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距离纽约金融服务局批准稳定币GUSD与PAX，已有半月。
Half a month after the approval of GUSD and PAX by the New York Financial Services Authority.
但人们围绕这一事件的讨论，余波未消。
However, the discussion surrounding this event has continued unabated.
这是有史以来第一次，稳定币被纳入监管框架。外界惊呼，此举有可能“重塑世界经济格局”。
For the first time in history, a stable currency has been incorporated into the regulatory framework. The outside world has been alarmed that this could “reform the world economic landscape”.
而在中国，也有一批区块链从业者跃跃欲试，试图推出锚定人民币的稳定币，打入国际市场。
In China, there is also a group of block-chain operators who are trying to jump into the international market by introducing a stable currency that anchors the renminbi.
稳定币能否从入市筹码、避险工具，变成改变世界的金融工具？
Can a stable currency be transformed from an entry chip, a risk-free tool, into a financial instrument to change the world?
01?USDT谜团
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}01?
业界公认的稳定币始祖，是2015年诞生的USDT。
The industry has been recognized as the first currency of stability, the United States of America (USDT), which was born in 2015.
它由美国Tether公司发行，初始发行量为9万枚。Tether公司承诺，随时可将USDT以1:1的比例兑换成美元，USDT因此具备了与美元等价的“立身之本”。
It was issued by the United States company Tether, with an initial circulation of 90,000. Tether promised to convert the USDT to the United States dollar at 1:1 ratio at any time, so that the USDT would have a “one-size-fits-all” equivalent to the United States dollar.
但USDT并非一开始就大红大紫。实际上，在诞生之后的两年时间内，它一直默默无闻。
But the USDT wasn't a big red purple from the beginning. In fact, in the two years after it was born, it was silent.
直到2017年，数字货币市场突然爆发，并引发了全球范围内的监管收紧。此后，币币交易渐成交易所行业主流，USDT开始崭露头角。
Until 2017, digital money markets erupted, triggering global regulatory tightening. After that, currency transactions became the mainstream of the exchange sector, and the USDT began to emerge.
作为稳定币，它既是投资者入市的“筹码”，也是币价暴跌时少有的避险工具之一。
As a stabilizing currency, it is both a “dealer” for investors to enter the market and one of the few hedge tools available when currency prices collapses.
然而，USDT自诞生之日起，便一直饱受质疑。最大的质疑点，来自其发行机制。
However, the USDT has been questioned since its birth. The biggest challenge is from its distribution mechanism.
Tether公司承诺，为USDT设立了准备金账户，所有的USDT都有等量的美元法币作为担保。因此，从理论上来说，USDT可以被视作是数字化的美元。
Tether promised to set up a reserve account for USDT, and all USDTs are guaranteed in the equivalent amount of United States dollar French. Thus, in theory, USDT can be regarded as a digitized dollar.
然而，Tether毕竟不是美联储。USDT诞生5年来，Tether增发80余次，如今市值已超过27亿美元。但除了Tether公司自己，没人知道USDT是否存在超发。
After all, however, Tether is not a Fed. Five years after the creation of the USDT, Tether has increased by more than 80 times, and now has a market value of more than $2.7 billion. But no one knows if the USDT has any excess hair except for Tether itself.
今年年初，Medium网友“Bitfinex’ed”曝光了一份Tether与Bitfinex高管的对话录音。在录音中，双方提到，Tether不仅多次超发USDT，还在有裙带利益关系的交易所Bitfinex上购买比特币，以推高后者价格。
Early this year, Medium entourage “Bitfinex” exposed a recording of Tether’s conversation with Bitfinex executives. In the recording, both parties mentioned that Tether had not only over-released the USDT several times, but also purchased bitfinex on a nepotist exchange, Bitfinex, in order to raise the price of the latter.
不受监管的USDT，成了Tether公司的印钞机。而USDT崩塌的风险，则需要币圈全体投资者承担。
Unregulated USDT becomes a banknote printing machine for Tether. The risk of a collapse of the USDT will be borne by all investors in the currency ring.
USDT被外界广泛质疑超发，最重要的原因，是大家都觉得，Tether如果老老实实地不超发，根本不赚钱。
The most important reason that the USDT has been widely questioned by the outside world is that everyone feels that Tether has no money if he does not go too far.
