比特币 疯涨背后的危机
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}The crisis in the back.
比特币在多国监管政策的变动下，价格在经历上蹿下跳的行情后，向着5万元人民币径直而去。近来，关于比特币的消息也不绝于耳。虽然11月1日开始，国内三大比特币交易平台全部停止交易业务，但另一边世界最大交易所——芝加哥商品交易所(CME)却宣布将从2017年第四季度推出比特币期货，目前正等待监管审核。在芝加哥商品交易所宣布拟上线比特币期货后，比特币价格迎来一波暴涨行情。11月2日，国际已有多家比特币交易平台人民币报价突破5万元，美元价格也突破7000美元大关。
Bitcoin, in the wake of changes in multinational regulatory policy, has gone up and down to 50,000 yuan. Recently, news of bitcoin has also been heard. Although the country’s three main Bitcoin trading platforms have all stopped trading since 1 November, the Chicago Commodity Exchange, the world’s largest exchange, has announced that it will launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, and is currently awaiting regulatory review.
人们一边惊叹着比特币顽强的生命力和上涨速度，一边后悔着错过了这波暴涨神话。一冷一热的比特币命运究竟会怎样？
People lamented the resilience of Bitcoin and the speed of its rise, while regretting that it had missed the myth. What would happen to the fate of the cold and hot bitcoin?
看不懂的比特币 内冷外热
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不管是比特币投资者，还是其他对虚拟货币有所行动的人们，最近几个月真心可谓备受煎熬。从2017年下半年开始，市场就不断传出各种风声，这种风声鹤唳最终比想象的来得更早，来得更狠。9月4日中国央行等七部委发布《关于防范代币发行融资风险公告》，ICO交易平台被全面叫停；9月14日比特币中国宣布停止平台上所有数字货币交易；9月30日前所有用户即将停止虚拟货币交易，并将于10月31日前逐步停止所有数字资产兑人民币的交易业务。
Since the second half of 2017, the market has continued to sound much earlier and harder than expected. On 4 September, seven ministries, including the Central Bank of China, issued a bulletin on the risk of preventing the issuance of funds in currencies, and the ICO trading platform was completely shut down; on 14 September, Bitco, China, announced the cessation of all digital currency transactions on the platform; and by 30 September, all users were about to stop virtual currency transactions and would phase out all digital assets against the renminbi.
急速撤退的投资平台、各个微信群里欲哭无泪的投资者、忙着甩卖的接盘侠成了币圈众生相。
The investment platform for the rapid withdrawal, the tearless investors in the micro-credit herds, the valedictorian who was busy selling it became the currency ring.
利空消息的不断释放让大部分中国人都确信，别管你是比特币还是什么币，反正全都完了，比特币交易价格持续跳水正在意料之中。
The constant release of Li Qin has convinced most Chinese that you are Bitcoin or whatever, that it is all over, and that the price of the Bitcoin transaction is continuing to jump as expected.
谁曾想，一个多月后形势突然逆转，在政策强势打压，中国退出比特币市场的情况下，比特币价格却再次暴涨？
Who would have thought that, after more than a month, when the situation was suddenly reversed, when the policy was stunned and China withdrew from the Bitcoin market, the price of Bitcoin rose again?
曾经活跃的币圈微信群里不少人都在感叹，看不懂。也有人发出了“是不是还有戏”的疑问。
There's a lot of people in the active currency circles who wonder if there's a show or not.
币圈“大撤退” 国内短期没戏
不管国外“有戏没戏”，国内短期内是肯定“没戏”了。国内比特币交易正式终结。监管部门动真格的了。
Regardless of what's going on in the country, it's definitely going to be over in the short term. The domestic bitcoin deal is officially over. The regulators are real.
“币圈的人都在往海外撤，现在他们主要在海外活动了”，区块链专家、北京大学新一代信息技术研究院金融科技研究中心主任董宁告诉科技日报记者。董宁早年在IBM从事区块链研究，是IBM Blockchain社区发起人，他告诉记者，随着这些年政策的分层和形势变化，链圈、币圈逐渐泾渭分明，身在链圈，币圈的风云变幻已是看不懂。“现在他们主要在海外活动，就更看不清了。”董宁说。
“All the people in the currency ring are withdrawing abroad, and they are now operating mainly abroad.” Tung Ning, an expert in block chains and director of the Centre for Financial Science and Technology Studies of the New Generation of the Institute of Information Technology of Beijing University, told the science and technology daily journalist. Tung Ning, who was working on block chains in IBM earlier in the year, was the founder of the IBM Blockchai community, told journalists that, as the layers and situations of policy changed over the years, the chains and currency circles became more distinct, in chains and in circles, and the wind and clouds of the currency circles became less clear.
中央财经大学金融法研究所所长、中国互联网金融创新研究院院长黄震在接受科技日报采访时表示，最近国内主要的比特币交易平台确实开始把主要业务搬迁到海外。
In an interview with the daily Science and Technology Journal, the President of the Institute of Financial Law of the Central University of Finance and Economics and the President of the China Institute of Internet Financial Innovation (CIFI) said that the country's main Bitcoin trading platform had recently begun to relocate its main business abroad.
