暴涨！暴跌！比特币还能疯多久？全球监管机构相继警示

　　2月26日，随着美股和全球债券市场大跌，比特币、以太坊等一众数字货币再现逾10%跌幅。截至2月26日12时，比特币价格报47345.12美元，下跌5.73%。

On 26 February, more than 10 per cent of the digital currency of Bitcoin and Taipa fell as the United States and global bond markets plunged. At 1200 hours on 26 February, Bitcoin prices stood at $47,345.12, a decline of 5.73 per cent.

　　再现过山车式波动

repeats mountain car fluctuations

　　2020年下半年以来，比特币价格直线上升，短短6个月上涨逾350%。2021年以来，更是“高歌猛进”。上周末，其市值一度超过1万亿美元，价格更逼近59000美元，再创新高。

Since the second half of 2020, Bitcoin prices have risen in a straight line, rising by more than 350 per cent in just six months. Since 2021, it has been a “crowding boom.” Last weekend, its market value was once more than $1 trillion, with prices getting closer to $59,000 and higher innovation.

　　然而，作为虚拟资产的比特币，仍无法摆脱频繁的“过山车”行情。前所未有的高价是这一轮大跳水的诱因之一。

However, Bitcoin, a virtual asset, is still unable to escape the frequent “climbing” movement. Unprecedentedly high prices are one of the incentives for this big jump.

　　2021年以来，比特币价格累计涨幅达到80%。而跟踪比特币和其他数字货币的彭博Galaxy加密货币指数已上涨超过一倍。

Since 2021, the price of bitcoins has increased cumulatively by 80%, while the Bloomberg Galaxy index, which tracks bitcoins and other digital currencies, has more than doubled.

　　随着比特币等数字货币的一路走高，分析人士认为，主流投资者对比特币的兴趣越来越浓，但应警惕比特币价格的高波动性和脆弱性。

As digital currencies, such as bitcoin, have moved up, analysts argue that mainstream investors are increasingly interested in bitcoin, but should be wary of the high volatility and vulnerability of bitcoin prices.

　　2月21日，特斯拉创始人埃隆·马斯克感叹：“比特币和以太坊的价格似乎确实有点高了。”在其后的24小时中，比特币价格从最高58000美元持续下跌，跌幅最高超过20%。

On 21 February, the founder of Tesla, Ellen Mask, lamented that “the prices of Bitcoin and Ethio did seem to be a bit high.” In the 24 hours that followed, Bitcoin prices continued to fall from a maximum of $58,000 to a maximum of more than 20 per cent.

　　2月22日，美国财政部长耶伦向投资者和公众发出警告，称比特币的合法性和稳定性仍存在问题，且其极强的波动性或会使投资者遭受损失。

On 22 February, United States Treasury Secretary Ellen warned investors and the public that the legitimacy and stability of Bitcoin remained problematic and that it was highly volatile or could cause losses to investors.

　　在2月22日、23日两天时间内，比特币下跌至最低44892美元。在2月23日当天，比特币一度连破50000、49000、48000、47000、46000、45000美元六大关口，市场恐慌情绪急剧蔓延。以太坊、莱特币以及狗狗币等加密资产因此也急剧下跌，市场风声鹤唳。

In two days on 22 and 23 February, Bitcoin fell to a minimum of $44892. On 23 February, Bitcoin broke the six gates of $50,000, 49,000, 48,000, 47,000, 46,000, and 45,000 dollars.

　　在此轮大跌中，比特币家园网数据显示，24小时内，全网有逾49万人爆仓，最大一笔爆仓价值逾2000万美元。有大约46.28亿美元的资金因此化为乌有，不少投资者血本无归。

In the run-up to this round, Bitcoin Homeline data show that, within 24 hours, more than 490,000 people exploded across the network, with the largest explosion worth more than $20 million. Some $4,628 billion of money was destroyed, and many investors lost their lives.

　　受此影响，规模320亿美元的全球最大的比特币基金Grayscale Bitcoin Trust（GBTC） 本周已累计暴跌20%，超过比特币13%的跌幅。GBTC相对于标的资产曾经的大幅溢价消失无踪，周三收盘价格较标的资产低0.7%。

As a result, the 32 billion-dollar world’s largest Bitcoin fund, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has accumulated a sharp fall of 20% this week, exceeding the 13% drop in Bitcoin. The GBTC’s previous large premium on the target asset has disappeared, and the cut-off on Wednesday is 0.7% lower than the price of the target asset.

　　根据彭博汇总的数据，这是GBTC自2017年3月以来首次出现折价。彭博行业研究认为，溢价的消失表明，在投资者寻求参与比特币的惊人涨势而将大笔资金投入GBTC之后，随着比特币涨势的停滞，投资者正寻求退出。

According to Bloomberg aggregates, this is the first time that GBTC has experienced a discount since March 2017. According to the Bloomberg industry study, the loss of premiums suggests that investors are seeking to withdraw as they seek to participate in the alarming rise in bitcoin and invest large amounts of money in GBTC.

