2021年，比特币连日连创新高！
In 2021, Bitcoin grew up every day!
刚刚，最新数据显示，比特币突破35000美元，再创历史新高！与此同时，一则关于英国一程序员把7500个比特币当成垃圾扔掉的新闻冲上热搜，记者粗略计算，相当于丢了17亿元。对此，网友心疼：一下子丢了十几个小目标。
Just now, the latest data shows that Bitcoin has passed $35,000, and is now at an all-time high. At the same time, a story about a British programmer throwing 7,500 bitcoins away as garbage is hot and the journalist's rough calculations amount to a loss of $1.7 billion.
比特币突破35000美元创新高！
Bitcoin out of $35,000 worth of innovation!
今年已经暴涨超20%！
has skyrocketed by more than 20% this year!
2021年刚开启不到一周，比特币连创新高！
It opened less than a week in 2021, and Bitcoin was even more innovative!
2021年1月2日，比特币价格站上3万美元。
On 2 January 2021, the Bitcoin price was set at $30,000.
而刚刚，2020年1月6日，比特币价格站上3.5万美元，一度突破35700美元，续刷历史新高。截至记者发稿，比特币价格为35342美元/枚，相当于买一枚比特币需要近23万元人民币。
Just now, on January 6, 2020, the Bitcoin price stood at $35,000, a one-time break of $35,700, continuing its record high. As far as journalists are concerned, the Bitcoin price is $35,342 per piece, equivalent to nearly $230,000 required to buy a bitcoin.
而今年以来，比特币涨幅已经超23%，成为全球最赚钱的资产。
And since this year, Bitcoin has increased by more than 23 per cent, making it the most profitable asset in the world.
如果把时间拉长，在2020年年初在7000多美元的价位买进，如今收益已经超过500%！
If you buy more than $7,000 at the beginning of 2020, the return is now more than 500%!
再拉长，比特币自2009年诞生后，其第一次产生价格是2010年被购买所对应约0.0025美元，比特币诞生以来的价格涨幅已超1400万倍！
Longer, Bitcoin's first generation price since its birth in 2009 was about US$ 0.0025 when it was purchased in 2010, and the price has increased by more than 14 million times since Bitcoin was born!
有程序员把7500个比特币当成垃圾扔掉
A programr threw 7,500 bitcoins out as garbage.
然而，在比特币连创历史新高的同时，有一则消息却迅速冲上微博热搜：程序员把7500个比特币当成垃圾扔掉。
However, at the same time that Bitcoin had reached an all-time high, there was a news rushing into the microblogging: 7,500 bitcoins were thrown out as garbage by programmers.
外媒称，英国一IT工程师不小心将藏有7500枚比特币私钥的硬盘当垃圾扔掉。。而按照比特币目前3.53万美元的价格计算， 目前估算超2.6亿美元，近17亿人民币。
According to the foreign media, an IT engineer in the United Kingdom accidentally threw away a hard disk containing 7,500 bitcoins of private keys as garbage. At the current price of $353 million, Bitcoin is currently estimated to be more than $260 million, close to $1.7 billion.
他表示后悔莫及。区块链分析公司Chainalysis于2020年6月发布报告显示，至少有370万比特币至少有五年没被触及。加密数据公司Glassnode估计，大约有300万个比特币将永远丢失。自2020年10月牛市以来，约70亿美元的比特币已被重新找到。
According to a report released in June 2020 by Chainalysis, at least 3.7 million bitcoins have not been touched for at least five years. The encryption data company Glasnode estimates that about 3 million bitcoins will be lost forever. Since the cattle market in October 2020, about $7 billion bitcoins have been rediscovered.
网友心疼：一下子扔掉十几个小目标
"Strong" is a pain in the ass: throwing away a dozen small targets at once
对此，网友纷纷表示心疼：一下子扔掉十几个小目标。
In response, many netizens expressed their pain: a dozen small targets were thrown away.
比特币为何暴涨？
Why did Bitcoin soar?
中金公司研报分析称，比特币价格从2019年年底的7,200美元上升至27,084美元（截至2020/12/28），涨幅接近3倍，并且成为年初以来涨幅最高的资产类别，甚至超过了FAAMNG科技巨头指数。除了全球流动性宽松带来的影响以外，分析认为，过去一年以PayPal、Robinhood、Grayscale为代表的金融机构在拓宽数字资产渠道上的金融创新，是币价过去一年上涨接近3倍背后的结构性原因。短期币价可能受流动性以及投机资金进出推动，出现较大波动，但是长期来看，传统投资人基础的不断扩大，利好比特币等数字资产价格的稳定上升。
In addition to the impact of the easing of global liquidity, the study found that the financial innovation of financial institutions represented by PayPal, Robinhood, Grayscale over the past year in widening the channels of digital assets was a structural reason behind the nearly three-fold increase in currency prices over the past year. Short-term currency prices could be driven by liquidity and speculative capital inflows, with greater volatility, but, in the long run, the traditional investor base has expanded and the price of digital assets, such as currency, has risen steadily.
图表: 主要资产类别年初以来业绩表现
Chart: Performance of major asset classes since the beginning of the year
资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 注：数据截止2020/12/28
Source: Bloomberg, Research Department, China Gold Company
图表: 2014年1月以来比特币价格及日均交易量
Chart: Bitcoin prices and average daily transactions since January 2014
另外，数字资产监管政策日益明确，中国香港、新加坡新法规有望推动合规交易所快速。过去一年，二十国集团（G20）牵头制定了对以Libra为代表的GSC（全球稳定币）的监管框架，以防范金融风险。中国香港证监会在2019年制定了投资于虚拟资产的持牌资管企业的监管规则，又于2020年12月向OSL发放了第一张加密资产交易所牌照（1号牌（证券交易）和7号牌（提供自动化交易服务））。新加坡制定《支付法案》，为交易所、资产管理公司，OTC等数字资产相关金融服务业在新加坡的发展奠定了基础。
In addition, digital asset regulation policies have become increasingly clear, and new regulations in Hong Kong, China, and Singapore are expected to promote fast-track compliance exchanges. Over the past year, the Group of Twenty (G20) led the development of a regulatory framework for the global GSC, represented by Libra, to guard against financial risk.
