经过监管重锤之后，比特币价格一度下跌至3万美元附近。
After a regulatory hammer, the price of Bitcoin fell at one time to around $30,000.
现在，比特币价格已经反弹至3.7万美元左右。
The price of Bitcoin has now rebounded to around $37,000.
该抄底了？
Time to get rid of it?
根据历史3轮大周期，我们发现，越往后，比特币价格涨幅越小，最后沦落为黄金那样，成为法币的完美映射。
On the basis of the three rounds of history, we find that the more the price of bitcoin rises, the smaller it falls into gold, the perfect map of the French currency.
也就是说，普通人的暴富机会，也会慢慢关闭。
In other words, the opportunities of ordinary people to be rich and rich are slowly closed down.
本文回答四个问题：
This paper answers four questions:
1、监管为何重锤比特币
1. Regulate why the hammering bitcoin
2、重锤之下，比特币会死么
Two, under the hammer, is Bitcoin going to die?
3、比特币四年一周期，下跌持续多久，最低跌到哪？
How long is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin going down?
4、应当注意当下哪些宏观背景
4. Attention should be given to the macro-level context of the current situation.
01
监管为何重锤比特币？
Why did
影响能源安全了！
affects energy security!
为何监管要重锤比特币？
Why do they need to re-heavy bitcoin?
煤炭、钢铁等大宗商品市场已经相当畸形，相当凶险，完美在《 》（ 点击蓝色字体查看文章）文章中明确呼吁： 监管该出重拳管管了，再不管就要出大事了！
The big commodity markets of coal, steel, etc. have become very deformed, very dangerous, and perfect is clearly called for in the article entitled "Calling on Blue Fonts to View the Articles: Regulate the Hard Fist, no matter what happens!"
商品价格暴涨，澳大利亚最得利，给了澳大利亚硬刚我们的底气。这其实就是一场金融战，必须要把商品价格打下来，否则我们太被动了。
The boom in commodity prices, Australia's most profitable, gave Australia a hard-on to us. It was a financial war, and it had to come down, or we were too passive.
5月14日以来，监管机构终于对大宗商品市场出手了，稳定价格、约谈相关负责人，切实降低了商品价格。
Since 14 May, regulators have finally taken action against commodity markets, stabilizing prices and interviewing relevant officials, effectively reducing commodity prices.
当然，比特币也跟这息息相关，因为比特币挖矿太耗能了，让本来就缺能耗的我们雪上加霜。
And, of course, bitcoin's got to do with it, because bitcoin digs too energy-intensive to add to what we already lack.
=
论据一：
英国剑桥大学的替代金融研究中心（CCAF）计算结果显示，比特币的年总能耗在40至445太瓦时之间，中位估计值约为130太瓦时，比肩英国，超过阿根廷。
The calculations of the Center for Alternative Financial Research (CCAF) of the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, show that the annual total energy of Bitcoin is between 40 and 445 watt-hours, with a median estimated value of about 130 watt-hours, which is higher than that of Argentina.
比特币消耗的能源中约三分之二来自化石燃料。
About two thirds of the energy consumed by Bitcoin comes from fossil fuels.
论据二：
4月6日，中科院和清华大学在《自然通讯》研究指出，中国比特币行业的年度能耗将在2024年达到296.59太瓦时，超过了意大利和沙特阿拉伯的能源消耗总量。若在2016年所有国家碳排放排名中，能排到第12位。
On April 6, the Chinese Academy of Science and Qinghua University, in their Natural Newsletter study, noted that China’s annual energy consumption in the Bitcoin industry would reach 296.59 TWh in 2024, surpassing the total energy consumption in Italy and Saudi Arabia.
论据三：
Arguments III:
根据IEA在2021年全球各国电力消耗排行数据，比特币耗电量已经超过挪威（124.05 TW·h/年）、荷兰等国（114.65 TW·h/年）等100多个国家和地区，排在全球28位左右。
According to IEA data on global electricity consumption in 2021, Bitcoin consumes more than 100 countries and territories, including Norway (124.05 TW h/year) and the Netherlands (114.65 TW h/year), about 28 places in the world.
所以，毋庸置疑，比特币挖矿确实耗能。
So, it goes without saying that bitcoin digs really consume energy.