事实上，稳定币的盈利空间，确实十分有限。
In fact, the profit margin to stabilize the currency is very limited.
2018年年初，国内某区块链公司决定进军稳定币市场。他们做了个市场调研，结果显示，如果模仿USDT标榜的等额法币担保发行模式，发行方根本没有任何盈利空间。
At the beginning of 2018, a segment of the country’s chain of companies decided to move into the stable currency market. They did a market study, which showed that there was no room for profit for the issuer to follow the French equivalent guaranteed distribution model of the USDT label.
“这也是为什么USDT一直被怀疑超发的原因。”该稳定币项目负责人梁明说。
“This is why the USDT has been suspected of excesses.” Leung Ming, the head of the stabilization project, said.
“稳定币能盈利的点不多，只有少量的利息与兑付手续费。”他总结，“所以我们的稳定币计划，更多是为了公司生态。而稳定币项目本身，只能按照非盈利的模式去做。”
“Stabilizing the currency is not much profitable, with only a small amount of interest and payment charges.” He concluded, “So our stabilization plan is more for the company’s ecology. The stabilization project itself can only be done on a non-profit basis.”
02?历史
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}History
实际上，USDT并不是历史上第一个稳定币，尽管特殊的机缘，让它成为了最成功的一个。
In fact, the USDT was not the first currency to stabilize in history, despite special opportunities, making it one of the most successful.
按照抵押担保的形式不同，稳定币可分为三大类，即法币担保、数字资产担保、算法央行制的稳定币。
Depending on the form of the collateral, the stable currency may be divided into three main categories, namely, French currency guarantees, digital asset guarantees, and a stable currency in the algorithmic central bank system.
USDT属于第一类。但锚定机制，使这类稳定币注定无法通过去中心化的机制建立信任。
The USDT is in the first category. But the anchoring mechanisms make it impossible for such a stable currency to build trust through decentralised mechanisms.
无论是公开银行账户，引入第三方审计，还是接受国家监管，基于法币资产抵押的稳定币，都需要引入一个新的中心，以强化信任。
Whether public bank accounts, the introduction of third-party audits or State regulation, stable currencies based on asset collateral in French currency, require the introduction of a new centre to enhance trust.
这与区块链的去中心化思想，似乎已经背道而驰。
This seems to run counter to the decentralised idea of the block chain.
第二类稳定币由此诞生。它们以数字资产作为抵押物，多借助智能合约自动发行。所有的发行记录，都可以在区块链上被查证。
The second type of stable currency is created. They are issued automatically with digital assets as collateral, mostly by means of smart contracts. All distribution records can be checked on the block chain.
这其中最具代表性的币种，是基于以太坊平台的MakerDAO, 与基于比特股平台的bitCNY。
The most representative of these currencies is the MakerDAO based on the Taiwan platform, and the BitCNY based on the Bits.
数字货币老玩家罗鹏程，在2017年9月后，选择的入场工具便是bitCNY。
The old digital currency player, the Lupin Process, was selected as BitCNY after September 2017.
他对USDT的发行机制一直心存芥蒂。在他眼中，基于数字资产抵押的bitCNY，至少在发行上更加公开透明。
He's always had a lot to do with the USDT distribution mechanism. In his eyes, BitCNY, based on digital asset mortgages, is at least more open and transparent on distribution.
然而，为了保证币值稳定，基于数字资产抵押的稳定币，都需要超额抵押数字资产。
However, in order to ensure the stability of the value of the currency, stable currencies based on digital asset collateral require over-collateralized digital assets.
以bitCNY为例，使用者必须抵押2倍于市价的BTS。而基于以太坊的MakerDAO，也需要抵押1.5倍于市价的ETH。
In the case of bitCNY, users have to mortgage BTS twice the market price. On the basis of MakerDAO in Taiku, they also need to mortgage ETH 1.5 times the market price.
而一旦BTS网络发生崩溃，或是币价暴跌，bitCNY也会有大几率同步崩塌。
In the event of a BTS network collapse, or currency prices collapse, BitCNY will have a great chance of collapsing at the same time.
因为基于资产抵押的稳定币也存在缺陷，一些稳定币从业者们，决定求助于技术本身。
Due to deficiencies in stable currency based on asset collateral, some stable currency operators have decided to turn to technology itself.