有媒体报道称，即使是币圈的圈内人，也毫不讳言比特币的暴涨已是一场大泡沫，但在全球天量流动性的驱动下，比特币成了“刚性泡沫”。不过，和三年前相比，这次有些不同。
According to media reports, even insiders of the currency circle say that the surge in bitcoin is already a big bubble, but driven by global natural liquidity, bitcoin became a “hard bubble.” However, this time, it was somewhat different from three years ago.
在新冠肺炎大流行期间，由于美联储将利率下调至接近零的水平（并且料将在未来几年保持在这一水平），投资者将大量资金投入比特币和其他加密货币，以谋求更高的回报。
During the new coronary pneumonia pandemic, as the Fed moved interest rates down to near zero (and expected to remain at that level in the coming years), investors invested substantial amounts of money in bitcoin and other encrypted currencies in search of higher returns.
与此同时，欧美央行推出极度宽松的货币政策推高了金融市场的通胀预期，而比特币被视为对冲通胀的最佳工具之一，这也是投资者纷纷涌入比特币的原因之一。高盛此前指出，比特币是对冲通胀的工具，可以与黄金共存。
At the same time, the introduction of extremely liberal monetary policies by the European and United States central banks has pushed up inflation expectations in financial markets, and Bitcoin is seen as one of the best tools to hedge inflation, which is one of the reasons for investors’ influx into Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs has previously pointed out that Bitcoin is a tool for inflation and can coexist with gold.
如果说上一波行情的暴涨是由于大量散户抱着赌一把的心态冲进了市场，推动了币价，那么这次的行情很大程度上得益于机构的入局。
If the surge in the previous wave was due to the fact that a large number of dispersed households entered the market with a gambling mind and promoted currency prices, this move was largely facilitated by the entry of institutions.
一般而言，当风险可控时，机构才会加入，而机构的加入提供了充裕的资金，也提高了未来的收益预期。
In general, when risk is manageable, the agency joins, which provides sufficient funding and raises future revenue expectations.
第一财经曾报道，OKExRereplace首席研究员威廉表示，“可能与大家想到的投机或炒作原因不一样，投机和炒作成分确实存在，但非主因。直接原因来自于高净值和机构投资者的入场，自2020年下半年以来，诸如美国保险巨头万通人寿保险公司、商业分析公司MicroStrategy等机构纷纷买入比特币；而在线支付巨头PayPal、新加坡最大的商业银行星展银行也纷纷宣布将推出加密货币支付服务。目前超过69亿美元的比特币由上市公司持有。”
As reported in the first book, William, the chief researcher of OKExReplace, said that “speculation and snobs do exist, but not for the main reason, unlike the thought of speculation or pretenses. Directly due to the entry of high net worth and institutional investors, since the second half of 2020, institutions such as the United States Insurance Giant Living Insurance Corporation, the Business Analysis Company MicroStrategy, have been buying into Bitcoin; and online payments to the giant PayPal, Singapore’s largest commercial bank Star Bank, have announced the introduction of an encrypted currency payment service.
“流动性危机即将来临，”英国交易所Coin Corner首席执行官丹尼·斯科特（Danny Scott）最近表示。他指出，Grayscale Bitcoin Trust （GBTC）持续大量买入比特币，仅在2020第四季度，GBTC就买入了逾11.5万比特币（按当前价格计算约为25亿美元）。再加上对冲基金、共同基金和现在的保险公司等机构买家，交易所里的比特币出现了短缺。这只能通过提高价格来解决。
“The liquidity crisis is imminent,” recently stated Danny Scott, Chief Executive Officer of the British Exchange Coin Corner. He noted that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to buy bitcoins in large quantities, buying over 115,000 bitcoins (about $2.5 billion at current prices) in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone.
Guggenheim Partners首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）去年年底对彭博社（Bloomberg）表示，比特币目前的价格远低于公允价值，考虑到比特币的稀缺性和美联储“疯狂印钱”，这种数字代币最终应该会攀升至每枚比特币40万美元左右。去年11月，Guggenheim申请保留其53亿美元宏观机会基金（Macro Opportunities Fund） 10%的投资权利，该基金只投资于加密货币。他说：“我们的基础研究显示，比特币的价值应该在40万美元左右，”米纳德说。“它是基于稀缺性和相对估值，比如黄金占GDP的百分比。所以你知道，比特币实际上具有黄金的许多属性，同时在交易方面具有不寻常的价值。”
The Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, Scott Minerd, told Bloomberg at the end of last year that Bitcoin was currently far below fair value, given the scarcity of Bitcoin and the Fed’s “crazy printing of money”, which should eventually rise to about $400,000 per bit. Last November, Guggenheim applied to retain 10% of his investment rights in the Macro Opportunities Fund, which invests only in encrypted currency. “Our basic research shows that Bitcoin should be worth around $400,000,” Minnar said. “It is based on scarcity and relative valuation, such as gold as a percentage of GDP.
（来源：中国基金报）
(Source: China Fund)
（编辑：叶映橙）
(ed. Leaf Orange)
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