但是，需要清楚一点是，全球的银行网络和黄金也同样耗能。
However, it needs to be made clear that global banking networks and gold are equally energy consuming.
由前对冲基金经理Michael Novogratz建立的银河数据公司用数据证明，传统的银行系统和黄金产业实际上比比特币网络消耗更多的能源。
The Galaxy Data Company, a former hedge fund manager, Michael Novogratz, uses data to demonstrate that the traditional banking system and the gold industry actually consume more energy than the Bitcoin network.
比特币的年用电量为113.89太瓦时，包括矿机需求、矿机功耗、池功耗和节点功耗。这一数值不到银行系统每年消耗的总能源（大约为263.72太瓦时）的一半。
Bitcoin consumes 113.89 watt-hours per year, including mine demand, mine power, pool power and node power. This is less than half of the total energy consumed annually by the banking system (approximately 263.72 watt-hours).
再延伸一下，房地产、吃穿住用行等等商品，也都耗能，任何人类活动都耗能。
By extension, goods such as real estate, food and clothing, etc., also consume energy, and any human activity consumes energy.
首先，这跟我们前一段的大政策，碳中和、碳达峰不符，严监管也理所当然。
First of all, this is not consistent with the big policy of our previous paragraph, carbon neutrality, carbon peaks, and strict regulation.
更重要的是，中国是挖矿的核心。
More importantly, China is at the heart of mining.
先延伸一下，中国提供比特币增量，决定比特币的价格走势。国外大型投资基金可能也持有比特币仓位，它们也能够影响市场，但是决定性还在我们这里。
expands by providing a bitcoin increment to determine the price of bitcoin. Large foreign investment funds may also hold bitcoin silos, and they can influence the market, but the decision is still with us.
看一下我国挖矿中心的数据：
Take a look at the data from our mining centre:
1、根据剑桥中学替代金融研究中心（CCAF）的报告，全球“挖矿”的能耗总量中，中国占70%。
1 According to the Cambridge Secondary School Alternative Financial Research Centre (CCAF), China accounts for 70 per cent of the total energy consumption of the global “mining”.
2、根据中科院和清华大学的研究，中国在全球的占比高达78%。
According to the studies of the Chinese Academy of Science and the University of Qinghua, China accounts for 78 per cent of the global population.
02
技术天敌不出现
Technology does not appear
比特币不会死
Bitcoin won't die.
比特币过往的崩盘历史，监管确实会导致比特币价格崩盘，但是更多是因为其自身原因，比如交易所数据被盗、硬分叉等等。
The history of Bitcoin crashes, and regulation does lead to bitcoin price collapses, but more so because of its own causes, such as the theft of exchange data, hard splits and so on.
另外，比特币之所以出圈，一个很大的契机就是，2013年，美国政府关闭了AW交易平台“丝绸之路”，没收了大概10亿美元的比特币。
In addition, one of the great opportunities for Bitcoin to get out was that, in 2013, the United States Government closed down the AW trading platform, the Silk Road, and confiscated approximately $1 billion in bitcoin.
也就是说，从诞生的那一刻起，比特币注定就是不受监管待见的品种。
That is, from the moment of birth, Bitcoin was destined to be an unsupervised species.
但是，技术天敌出现之前，也就是量子计算机大规模应用之前，比特币的这个需求仍然存在。
However, this demand remained in Bitcoin prior to the emergence of a technical predator, i.e., the large-scale application of quantum computers.
比如，这次疫情爆发，比特币的作用就又显现出来了：黑市交易中比特币充当交易媒介，比特币可以买疫苗。
For example, in the outbreak, the role of bitcoin became apparent again: in black-market transactions, bitcoin acts as a trader, and bitcoin can buy vaccines.
当下来看，超半数经济体认定比特币合法，仅有14个经济体认为比特币不合法，比特币仍然是主流。
At this point in time, more than half of the economies considered Bitcoin to be legal, only 14 considered it illegal, and Bitcoin remained the mainstream.
根据Coin Dance的统计，在全球257个经济体中，目前有132个经济体认定比特币合法，并未对其加以限制，占比超过52%。
According to Coin Dance, 132 of the world's 257 economies are currently legalized by Bitcoins, with no restrictions on them, accounting for over 52 per cent.
