用人民币买入USDT，之后再择机用USDT去购买其他数字货币。
Soon, the USDT was recognized by the mainstream digital currency exchange and began to circulate, so now many of the domestic money-spillers are buying the USDT in an out-of-the-horizon currency and then opting for another USDT to buy the other digital currency.
USDT俨然成为了“入场”数字货币投机的安全通道,目前发行的市值已达到20亿美元。
USDT has become a safe haven for digital currency speculation “inbound”, with a market value of $2 billion being issued.
另一方面，因为USDT价格稳定，也开始成为市场波动的避风港。
On the other hand, USDT price stability has also begun to be a haven for market volatility.
本着“钱本位”的思想，老练的短期炒币者们在看到危险时，就将数字货币迅速换回USDT保值，等跌到低谷，又用USDT抄底。
In the idea of “money-for-money”, seasoned short-term snobs quickly swap digital currency back to USDT to save value when they see danger, and then drop to the bottom with USDT.
但场外购买USDT，依然会有可观的溢价，比如虽然是和美元等值，但因为购买的人太多，一般要7元以上才能买到一个USDT。
However, off-site purchases of USDT still have significant premiums, such as the equivalent of US$, but because there are too many buyers, it usually takes more than $7 to buy a USDT.
有趣的是，在数字货币价格大跌时，准备进场抄底的人会大量购买USDT，USDT的场外溢价也会水涨船高。
Interestingly, when the price of the digital currency falls, those who are prepared to enter the field will buy a large amount of USDT, and the off-site premium on USDT will rise.
如果USDT价格稳定，Tether公司靠啥挣钱？
If the USDT price is stable, how does Tether earn money?
Tether公司承诺，USDT持有者可以在通过公司认证后和缴纳5%手续费后，换回等额的美元。
Tether promised that the United States dollar equivalent could be replaced by a USDT holder after certification and payment of a 5 per cent fee.
当然，还有一些银行存款利息。
There are also, of course, interest on bank deposits.
5%的手续费、银行存款的利息，但这些在充满暴利的币圈，只是毛毛雨。
5 per cent of charges, interest on bank deposits, but these are windfalls in circles full of windfalls.
USDT仿佛超脱世俗一般无欲无求。
USDT seems to be above the earth and free from want.
02?USDT的秘密
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}The secret of the USDT.
事情可能没有这么简单。
Things may not be that simple.
在圈内，对USDT的质疑从未间断。
Within the circle, the questioning of USDT never breaks down.
甚至还有一个针对Tether公司的独立调查账号，名为“Bitfinex’ed”。
There is even an independent investigation account for Tether called “Bitfinex'ed”.
他最早抛出了质疑，USDT不但可能是一个“空气币”，还可能是一手比特币价格的幕后推手。
He was the first to cast doubt that USDT might not only be an “air currency”, but could also be behind a bitcoin price.
Tether的掌门人，同时也是注册于英属维金群岛的金融技术公司iFinex的CEO，而iFinex是世界三大数字货币交易所之一Bitfinex的母公司。
The head of Tether is also a CEO of iFinex, a British Virgin Islands financial technology company, and iFinex is the parent of Bitfinex, one of the world's three digital currency exchanges.
也就是说，USDT和Bitfinex之间，有牵扯不清的关系，“甚至交易所Bitfinex可能会控制USDT的发行。”业内质疑称。
In other words, there is an unclear relationship between USDT and Bitfinex, “even the exchange Bitfinex may control the distribution of USDT.” Intra-industry challenge.
如此来说，USDT仍然是中心化的数字货币。
In this sense, the USDT remains the central digital currency.
最近，随着数字货币的爆火，USDT的发行量也以惊人的速度扩大。
Recently, with the explosion of digital currency, the distribution of USDT has also expanded at an alarming rate.
2016年11月，USDT的发行量是690万美元。目前，USDT的发行市值为20亿美元。15个月的时间，增长了近290倍。
In November 2016, USDT was issued at $6.9 million. At present, USDT is issued at a market value of $2 billion. In 15 months, it has increased nearly 290 times.
“Tether真的在银行存入20亿美元的保证金了吗？”看到如此暴涨的速度，业内开始出现大量质疑之声。
Tether的官方一直声称，自己肯定存了，但没拿出十足的证据。
Tether's official claims that he did, but did not provide sufficient evidence.
而唯一有点苗头的证据，居然是一个微博。
And the only piece of evidence that's kind of sprung up is a microblog.
1月19日，中国比特币场外交易的大户赵东在微博上晒出照片，证明其“亲眼所见”Tether和Bitfinex的美元账户中有超过30亿美元的存款，“完全破除外界谣言”。
On 19 January, Dodo Cho Dong, who traded outside of Bitcoin, China, posted a photo on Weibo, attesting to the existence of over $3 billion in deposits in the dollar accounts of Tether and Bitfinex, “all excepted rumours”.
同时，赵东还拉上了交易所big.one的老板老猫，增加可信度。
At the same time, Zhao Tung added credibility to the old cat of Big.one, the owner of the exchange.
但是这样的“辟谣”似乎可信度不足。
But such a “blowing” seems to lack credibility.