　　“这是恐慌或获利抛盘。”彭博行业研究高级ETF分析师Eric Balchunas在研报中说。

"It's panic or profit to throw

　　巨幅震荡已成常态

Megashocks have become normal

　　在比特币的历史上，其大幅波动其实并不罕见。2017年，比特币曾一度攀升至近20000美元，随后在2018年下跌了80%。

In the history of Bitcoin, large fluctuations were not uncommon. Bitcoin climbed to nearly US$ 20,000 in 2017 and then fell by 80 per cent in 2018.

　　一位资深业内投资者指出，比特币的周期性明显，其在历史上隔一段时间会出现-60%、-70%级别的回撤，由于其没有固定的价值锚，巨幅震荡始终是加密资产的常态。

A senior industrial investor pointed out that the cyclical nature of Bitcoin was evident, with a historical retreat of -60 per cent and -70 per cent at various levels, and that because it did not have a fixed value anchor, the megashock was always the norm for encrypted assets.

　　2月25日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司副董事长查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）在出席公司活动时发表讲话，直言资本市场有泡沫迹象，这反映出了一些投资者的“危险”心态，即像赛马一样赌股票。同时，他建议投资者远离比特币。

On 25 February, Charlie Munger, Deputy Chairman of Birkhshire Hasaway, spoke at the company’s event to speak out against signs of bubbles in capital markets, reflecting the “dangerous” mentality of some investors, that is, betting on stocks like horses. At the same time, he advised investors to stay away from Bitcoin.

　　谈及比特币的交易价值，查理·芒格不认为比特币最终会成为世界的交换媒介。它太不稳定了，不能很好地作为交换媒介。他还认为比特币实际上是一种人造的黄金替代品。“因为我从不买黄金，所以我从不买比特币。”

Speaking of the value of Bitcoin's transactions, Charlie Manger doesn't think that Bitcoin will eventually become the world's medium of exchange. It's too unstable to be a good medium of exchange. He also believes that Bitcoin is actually a artificial gold substitute. "Because I never buy gold, so I never buy bitcoin."

　　关于比特币是否能成为交易货币，国际货币基金组织前总裁、欧洲央行行长拉加德与耶伦同样持否定观点。拉加德表示，比特币是一种具有高度投机性资产，人们利用比特币进行了很多“可笑的”交易甚至是“非法的洗钱活动”。

The former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank President Lagarde, has the same negative view about whether Bitcoin can become a trading currency as Yellen. Lagarde has argued that Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, and that it is used for many “funny” transactions, even “illegal money-laundering.”

　　据德意志银行最近的一项调查显示，目前，多数投资者已将比特币视为金融市场上最极端的泡沫。知名经济学家鲁比尼在近日亦表示，比特币和其他数字货币并没有内在价值。

According to a recent survey by the Deutsche Bank, most investors now view Bitcoin as the most extreme bubble in financial markets. The leading economist Rubini has recently stated that Bitcoin and other digital currencies have no intrinsic value.

　　机构投资者推动市场波动

Institutional investors drive market volatility

　　市场分析认为，实际上，比特币等加密资产的暴涨暴跌，一些投机者、企业财务主管和机构投资者正是助长市场波动的背后因素。

Market analysis suggests that, in fact, the surge and collapse of encrypted assets, such as Bitcoin, are behind market volatility by some speculators, corporate financial managers and institutional investors.

　　2021年2月8日，特斯拉宣布投资了15亿美元的比特币，并计划接受这种加密货币作为支付形式。除此之外，近来万事达卡和纽约梅隆银行等多家企业和机构也相继宣布投资比特币，这些动向助推了比特币价格的涨势。

On 8 February 2021, Tesla announced that it had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoins, and plans to accept this encoded currency as a form of payment. In addition, a number of firms and institutions, such as MasterCard and the New York Melon Bank, have recently announced investments in bitcoins, which have contributed to the increase in bitcoin prices.

　　特斯拉宣布投资比特币的消息传出后，比特币、以太币、莱特币等加密数字货币的价格大幅上涨。美国《福布斯》杂志刊文指出，“我们正目睹比特币作为一种资产在正常化”。

Tesla’s announcement of investment in Bitcoin has led to a dramatic increase in the price of encrypted digital currencies such as bitcoin, tatcoin, and Leitecoin. According to the American newspaper Forbes, “We are witnessing Bitcoin normalizing as an asset.”

