作者：佬郭
Author: Guo Guo
周三晚，比特币又刷新了历史纪录——站上了2万美元大关。
Wednesday night, Bitcoin updated its history — standing on the $20,000 mark.
时隔三年，比特币又迎来了一波牛市。
Three years later, Bitcoin had another wave of cattle.
一时之间，币圈狂欢，加密货币投资者纷纷惊呼见证奇迹。币安（Binance）和Coinbase交易所因为突然暴增的交易量出现了宕机。
In the middle of the day, currency circles hurried, and encrypt currency investors cried out to witness the miracles. The Binance and Coinbase exchanges showed up because of a sudden surge in transactions.
在这场加密货币狂欢盛宴中，机构投资者已经赚得盆满钵满，而比特币空头则损失惨重。
During this encrypt currency party, institutional investors have made huge profits, while Bitcoin has lost a huge amount of money.
全网加密货币实施爆仓数据显示，截至9：16，过去一小时的爆仓量达到7.73亿元，过去24小时的爆仓量达到44.85亿美元。
Data from the Internet-wide encrypt currency implementation explosion data show that, as at 9:16, the level of blasts in the past hour had reached $773 million and in the last 24 hours, $4.485 billion.
创下历史新高后，机构唱多的声音越来越响亮，比特币将何去何从？完胜传统资产的比特币
从2009年诞生至今，比特币等加密货币资产一直备受争议。比特币上破20000美元大关后，就有投资者认为，比特币本身根本没有价值，一切上涨都是因为炒作。 Since its birth in 2009, encrypted monetary assets, such as bitcoins, have been controversial. After Bitcoins broke the $200 threshold, investors argued that bitcoins themselves were worthless, and that all the upswings had been made. 这样的声音从比特币诞生至今，一直没有消失过。可如果我们回头去看过去十年比特币的表现，将它与传统的资产进行对比，我们会发现，就是这么一个被人认完全没有价值的虚拟资产，过去十年里几乎“秒杀”了所有传统资产。 That voice has not disappeared since the birth of Bitcoin. But if we look back at the performance of bitcoin over the past decade and compare it to traditional assets, we find that this is a virtual asset that has been recognized as completely worthless and that has almost “killed” all traditional assets over the last decade. 投资策略师拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）对过去十年比特币的回报率进行了统计，结果如下图所示，过去十年它的总回报超过6200000%，年化回报率也超过了200%。 The investment strategist Raoul Pal measured the returns of Bitcoin over the past decade, resulting in a total return of more than 6200000 per cent and an annualized return of more than 200 per cent over the last decade, as shown in the figure below. 连过去十年表现最好的纳斯达克100指数，都被远远甩开，该指数过去十年的总回报为512.5%，年化回报率为20%，在除了加密货币以外的其他资产中，已经是佼佼者了。而一直被拿来跟比特币作比较的黄金更不用说了，其过去十年的总回报率和年化回报率还不到比特币的一个零头。 Even the best performer of the last decade
在过去十年里，比特币仅有两年的回报率为负，分别为2014年（-58%）和2018年（-73%），而在这之前，比特币都是先翻了十几倍、甚至几十倍。 In the past decade, Bitcoin had a negative return of only two years, in 2014 (-58 per cent) and 2018 (-73 per cent), before which Bitcoin had more than a dozen times or even dozens of times more. 上述图表还显示出一个规律，在比特币的年度收益出现负值前，都是先连续涨了3年，而今年则是比特币自上次出现负收益后，连续上涨的第二年，如果这个规律真的存在，意味着它还会接着上涨。当然，这个规律并不一定会应验。 The chart also shows a pattern of three consecutive years before the negative value of Bitcoin’s annual earnings, and this year is the second consecutive year since the last negative gain, which, if it did exist, would mean that it would rise. Of course, the rule does not necessarily follow. 我们再来看一张图。过去十年，美国科技股的表现有目共睹，它们也是美股牛市的主力军。然而，即便是过去10年增长最疯狂的美国科技巨头，其增长速度也比不上比特币。 And let's look at one more picture. The U.S. Science and Technology Unit has performed well over the past decade, and they are the main force in the United States stock market. And yet, even the craziest-growing U.S. technology giants in the last 10 years have grown faster than Bitcoin. 