比特币走出独立行情！自去年5月来首次触及3.5万美元

智通财经获悉，加密货币交易员们热切期望首只美国现货比特币ETF正式获得监管批准，因此比特币今日延续了在现货交易所交易基金(ETF)需求预期推动下的涨势，达到自2022年5月以来的最高价格。最新数据显示，全球最大市值加密货币——比特币涨幅一度高达11.5%，至3.5万美元上方。即使近期有着“全球资产定价之锚”称号的10年期美债收益率升破5%，达到2007年以来新高，比特币看涨行情仍然独立于股票、债券等主流风险资产，走出强势上涨的独立行情，而股票等资产近期全线下跌。

The most recent data show that the world's largest market value encoded currency has increased by up to 11.5%, to over $35,000. Even though the recent 10-year United States debt yield with the “global asset-pricing anchor” has fallen by 5%, up to a new high since 2007, Bitcoin still looks independent of mainstream risk assets such as equities, bonds, etc.

截至发稿，比特币回吐一部分涨幅，目前的交易价格为34,031美元，但是今年迄今比特币的反弹幅度已达到惊人的108%。

By the time of the release, bitcoin had increased in part, with a current transaction price of $34,031, but so far this year, Bitcoin has rebounded by an alarming 108 per cent.

有知情人士爆料称，在未来几周，首批美国现货比特币ETF(spot Bitcoin ETF)可能获得监管机构批准，这激起了人们对这一最大市值加密货币的投机热情。更重要的是，全球资产管理巨头贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)和富达投资(Fidelity Investments)都在竞相推出此类产品，在看好加密货币资产的投资者看来，现货ETF将有效提振加密货币价格以及采用范围。

According to sources, in the coming weeks, the first American spot ETF may be approved by regulatory agencies, prompting speculation on this largest market-market encrypted currency. More importantly, the global asset-management giant Black Rock Inc. and the Fuda Investments are competing for such products, and, in the view of investors who look at encrypted monetary assets, the spot ETF will effectively boost the price of encrypted currency and its scope.

周一，美国联邦上诉法院正式裁定，灰度投资(Grayscale Investments LLC)不考虑美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的反对判决，在创建现货比特币ETF的竞标中取得了胜利。

On Monday, the United States Federal Court of Appeal ruled formally that Grayscale Investments LLC had won the bid to create the spot Bitcoin ETF without taking into account the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) objection judgement.

然而，到目前为止，SEC未正式就灰度投资胜诉发表评论，在此之前美国SEC一直拒绝允许ETF直接投资现货比特币，理由是存在潜在市场欺诈和操纵价格等风险。但是近期法院的裁决以及重量级投资机构纷纷提出设立现货基金的申请，引发了人们的猜测，即该机构将放松对加密货币的监管。

To date, however, the SEC has not formally commented on the Greyscale investment success claim, following the US SEC’s refusal to allow ETF direct investment in spot bitcoins on the grounds that there is a risk of potential market fraud and price manipulation. But recent court decisions, as well as heavyweight investment agencies’ applications to set up spot funds, have given rise to speculation that the agency will relax its regulation of encrypted currency.

美国首只现货比特币ETF真的要来了?

来自Bloomberg Intelligence的ETF分析师Eric Balchunas在X平台(前身为推特)上指出，iShares比特币信托已在DTCC上市，代码为“IBTC”。

Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence, stated on platform X (formerly Twitter) that the iSharesbitcoin trust was on the market at DTCC with the code “IBTC”.

全球最大规模的资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)经营着iShares ETF业务，DTCC则是美国存管信托和清算公司，负责美国市场的清算和结算工作，这意味着现货比特币ETF可能已获得，或者即将获得美国证券交易委员会的批准。Balchunas表示，DTCC上市是将加密ETF推向美国市场的“所有过程的一部分”。

Black Rock, the largest asset management company in the world, runs iShares ETF operations, while DTCC, the United States Depositary Trust and Clearing Company, is responsible for clearing and clearing the United States market, meaning that spot bitcoin ETFs may have been obtained, or will soon be approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Balchunas states that the listing of DTCC is part of a “all-process” process to push encrypted ETFs to the United States market.

“但是这并不意味着它在技术上得到了批准，”Balchunas在接受采访时表示。“这不能说是大功告成。但这基本上是在你启动ETF之前检查你需要检查的每一个部分。当我们看到在ETF产品发布前添加了这一代码时，通常ETF发布都是走类似的流程。”

“But that doesn't mean it's technically approved,” Balchunas said in an interview. “It can't be said that it's done. But it's basically checking every part you need to check before you start the ETF. When we see that this code is added before the ETF product is released, usually ETF releases follow a similar process.”

因此，分析师Balchunas推测，贝莱德可能已经从美国证券交易委员会获得了上市ETF的潜在许可，或者“正在做一切准备“。根据贝莱德的申请日期，SEC必须在2024年1月10日之前就批准或拒绝该ETF做出最终决定。

As a result, analyst Balchunas assumes that Belet may have obtained a potential license from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to place the ETF on the market, or “are doing everything possible.” According to Belet’s application date, SEC must take a final decision to approve or reject the ETF before 10 January 2024.