如果剔除掉未搜集到相关信息的经济体，则未对比特币限制的经济体占比要超过90%，仅有14个经济体认定比特币为非法或对其进行限制。
If economies that do not collect the relevant information are excluded, the proportion of economies that do not have a comparative currency limit is more than 90 per cent, with only 14 economies considering Bitcoin illegal or restricting it.
跟重要的是什么？超六成经济体认可其货币属性。
What's important about
从全球各经济体对于比特币性质的认定上来看，超过60%的经济体认为比特币具有某种程度的货币属性，比如可以用来作为支付手段。
In terms of the character of Bitcoin, more than 60 per cent of the global economies consider that bitcoin has a certain degree of monetary attributes, for example, that it can be used as a means of payment.
而接近三成经济体将其视为商品，超过一成的经济体将其作为财产看待。
Nearly 30 per cent of economies are treated as commodities and more than 10 per cent as property.
什么意思？比特币就相当于美元，甚至比美元的信誉更强。
What do you mean by strong? Bitcoin is the equivalent of a dollar, even stronger than a dollar.
你拥有比特币，基本上可以在全球买买买；如能用比特币的地方，让你去你也不去，都是些落后国家。
You have bitcoin, and you can basically buy and buy around the globe; if you can use bitcoin, you can go to some backward country.
一个关键问题是，未来全球会联合起来，共同抵制比特币么？绝无可能。
A key question for
人类的劣根性太严重了，各国政府谁都不会完全相信谁。
Human beings are too weak to be fully trusted by Governments.
就连外星人攻打地球了，我也不相信地球上的国家会联合起来，肯定有卖国贼，有投降派，有投机的国家。
Even if aliens attack the planet, I do not believe that the nations of the planet will unite. There must be traitors, surrenderers and speculative nations.
从技术上说，万一比特币或区块链是未来的技术方向，一个国家封杀之后，失去了未来的竞争优势怎么办？
Technically, what if a bitcoin or block chain is the future of technology, and after a country is closed down, it loses its future competitive advantage?
所以，即便强监管之下，比特币也不会死。
So, even under strong supervision, Bitcoin won't die.
03
四年一个大周期
four-year large cycle
该抄底了？
It's time to write it down?
比特币太神奇了，其他资产的价格，之所以有周期，要么由经济周期决定，要么由政策周期决定，要么由金融周期决定。等等。
Bitcoin is amazing: the price of other assets, the cycle is determined either by the economic cycle, by the policy cycle, or by the financial cycle, etc.
这些资产价格，都依附于一个强大的中心。
The prices of these assets depend on a strong centre.
实际上，比特币也有价格周期，其价格周期不是由谁决定，而是由其自身决定。
In fact, Bitcoin also has a price cycle, which is determined not by whom, but by itself.
设计之初，比特币有几个规则，1、比特币总量恒定；2、比特币挖矿减半；
At the beginning of the design, Bitcoin had several rules, with a constant total of 1 and 2 and a reduction in the number of bitcoin digs;
参与到这个游戏中的人，每个人都是规则的奴隶，这些规则是写进代码中的必然事件。
Everyone involved in this game is a slave to the rules that are necessary in the code.
单单这个理念，就吸引了一大批信徒，也是比特币长盛不衰的根源之一。
This idea alone attracts a large number of believers and is one of the root causes of the constant growth of Bitcoin.