由此可见，在过去十年里，尽管人们对比特币的质疑一直都在，但比特币的价格却一直在上涨。这像极了过去十年的美股——在一片唱空声中屡创新高。 Thus, the price of Bitcoin has been rising over the last decade, despite the fact that questions have been raised about it. This is like the US share of the last decade — it's in the middle of a singout. 根据美银的基金经理调查，如今做多比特币已经成为第三大拥挤交易，由此可见比特币的受欢迎程度。 According to the Bank's fund manager, doing Dobitco is now the third most crowded transaction, which shows the popularity of Bitcoin. 谁造就的比特币牛市？ Who made the Bitcoin Cattle? 3年前那波比特币牛市是由散户主导，这一次机构投资者成为了主力。 Three years ago, the City of Napobitcoin was dominated by the diaspora, and this time institutional investors became the main force. 今年，全球央行大规模印钞和刺激措施引发了人们对大规模通胀的担忧，人们将现金转向比特币等可以抗通胀的资产。 This year, the global central bank’s large-scale printing of banknotes and stimulus measures raised concerns about large-scale inflation, shifting cash to inflation-resistant assets such as Bitcoin. 如今，发达国家的利率已接近或低于零，各国政府的财政支出加上央行的债务货币化已成为刺激经济增长的主要方式。货币供应大量增加的后果将是货币贬值，并有可能引发通货膨胀。最终，所有这些新创造的数万亿的流动资金都进入了加密货币等替代货币。 Today, interest rates in developed countries are near or below zero, and fiscal spending by governments, coupled with the monetization of central banks’ debt, has become the main means of stimulating economic growth. The result of a significant increase in money supply will be currency depreciation, with the potential to trigger inflation. 全球央行大放水和空前的财政刺激，也使得传统资产的收益越来越低，投资者手中不缺资金，而是缺能够给他们带来高回报的标的。 The global central bank has also made the returns on traditional assets increasingly low and investors have no shortage of funds, but rather a lack of targets that would provide them with high returns. 根据富达数字资产上周发布的报告，60%的受访机构投资者都表示未来会考虑在资产组合中配置非传统、高度不确定性但潜在收益颇丰的数字资产。 According to a report released last week, 60 per cent of institutional investors interviewed indicated that they would consider in the future the placement of non-traditional, highly uncertain but potentially profitable digital assets in the portfolio. 也就是说，全球范围内的货币宽松政策使得比特币成为了新冠疫情经济下的绝对受益者。 In other words, monetary easing at the global level has made Bitcoin an absolute beneficiary of the new crowning economy. 还可以从供需的角度来解释这轮比特币疯涨行情。自今年5月份比特币完成了自诞生以来的第三次减半之后，每个区块的奖励已经降至6.25个比特币，供应大幅减少。在需求激增的情况下，现在的比特币更多是存量市场的供需博弈，这也是决定比特币价格的一个关键要素。 Since May this year, when Bitcoin was halved for the third time since its birth, the incentive per block has been reduced to 6.25 bitcoins, with a sharp reduction in supply. In the face of a surge in demand, bitcoins are now more a match between supply and demand in the stock market, a key factor in determining Bitcoin prices. 如果只有以上因素，或许还不足以让机构对比特币趋之若鹜。还有一个因素也对比特币的疯涨起到至关重要的作用。 If there is only one of these factors, it may not be enough to allow the agency to move on to bitcoin. One of the other factors is also the critical role played by Bitcoin’s insane rise. 今年1月份，灰度（ Grayscale Investment）比特币信托获批成为首个符合美国证券交易委员会标准的数字资产工具。10月12日，灰度以太坊信托注册申请正式获得通过。 In January of this year, the Grayscale Investment was approved as the first digital asset tool to meet the United States Securities and Exchange Commission standards. On October 12, the Grayscale registration application for the Taiyo Trust was officially approved. 机构投资者大都偏向价值投资，他们的持仓周期一般都会很长，不是今天买，涨了明天就卖，大多属于长期的战略持仓。而之前，加密货币领域缺少合规的产品，监管也严重缺失。因此，在以往的比特币牛市中，很少看到机构的身影。 