但是他建议大家还是要谨慎行事，他说，由于对于海外比特币交易市场研究不够透彻和准备不够充分，中国的比特币交易平台转战海外还需要进行选址调研和相关问题沟通洽谈，不能贸然跑出去，以免陷入不必要的困境之中。
He suggested, however, that caution should be exercised, saying that since research on the foreign Bitcoin trading market was not thorough and well prepared, China's Bitcoin trading platform would also need site research and communication on related issues abroad, and would not be able to venture out in order to avoid unnecessary dilemmas.
上涨有理由 不排除人为因素
黄震是国内研究互联网金融的著名专家之一，对比特币有长时间的关注和研究。在他看来，不管是国内的冷还是国外的热，背后都有原因。
The earthquake was one of the country’s leading experts in Internet finance, and Bitcoin had a long history of attention and research. In his view, there were reasons behind it, whether it was cold or hot abroad.
国内对比特币的定位基本是仅有投资价值的虚拟货币，与区块链是完全切割的，区块链有应用价值，鼓励发展，但比特币彻底遭禁。但在国外，区块链和数字货币存在不同程度的融合，官方的态度相对宽容。
The location of domestic bitcoin is essentially a virtual currency with only investment value, which is completely cut off from the chain of blocks, which has an application value to encourage development, but which is completely banned. But abroad, there is varying degrees of convergence between block chains and digital money, and official attitudes are relatively tolerant.
值得一提的是，最近一些年西方国家的货币超发让人们对实质货币信心大失，让比特币在这几年时间形成了相当大的市场规模和舆论影响力。黄震表示，到现在，比特币已不是某一个国家或是少数国家禁止就能让它消失的，它将会以一种货币形式继续存在。他告诉科技日报记者，目前比特币在日本发展比较快，已经有了不少的应用场景和支付生态，在某种程度上具备了货币的职能。
It is worth mentioning that the currency excesses in recent years in Western countries have led to a great loss of confidence in the real currency, allowing Bitcoin to create considerable market size and public opinion influence over these years. The yellow earthquake suggests that by now, Bitcoin is not banned by a single country or a few countries, and that it will continue to exist in monetary form.
资深数字货币研究员肖磊认为，芝加哥商品交易所上线比特币的意义很大，因为期货是全球都非常主流的交易品种，加入期货市场的话，也就是被主流金融市场接纳，会有更多的金融机构或者比较大的对冲资金进入比特币市场，加快比特币的流动。
The Senior Digital Currency Researcher Shaw argued that it was significant that the Chicago Commodity Exchange was on-line with Bitcoin, because futures were a very dominant global variety of transactions, and if they joined the futures market, they would be accepted by mainstream financial markets, and more financial institutions or larger hedge funds would enter the Bitcoin market and speed up the movement of bitcoin.
曾几何时，人们坚定地认为比特币的暴涨是因为有了中国人的加入，但是这一次在市场去中国化之后还能有如此高的涨幅，黄震认为，除了前面提到的因素，也不排除有一部分人在影响市场。
Once upon a time, it was firmly believed that the surge in Bitcoin was due to Chinese participation, but this time after the de-Chinaization of the market, it was felt that, in addition to the factors mentioned earlier, it did not preclude a segment of the population from influencing the market.
各国有差异 命运难预测
There are differences between countries and fate is difficult to predict
在数字货币的发展历程中，不同国家对它们的认识一直存在差异，这些不同也在一定程度上导致了各国在比特币政策上的差异。
In the course of the development of digital currencies, there are persistent differences in their perception in different countries, and these differences also contribute to some extent to differences in the policies of countries with respect to bitcoin.
我国对数字货币和区块链是分开的。数字货币的定性是虚拟货币，只能由央行主导数字货币的发行，对于民间流行的比特币等各种代币是严厉禁止的。但是，对区块链的研究，政府是极为鼓励的。
The characterization of digital currency is virtual, with central banks taking the lead in the issuance of digital currency, which is strictly prohibited for all kinds of indignities, such as popular bitcoins. But, in the case of block chains, the government is extremely encouraging.
“我认为政府采取的态度有一定的合理性”，黄震说，因为区块链有更多应用，对金融行业的发展意义重大。至于比特币以后在我国是不是就再无生机，他认为目前还不好说，“目前处在互联网金融整治的关键节点，政策相对严厉，至于以后会不会根据形势的变化在政策上有所调整，还不确定”。
“I think there is some legitimacy in the approach taken by the government.” The earthquake says that because of the increased use of the block chain, it is important for the development of the financial sector. As to whether Bitcoin is no longer viable in our country after that, he considers it difficult to say at this point that “at the key point of financial regulation of the Internet, the policy is relatively stringent, and it is uncertain whether the policy will be adjusted in the light of the changing situation in the future.”
但是，黄震强调，在数字化变革的时代，不管是区块链还是比特币对金融的影响才刚开始，我们要以发展的眼光看待新事物，认真对待比特币，关注它的后续发展。
However, the earthquake stressed that in an era of digital change, the financial impact of either block chains or bitcoin has only just begun, and that we need to look at new things from a development perspective, take bitcoin seriously and follow its course.
本报记者 李 艳
Reporter Lee Yan.
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