历史上看，比特币曾经有三次减半：
Historically, bitcoin had been halved three times:
第一次减半发生在2012年11月28日，比特币奖励从50BTC降至25BTC； 第二次减半发生在2016年7月9日，比特币奖励从25BTC降至12.5BTC； 第三次减半发生在2020年5月12日，比特币奖励从12.5BTC降至6.25BTC。
The first halving of 每一次奖励减半，都催生了比特币大牛市！ Every time the strong prize is halved, it gives birth to the Pittcoin Bulls! 给大家梳理一下，比特币大周期。 Let's get you cleaned up, Bitcoins. 1、2011年-2014年比特币大周期：（4年） 1, large Bitcoin cycle 2011-2014: (4 years) 2011年6月，比特币最高32美元；2011年11月，比特币最低2美元。 In June 2011, Bitcoin was the highest of $32; in November 2011, it was the lowest of $2. 比特币回撤跌幅94%，回撤持续时间：半年。 Bitcoin dropped by 94%, duration of withdrawal: six months. 比特币奖励减半时间：2012年11月28日 Bitcoin incentive half time: 28 November 2012 比特币新一轮大牛市启动时间：2013年1月份。 Bitcoin's new round of cattle launch: January 2013. 大牛市比特币价格最高1241美元，涨幅620倍！ Big Cow City bitcoin up to $1241, a 620-fold increase! 2、2013年底-2017年底。（4年） 2013年底，比特币最高价格，1241美元；2015年1月份，比特币最低价格157美元。 At the end of 2013, Bitcoin had the highest price of $1241; in January 2015, it had the lowest price of $157. 比特币回撤跌幅87%；回撤持续时间：1年。 Bitcoin fell by 87 per cent; retreat duration: 1 year. 比特币奖励减半时间：2016年7月9日 Bitcoin incentives halved: 9 July 2016 比特币新一轮大牛市启动时间：2017年1月份。 Bitcoin's new round of cattle launch: January 2017. 大牛市比特币价格最高19870美元，涨幅126倍！ Big Bull has a price of up to 19870, a 126-fold increase! 3、2017年底-2021年初？（3年） 2017年底，比特币价格最高19870美元；2018年底，比特币价格最低3177美元。 At the end of 2017, the price was up to US$ 19870 in bitcoins; at the end of 2018, the price was down to US$ 3177 in bitcoins. 比特币回撤幅度，84%；回撤持续时间，一年。 Bitcoin retreat rate, 84 per cent; retreat duration, one year. 比特币奖励减半时间：2020年5月12日 Bitcoin incentive half time: 12 May 2020 比特币新一轮大牛市启动时间：2020年11月份。 Bitcoin's new round of cattle launch: November 2020. 大牛市比特币价格最高64778美元，涨幅20倍！ Big Bull's Bitcoin is up to $64778, a 20-fold increase! 根据比特币国外的周期规律，简单的类推比特币下一轮大周期。 规律：比特币持续下跌时间，1年；推测：这一轮比特币下跌应该会持续到2022年4月份。 Pattern: Bitcoin's going down for one year; presumably: this round of bitcoin's going down until April 2022. 规律：比特币价格至少会跌80%左右；推测：这一轮比特币价格最低为13000美元。 Pattern: Bitcoin prices will fall by at least 80 per cent; presumably: this round will have a minimum price of $13,000. 当下比特币价格为35000美元，“理论上”还有60%的跌幅。 The current Bitcoin price was $35,000, with a 60 per cent drop in “theoretically”. 规律：比特币奖励每4年减半；推测：下一次比特币减半时间2024年一季度。 Routine: Bitcoin awards are reduced by half every four years; presumably: the next bitcoin is reduced by half in the first quarter of 2024. 规律：比特币奖励减半之后都会催生大牛市；推测：下一次比特币牛市时间在2024年三季度。 Pattern: After halving the bitcoin reward, the bull market will be created; it is assumed that the next bitcoin cow will be in the third quarter of 2024. 规律：前几轮，比特币涨幅为620倍、126倍、20倍；推测：下一轮比特币涨幅5-10倍？最低价格6.5-13万美元。 Pattern: In previous rounds, bitcoin increased by 620 times, 126 times and 20 times; it is assumed that bitcoin increased by 5-10 times the next round and the lowest price by $65,000 to $130,000. 所以我们看到，越往后，比特币价格涨幅越小，最后沦落为黄金那样，成为法币的完美映射。普通人的暴富机会，也会慢慢关闭。 So we see that the less bitcoin prices rise, the less they fall into gold, the perfect map of French coins. The chances of ordinary people’s tumultuous wealth are closing down. 总结：按照以往规律，这一轮比特币熊市周期，将持续到2022年4月份，最低会跌至13000美元，下一次大牛市启动时间应该为2024年三季度，未来会飙升至13万美元。 