Most institutional investors tend to invest in value, and they usually have long storage cycles, not today, up tomorrow, and mostly long-term strategic holdings. Before that, there was a lack of compliant products in the area of encryption and a serious lack of regulation. 而灰度比特币信托产品的合规化改变了上述情况。根据已公开披露的信息，截止2020年11月9日，共有23家公司（合计29个机构级账户）持有灰度比特币信托份额，持仓信托份额数总计5955.32万份，占灰度比特币信托已发行份额的11.55%。 According to publicly disclosed information, as of 9 November 2020, 23 companies (out of a total of 29 agency-level accounts) held a share of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust, with warehouse holdings totalling 59,553.2 thousand, or 11.55% of the share of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust issued. 这23家公司中包括了加密资产借贷公司、对冲基金、共同基金、私人财富公司、咨询顾问公司、家族办公室等。 These 23 companies include encryption asset lending companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, private wealth companies, consulting firms, family offices, etc. 由此可见，灰度比特币信托产品的合规化为基金、家族办公室等合格投资者提供了购买比特币资产的成熟渠道。 Thus, compliance with the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust products provides qualified investors such as the Fund, the Family Office and others with mature channels for purchasing Bitcoin assets. 未来这种趋势可能还会加快。这些大型投资者持续买入灰度比特币信托产品的背后或许是一场不可逆的财富转移。 This trend is likely to accelerate in the future. It may be an irreversible transfer of wealth behind the continued buy-in by these large investors of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust. 因此，表面上看是机构造就了这轮比特币牛市，实际上，它们只是在顺应市场的发展趋势罢了。 Thus, on the face of it, institutions have created this cycle of bitcoin cattle, which, in fact, are only responding to market trends. 突破2万美元大关后，比特币何去何从？ Where's Bitcoin going after 20,000 dollars? 在昨晚（12月16日）比特币突破2万美元大关后，很多人的第一反应可能都是“这太疯狂了”！ Last night, after Bitcoin broke the $20,000 mark, a lot of people's first reaction might be, "This is crazy!" 在发文前，比特币还一度涨至22000美元上方，现在很多人关心的问题是，比特币到顶了吗？这两天比特币的日线图和2017年暴跌前有点相似，如下图所示，2017年（左）比特币在创下历史新高的时候出现了跳空高开的行情，昨天（右）比特币突破20000美元大关后，今天也是跳空高开了。 Before sending the message, bitcoin had risen to over $22,000, and the concern of many now was that bitcoin had reached its peak. The two days of bitcoin’s Japan map were somewhat similar to those of 2017 before it collapsed. As the figure below shows, in 2017, bitcoin (left) was on the verge of jumping at the height of its history, and yesterday, when Bitcoin (right) broke the $200 threshold, it was on the way today. 这走势惊人地相似，但结果会不会一样呢？后面几天的行情或许会给出答案。 That's an amazing similarity, but isn't it the same? The next few days might give us an answer. 需要注意的是，这轮牛市的主力军，机构投资者目前并没有撤退的迹象，机构对比特币的兴趣继续上升，一些机构还在加仓比特币。 It is important to note that the main forces of the Bull City, institutional investors do not show any signs of withdrawal at this time, that institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to rise, and that some institutions continue to build up bitcoin. CoinTelegraph周三上午报道称，一家在伦敦证券交易所上市的投资管理公司Ruffer Investment Company Limited披露了其新的比特币投资战略，Ruffe在周二表示，该公司已将比特币纳入其Multi-Strategies基金，主要是作为抵御法定货币“持续贬值”的防御性举措。该基金目前持有的比特币资产约占总资产的2.5%。 