首先，赵东自己是Bitfinex的股东，为利益相关方。其次，big.one早前刚刚宣布将上线新的USDT交易对，老猫作为独立“见证人”的公信力也大减。
First, Zhao Dong himself is a shareholder and stakeholder of Bitfinex. Second, Big.one just announced a new USDT deal online, and the old cat's credibility as an independent “witness” has diminished.
另一个有趣的细节是，USDT的发行与比特币的价格息息相关。
Another interesting detail is that the distribution of USDT is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin.
那份匿名调查报告显示，2017年3月29日至2018年1月4日，USDT总共增发了91次。
According to the anonymous investigation report, between 29 March 2017 and 4 January 2018, a total of 91 additional USDTs were issued.
而48.8%的比特币价格暴涨都发生在USDT增发后进入到Bitfinex钱包的两小时内。
The 48.8 per cent surge in bitcoin prices occurred within two hours of the increase in the USDT to Bitfinex wallets.
USDT存在着恶意拉高比特币价格，为某些比特币卖家套利的嫌疑。
USDT is suspected of maliciously arbitrating the price of a bitcoin for some bitcoin sellers.
大家开始质疑，USDT可能自行增发之后，大量购买比特币“囤货”，恶意拉升比特币。
It has begun to be questioned that the USDT may purchase a large amount of bitcoin “store” after it has increased itself and willfully raise bitcoin.
03?市场反应
"03? Market response
当然，仅仅通过一篇匿名报告或者一个所谓的“眼见为实”，我们仍然难以落下USDT是不是骗局的实锤。
Of course, through an anonymous report or a so-called “seeing reality”, we still find it difficult to find out whether the USDT is the real hammer of a fraud.
但是，如此一个世界通过数字法币的定价权，恐怕不能随随便便交到一个公司手中。
, however, such a world's pricing power through digital coins cannot easily be handed over to a company.
现在，法定货币的发行权，一直掌握在各个国家手中。
The right to issue legal currencies has now been in the hands of various countries.
国家可以通过“超发”，让法定货币贬值，从而收集“民脂民膏”。
By “exceeding”, the State can depreciate the legal currency and thus collect the popular gluten.
美元在脱离金本位后，迅速走上了超发的道路，世界经济也不可避免得陷入了通货膨胀带来的经济危机周期中。
The United States dollar, after its graduation from the gold standard, was fast on the road to excesses, and the world economy was inevitably caught in a cycle of economic crisis brought about by inflation.
但是，在中心化的世界中，美元仍然得以作为“国际货币”得到所有人的信任，是因为美国政府这个“担保人”实力最强大，历史上也从来没有“跑路”过。
However, in a centralized world, the United States dollar is still able to gain the confidence of all as an “international currency” because the United States Government, as the “guarantor”, is the most powerful and has never been “run” in history.
太阳底下没有新鲜事。USDT不过是把金本位的货币设计思想搬到了区块链上。
There's nothing new under the sun. USDT just moves the gold-based idea of currency design onto the block chain.
但一个中心化的“数字法币”，如何保证无欲无求，绝不超发？
But how can a central “digital coin” be guaranteed to be free from want and never over-exceed?
人性贪欲使然，我们无法相信一个公司可以清心寡欲、自我约束。
We cannot believe that a company can be self-restrainted and self-restrainted by sexual greed.
如果来一个第三方审计系统，起到监督作用，也许会好些。
It might be better to have a third-party audit system with an oversight role.
然而，Tether一再推迟第三方审计。
However, Tether repeatedly deferred third-party audits.
在宣布和Friedman审计所合作8个月后突然取消，进一步破坏了Tether的形象。Tether对于取消给出的解释非常含糊其辞，只是提到了“审计过于麻烦”、“受到美国银行业的压力”等似乎有些无厘头的解释。
The sudden cancellation, eight months after the announcement of cooperation with the Friedman audit firm, further tarnished the image of Tether. The explanation given by Tether for the cancellation was very vague, referring only to what appeared to be a somewhat confusing explanation such as “auditing too much” and “pressure from the banking industry in the United States”.
Tether到底在掩藏什么？
What the hell is Tether hiding?
市场对于Tether的信心一直在消退。目前，某场外交易平台上USDT的价格每天都在创造新低。一个月前，USDT的场外交易溢价一度达到20%，而现在仅剩4%左右。
Market confidence in Tether has been declining. Currently, USDT prices on an off-site trading platform are creating new lows every day. A month ago, the off-site trade premium for USDT was 20 per cent, leaving only about 4 per cent.
另外，有不少受访者称，他们用手中USDT换取美元的请求，已超过六个月没有回音。
In addition, a number of interviewees stated that their request to exchange USDT for United States dollars had been pending for more than six months.
由此，我们不禁要问，USDT会消失吗？
So, we can't help but ask, will the USDT disappear?
未来，不同数字货币的跨链互通问题可以被解决，去中心化交易或许会逐步取代中心化交易。
In the future, cross-linkages of different digital currencies can be resolved, and decentralized transactions may gradually replace centralized transactions.
这样的未来，并不会太遥远。
Such a future is not too far away.
那个时候，人们回首发现，USDT不过是一个特殊时期的临时替代方案而已。
At that time, people looked back and found that USDT was just a temporary alternative for a special period.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论