Summary: According to past patterns, this cycle of Bitcoin Bear will continue until April 2022, with a minimum of $13,000, and the next cattle launch should take place in the third quarter of 2024, and will soar to $130,000 in the future. 04 注意：宏观背景变了！ Note: The macro background has changed! 需要注意的是什么呢？ What needs to be noticed? 宏观大环境发生了重大变化，2020年美国和日本践行MMT理论，让投资的底层逻辑发生了重大变化。 There has been a major change in the macro-environment of 疫情爆发后，无论是美国，还是日本、欧元区、英国，都快速放松了货币政策、大幅增加资产购买规模。 In the wake of the outbreak, monetary policy has been relaxed rapidly and asset purchases have increased significantly, both in the United States and Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom. 例如，美国、欧元区、日本货币当局的资产规模分别扩张了1.9、1.6、1.2倍。 For example, the size of the assets of the monetary authorities in the United States, the euro area and Japan expanded 1.9, 1.6 and 1.2 times, respectively. 受货币“大放水”推动，美国M2同比最高升至27%，创历史新高；日本、欧元区、英国M2同比，也分别升至历史高位的9.6%、12.3%、14.9%。将美、欧、日、英M2加总来看，同比激增至22%，刷新了数据公布以来的新高。 Motivated by the currency “blown water”, the US M2 has risen up to 27 per cent on a year-on-year basis, a record high; Japan, the eurozone, and the UK M2 on a year-on-year have also risen to 9.6 per cent, 12.3 per cent, 14.9 per cent, respectively, of historical highs. （来源：开源证券） (Source: Open Source Securities) 简单来说就是：法币加速贬值，比特币等资产加速上涨，异常凶猛！ Simply put, accelerates the devaluation of the French currency, speeds the rise of assets such as bitcoin, and acts incredibly ferocious! 换个角度看一下，比特币是一串数字，现在的法币存在银行账户，差不多也是一串数字，形态上都一样，数字而已。 In a different way, bitcoin is a string of numbers, and now the French have bank accounts, and it's almost a series of numbers, all in the same form, just numbers. 那么，我们可以用比特币来衡量其他的价格。 Well, we can measure other prices with bitcoin. 如果资产价格用比特币来衡量，还有泡沫么？没有。 If asset prices are measured in bitcoin, is there a bubble? No. 同样的，用茅台股价和特斯拉股价来衡量，很多资产价格也没有泡沫。 Similarly, many asset prices have no bubbles, as measured by low- and Tesla stock prices. 过去，大家是怎么判断价格疯狂上涨的？从法币的角度，美元、欧元等等。 In the past, how did you judge the price to rise? From the perspective of French, the dollar, the euro, and so on. 但是大家想一下，如果一个人疯了，可能就是这个人有问题，但是如果所有人都疯了，那么咱们判断疯的标准是不是出现了问题？ But let's just think, if someone's crazy, it's probably this guy, but if everyone's crazy, then do we have a problem with the test of madness? 同样的是，如果一种价格疯了，可能就是这个资产有泡沫，但是如果所有资产价格都疯了，那么是不是衡量的标准出现了问题？ Similarly, if a price goes crazy, it may be that the asset has a bubble, but if all asset prices go crazy, then is there a problem with the measure? 所以，归根结底，是法币出现了问题：不是资产价格飙升，不是物价飙升，而是法币在贬值。 So, in the end, there is a problem with the French currency: it is not the asset price that soars, it is not the price that soars, it is the French currency that depreciates. 资产价格和物价都没问题，有问题的是法币！如果不以法币为价值锚来衡量，很多问题都豁然开朗。 The price and price of 一切价格飙升，都是货币现象！ All the price hikes are currency! 我们看一下美联储资产负债表和比特币。 Let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet and Bitcoin. 比特币诞生于2008年，美联储资产负债表也是从2008年开始飙升。 Bitcoin was born in 2008 and the Fed's balance sheet rose sharply from 2008. 2008年，美联储资产负债表翻番；随后2008-2020年，美联储资产负债表规模缓慢增长，较2008年初扩张了4倍，较2008年末扩张了2倍。 In 2008, the Fed's balance sheet doubled; then, in 2008-2020, the Fed's balance sheet grew slowly, four times more than at the beginning of 2008 and twice as much as at the end of 2008. 