CoinTelegraph reported on Wednesday morning that Ruffer Investment Company Limited, an investment management company listed on the London Stock Exchange, disclosed its new Bitcoin investment strategy, and that Ruffy indicated on Tuesday that it had included Bitcoin in its Multi-Strategies Fund, mainly as a defensive measure against the “continuing devaluation” of the legal currency. The Fund currently held about 2.5 per cent of its total assets. 数据库软件公司MicroStrategy是投资比特币的典型代表，该公司8月11日宣布将2.5亿美元的通胀对冲基金全部投入到数字货币中。上周五，该公司又直接购买了5000万美元的比特币，本周三，它又将原本4亿美元的债券发行规模扩大至5.5亿美元，筹集的资金将用于购买更多的比特币。 The database software company, MicroStrategy, a typical representative of the investment in Bitcoin, announced on 11 August that it would invest $250 million in inflation hedge funds in digital currency. Last Friday, the company purchased another $50 million in bitcoins directly, and on Wednesday, it expanded the size of the original $400 million bond issue to $550 million, and the funds raised will be used to purchase more bitcoins. 昨晚比特币大涨的同时，该公司的股价上涨了6%。该公司投资比特币5个月，盈利已经超过了它过去五年在传统软件业务上的净利润之和。该公司股价一个月翻了一倍。 The company’s share price rose by 6 per cent at the same time that Bitcoin rose sharply last night. The company invested in Bitcoin for five months and earned more than the sum of its net profits in traditional software business over the past five years. The company’s share price doubled a month. 值得注意的是，这家公司看上去不知名，但其背后的资本相信大家都不陌生。根据MicroStrategy披露的信息显示，其最大股东是贝莱德资产；第二大股东是世界最大的基金公司先锋领航基金；第七大股东是罗素投资；第十大股东是文艺复兴科技基金公司。 It is worth noting that this company looks unknown, but the capital behind it is no stranger to everyone. According to the information disclosed by MicroStrategy, its largest shareholder is the assets of
因此，MicroStrategy对比特币的大规模投资，很大程度上代表着上述四大传统金融巨头对比特币的态度。 Therefore, the large-scale investment by MicroStrategy in Bitcoin represents, to a large extent, the attitude of the four traditional financial giants mentioned above. 金十在早上的文章中也提到，机构投资者目前仍看好比特币，他们认为，突破2万美元心理关口仅仅只是开始，接下来将突破3万美元大关。古根海姆投资公司首席投资官米纳德（Minerd）甚至表示比特币最终将攀升至40万美元左右。 Kim X also mentioned in this morning’s article that institutional investors are still looking at Bitcoin, arguing that breaking the 20,000-dollar psychological threshold is only the beginning, and that the 30,000-dollar closure will follow. The Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim’s Investment Corporation, Minerd, even suggested that Bitcoin would eventually climb to around $400,000. 周三还有一条消息值得留意，芝商所打算从2021年2月8日开始推出以太坊期货，新合约将以现金结算，目前正在等待监管审查。以太坊当前是市值和日交易量排名第二的加密货币。如果审查获得通过，又将吸引新一批资金进场。 On Wednesday, there is another news that the Cheetos are planning to launch Ether’s futures as of February 8, 2021, and that the new contract will be settled in cash and is currently awaiting regulatory review. Ethercorps is now the second-largest encrypted currency in market value and daily turnover. If the review is adopted, it will attract new funds. 因此，长期来看，比特币的上涨趋势或许没那么容易结束，但对于散户投资者来说，需要小心比特币的短期回调，回调个1000美元、2000美元都是正常的。 Thus, in the long run, the upward trend in bitcoin may not be easy to end, but for bulk investors, the short-term return of bitcoin needs to be careful, with a return of $1,000 and $2,000 being normal. 个人投资者在投资比特币等加密货币之前，应该先考虑清楚自己的风险承受能力，理性投资，切忌盲目追多。 Before investing in encrypted currency such as bitcoin, individual investors should consider their own risk tolerance, rational investment, and obscurity. & nbsp;
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