　　《泰晤士报》报道，2021年1月以来，特斯拉投资比特币的账面利润约为9.3亿美元，这比其7.21亿美元的电动汽车年收入高出近30%。

The Times reported that, since January 2021, Tesla had invested in Bitcoin with a book profit of approximately $930 million, almost 30 per cent higher than its annual revenue of $721 million in electric cars.

　　比特币的暴涨暴跌也引发加密货币的支持者与质疑者的“撕裂”。前者认为比特币是一种具有对冲通胀等风险能力而被追捧的资产。后者则认为这是一场在货币和财政刺激助推之下的危险狂热行情。

The sharp ups and downs of Bitcoin have also caused the “crushing” of supporters and skeptics who consider Bitcoin to be a risk-taking asset, such as the ability to hedge against inflation. The latter considers it to be a dangerous fanaticism facilitated by monetary and fiscal stimulus.

　　摩根大通在策略报告指出，比特币可能与黄金竞争作为对抗新冠肺炎病毒危机中通货膨胀的潜在对冲工具。李超认为，近期比特币价格快速上涨，是全球天量流动性宽松未能进入实体经济流入金融市场，并推升部分稀缺资产的价格所致。其本质原因在于经济潜在增长率的下行，实体层面难以提供具有吸引力的资本回报率。

According to Morgan Chase’s strategy report, Bitcoin may compete with gold as a potential hedge against inflation in the new coronary pneumonia virus crisis. Lee argued that the recent rapid rise in Bitcoin’s prices was due to the inability of the global economy’s natural liquidity easing to enter the real economy into financial markets and to boost the prices of some of its scarce assets.

　　全球监管机构相继警示

Global Regulator Warnings

　　由于比特币等数字货币可以不经过任何银行和金融交易系统，同时又能实现全球任意地区交易，其早已站在了全球监管者的对立面。

Since digital currencies, such as Bitcoin, can go through any banking and financial transactions system while at the same time making global transactions free of charge, they have long been in opposition to global regulators.

　　面对近日比特币价格的频繁大幅波动，全球监管机构也相继发出警示。

Global regulators have issued successive warnings in the face of frequent and large fluctuations in bitcoin prices in recent days.

　　1月，英国金融行为监管局警告，投资加密资产通常意味着投资者需要承担非常高的风险。

In January, the British Financial Conduct Authority warned that investing in encrypted assets usually meant that investors had to take very high risks.

　　2月，德国银行业协会呼吁德国政府对数字货币进行更严格监管。在此之前，国际清算银行也发出警告，比特币并非真的货币，而是一种有崩溃风险的投机性资产。如果消费者通过杠杆买币，就得准备好“爆仓”、输掉所有钱。

In February, the German Banking Association called on the German government to regulate digital money more rigorously. Prior to that, the Bank for International Settlements warned that Bitcoin was not a real currency, but a speculative asset with a risk of collapse.

　　中国对比特币等数字货币也一直实行严格监管。2013年12月，人民银行等五部委发文指出，比特币并不是真正意义上的货币，不能且不应作为货币在市场上流通使用。2017年9月，人民银行等七部委联合发文，要求各类ICO（首次代币发行）立即停止，相关交易平台停止运营。

In December 2013, five ministries, including the People’s Bank, stated that Bitcoin was not a real currency and could not and should not be used as a currency in the market. In September 2017, seven ministries, including the People’s Bank, issued a joint letter calling for the immediate cessation of all types of ICOs (first issue of tokens), and the closure of related trading platforms.

　　同时，各国也在研究并加快推动数字货币建设。中国人民银行数字货币研究所2月24日表示，中国人民银行数字货币研究所加入多边央行数字货币桥研究项目，该项目旨在探索央行数字货币在跨境支付中的应用。

At the same time, countries are studying and accelerating digital currency-building. The Digital Monetary Institute of the People’s Bank of China, on February 24, stated that the Digital Monetary Institute of the People’s Bank of China had joined the Multilateral Central Bank Digital Monetary Bridge project, which was designed to explore the use of central bank digital currency in cross-border payments.

　　美联储官员埃里克·罗森格伦近日表示，预计随着各国央行逐步推出法定数字货币，人们没有理由再购买比特币。欧洲央行行长拉加德也表示，将加快推动数字欧元建设，欧洲央行希望拥有对私人稳定货币在欧盟法律地位的最终话语权。这也被认为欧洲央行将监管比特币。

US Federal Reserve official Eric Rosengren recently said that, as central banks gradually roll out their statutory digital currencies, there is no reason to buy bitcoin. European Central Bank President Lagarde also said that the promotion of digital euros would be accelerated, and the ECB would like to have the final say about the legal status of private stable currencies in the European Union.

　　记者于晗

Reporter Yu Xin Xin.

　　编辑 韩业清

Editor Han Ye Qing

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