越往后，美联储资产负债表规模扩张越慢，甚至在2016年的时候，美联储资产负债表规模还有所缩减。 Afterward, the size of the Fed's balance sheet expanded at a slower pace, and even in 2016, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased. 再看2020年，美联储资产负债表规模也翻倍，这其实相当于比特币价格刚刚起飞的阶段。 In 2020, the Fed also doubled the size of its balance sheet, which is exactly the same as when bitcoin prices just took off. 未来，美联储，以及全球主要央行会继续大放水。 In the future, the Fed, as well as the major global central banks, will continue to pour water. 比如，德银分析师已经预计，2050年美联储资产负债表规模将扩张至40万亿美元，也就是扩张5倍。全球流动性达到100万亿美元。 For example, German and silver analysts have predicted that the size of the Fed’s balance sheet will expand to $40 trillion in 2050, or fivefold. Global liquidity will reach $10 trillion. 流动性泛滥的影响有3个： has three effects: 1、下跌持续时间可能会被缩短。 1. The duration of the decline may be shortened. 之前都是持续1年见底，这一次比特币见底时间可能会在半年以内。 This was preceded by a one-year end-of-year period, and this time the bottom-of-the-year period for Bitcoin may be less than six months. 也就是这一轮熊市顶多持续到2020年底。 That is to say, this bear city will last at most until the end of 2020. 2、回撤幅度会缩小。 2. The range of withdrawals will be reduced. 之前回撤动不动就是80%，这一次可能会在50%左右。 The previous withdrawal was 80 per cent, and this could be around 50 per cent. 也就是说，这一轮比特币大熊市最低价格可能会在3.25万美元左右。 In other words, the lowest price in the bear market for this round is likely to be around $3.25 million. 3、下一轮比特币大牛市价格涨幅扩大。 3. The next round has seen an increase in the price of the Big Cow in Bitcoin. 虽然比特币价格涨幅遵循越来越小的规律，但是最后的涨幅一定比预测的大，不能按照5-6倍的倍差简单计算，只能比之前的高。 Although bitcoin price increases follow a smaller and smaller pattern, the final increase must be larger than predicted, not five to six times as simple as the previous one. 3.25万美元*5或10倍=16.25万美元或者32.5万美元。 $3.25 million* 5 or 10 times = $16.25 million or $3.25 million. 真实的市场，不会简单的重复过去和按逻辑去走。我们的数据和逻辑，仅提供一个概率，供大家参考。 Real markets don't simply repeat the past and follow logic. Our data and logic only provide a probability for everyone. 最后，我们说一下前面文章的观点，。很多人对这个共识理解存在很大偏差，认定比特币就是骗局。 And finally, let's say what we saw in the previous article. There are a lot of people who disagree on the understanding that bitcoin is a fraud. 大家要清楚一点，世界上没有完全统一的共识，拥有的都是部分人的共识。 Let's be clear: there is no fully unified consensus in the world and there is a consensus among some. 如果不信，你可以用你认为共识的东西，去问一下网友，看看这是不是他们的共识。你绝对得不到完全一致的答案，如果得到了一致的答案，只能说明你的圈子太封闭了。 If you don't believe it, you can ask your network if it's what you think it is. You don't get exactly the same answer, and if you get the same answer, it's just that your circle is too closed. People in the ring, people in the ring, who price antiques are their agreement, and outsiders think that a broken can is worth so much? People in the circle, the limited version is their consensus, and outsiders don't think it's just a toy? 在现实中，无论哪个圈的人，都有人赚了大钱，有人破了产，呈正态分布，币圈也一样。 In reality, no matter what circle, people make a lot of money, people break down, they get a normal distribution, and so do currency circles. 你只能赚你认知范围的钱，这就是真理。 That's the truth.
古董圈的人，给古董的定价就是他们的共识，而圈外人会觉得一个破罐子怎么会值那么多钱？ 乐高圈的人，限量版的定价就是他们的共识，圈外人会觉得不就是个玩具么怎么会值那么多钱？ 炒鞋圈的人，联名款的定价就是他们的预期，圈外人会觉得不就是一双鞋么，价格炒这么高就是神经病。 同样的，币圈的人，给比特币的定价，就是他们的共识，圈外人会觉得，不就是一场大骗局么？
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