受到现货ETF炒作情绪带来的积极影响，比特币上周初盘中也一度飙升10%。当时，一份有关贝莱德已获SEC批准成立美国首只现货比特币ETF基金的错误报道导致了这一举动。而在错误消息曝光后，比特币反弹热潮迅速降温。

As a result of the positive impact of spot ETF frenzy, Bitcoin also jumped by 10% last week’s first round. At that time, a false report that Belede had been approved by the SEC to establish America’s first active Bitcoin ETF fund led to this move.

周二，全球第二大市值加密货币——以太坊价格一度飙升超6.5%，超过了1800美元。较小规模的加密货币，如BNB、XRP和受欢迎的狗狗币也有所上涨。

Tuesday, the world’s second-largest market-market encrypted currency – which rose sharply by over 6.5% at Taicha prices, to over $1,800. Smaller encrypted currencies, such as BNB, XRP, and popular dog coins, have also risen.

Coinglass统计数据显示，在过去24小时内，价值约3.87亿美元的加密货币交易头寸被清算，其中大部分来自押注价格下跌的那些投机者。

Coinglass statistics show that, over the past 24 hours, some $387 million worth of encrypted currency transactions have been liquidated, mostly from speculators whose bet prices have fallen.

高利率以及SEC监管，仍然压制着加密货币市场

high interest rates and SEC regulation continue to stifle the crypto-currency market

美国证券交易委员会(SEC)已经允许ETF产品持有比特币和以太坊期货资产。但在去年市场崩盘和FTX交易所破产等负面事件之后，该机构总体上加强了对加密货币的打击力度。

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has allowed ETF products to hold Bitcoin and Ether’s futures assets. But, following negative events such as the collapse of the market last year and the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, the agency has generally stepped up its fight against encrypted currency.

Bloomberg Intelligence分析师Elliott Stein以及James Seyffart表示：“比特币现货ETF的批准似乎不可避免，一批基金可能会获得批准，尽管时间仍不确定。”

According to Bloomberg Intelgence analyst Elliott Stein and James Seyffart, “the approval of the spot ETF in Bitcoin appears inevitable and a group of funds may be approved, although the timing remains uncertain”.

加密货币行业正在努力应对全球借贷成本长期上升的前景，同时SEC也清楚地提醒人们，政府正在对Sam Bankman Fried创立的FTX交易所帝国崩溃进行的审判给加密货行业带来了风险，全球监管机构可能进一步出台更严格条例监管加密货币。

While the crypto-currency sector is trying to cope with the prospect of a long-term rise in global borrowing costs, the SEC is also a clear reminder that the ongoing trials of the empire of the FTX exchange created by Sam Bankman Fried pose risks to the crypto-goods industry and that global regulators may further introduce stricter regulations to regulate encrypted currencies.

因此，受利率上升打击风险资产需求的影响，比特币价格仍远远低于2021年新冠疫情时期近6.9万美元的峰值。当美联储将利率长期维持在高位时，对比特币(BTC)等加密货币交易杠杆的兴趣往往暴露了市场的内在风险。在和比特币以及以太坊等加密货币相关的案例中，由于利率上升，许多加密货币持有者被迫进行清算，这样他们才能负担得起债务以及高利率和高通胀下的高昂生活成本。

As a result, the price of Bitcoin is still well below the peak of nearly $690 million during the 2021 new crown epidemic, as interest rate hikes hit risk. When the Fed keeps interest rates high for long periods, the interest interest of encrypted currency transactions like the Bitcoin (BTC) often exposes market risks.

一些分析师甚至预计，由于美联储将长时间维持高利率，比特币的潜在上行空间将受到严重抑制，并且可能在高利率期间探索2万美元低点。Peruvian Bull的分析数据表明，在美联储降低基准利率之前，比特币等加密货币可能会出现一波又一波抛售压力。

Some analysts even predict that, as the Fed will maintain high interest rates for long periods of time, the potential upfront space for Bitcoin will be severely curtailed, and that a 20,000-dollar low may be explored during high interest rates. Peruvian Bull’s analysis shows that encrypted currencies, such as Bitcoin, may be under a wave of selling pressure before the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rates.

但是，加密货币最近与股票(尤其是美股科技股)、债券和黄金等资产的相关性最近有所下降，引发了人们对主流投资者是否已经逐渐退出这些传统投资标的的质疑。

However, the recent decline in the correlation of encrypted currencies to assets such as equities (especially the US share of science and technology), bonds and gold has raised questions as to whether mainstream investors have gradually withdrawn from these traditional investment targets.

“流动性确实比以前好了一些，”加密市场做市商Keyrock亚太业务发展主管Justin d’Anethan表示。“价格趋势现在已经开始恢复，随之而来的是一定数量的流动性——不过，与2020-2021年的狂热时期相比，仍然显得微不足道。”

“Mobility is certainly better than before,” said Justin d’Anethan, head of business development for Asia and the Pacific in the cryptomarket. “Pricing trends have now begun to recover, followed by a certain amount of liquidity — although they remain insignificant compared to the period of fanaticism in 2020-2021.”