以Basecoin、Carbon为代表的第三类稳定币，通过算法调节市场中稳定币的供求关系，从而维持币价稳定。它们甚至可以凭空创造，不需要抵押任何资产。
The third category of stable currencies, represented by Basecoin and Carbon, regulates the supply and demand of the currency in the market through algorithms, thus maintaining currency stability. They can even be created empty and do not need to encumber any assets.
这一模式借鉴了现实中的中央银行模式，因此也被称作算法央行制。中央银行可以通过调节利率、准备金率及外汇储备，算法央行币也可以调节发行数量，出售、回购股权债券等方式，维持币价的整体稳定。
This model draws on a realistic model of central banks, which are called the algorithmic central bank system. Central banks can maintain the overall stability of currency prices by regulating interest rates, reserve rates, and foreign exchange reserves, as well as by regulating the volume of issuance, sale, repurchase of equity bonds, etc.
在理论上来说，算法央行制的稳定币，可能最契合区块链思想。然而，它们要想长久稳定运行，也并不容易。
Theoretically, the stable currency of arithmetic central banks is probably the most relevant to the idea of a chain of blocks. However, it is not easy for them to function in a stable and lasting manner.
只借助一种算法，就在复杂多变的市场中，维持币价的长期稳定，这需要稳定币发行方对经济学、金融学及算法理论有极其深刻的理解。
By merely one algorithm, the long-term stability of currency prices in a complex and volatile market requires the stabilization of the extremely deep understanding of economics, financial science and algorithmic theory among the issuers.
“算法央行的模式过于超前，基本只能停留在纸面上。”罗鹏程说，“这种稳定币一旦发生挤兑，或遭遇信任危机，便会因为无抵押资产，陷入恶性循环，最终走向崩盘。”
“Arithmetic central banks are too advanced in their model to remain essentially on paper.” The Rhodesian says that “such stable currencies, once run-off or a crisis of trust, are caught in a vicious circle with no collateral assets and eventually fall into disarray.”
真正完美的稳定币，至今仍未出现。
A truly perfect currency of stability has yet to emerge.
03?未来
03? Future >
今年9月10日，美国纽约金融服务局（NYDFS）批准了稳定币GUSD与PAX的发行，稳定币第一次被纳入监管框架。
On September 10th of this year, the NYDFS of the United States approved the issuance of a stable currency, GUSD and PAX, which for the first time was included in the regulatory framework.
“每一枚GUSD都由美元法币担保，这使其兼具法币的稳定性与数字货币的跨国流动性。”福布斯如此评价。
“Each GUSD is guaranteed in United States dollars in French, which brings with it stability in French and cross-border liquidity in digital currencies.” Forbes so evaluates.
也许GUSD的发行方Gemini公司自己都没有想到，中国关于GUSD的讨论，比美国尤甚。
Perhaps the issuer of GUSD, Gemini, did not think of itself that the discussion of GUSD in China was more intense than in the United States.
9月11日，一篇题为《纽约金融局批准GUSD发行，或是世界级金融灾难的开始》的文章迅速传播，并引发了国人对于数字美元的恐慌。
On 11 September, an article entitled " Approval of the GUSD launch by the New York Financial Service, or the beginning of a world-class financial disaster " spread rapidly and triggered a national panic over the digital dollar.
GUSD的发行、流通、交易，完全建立在美国政府的监管框架下。与此同时，GUSD又基于以太坊的ERC20协议，可以在全球范围内自由流动。
GUSD’s distribution, circulation, and trading are based entirely on the US government’s regulatory framework. At the same time, GUSD is based on Ether’s ERC20 agreement, which allows global freedom of movement.
如果说世界各国的金融管制政策，是传统法币美元最后的壁垒，现在人们担心的是，在“数字美元”面前，这最后一道壁垒也将消失。
If financial regulation policies around the world are the last barrier to the traditional French dollar, it is now feared that this last barrier will disappear in the face of the “digital dollar”.
美国可以通过发行“数字美元”的方式，凭借美元的强势地位，更加方便快捷地向全球各国收取铸币税。
By issuing a “digital dollar”, the United States, by virtue of its strong position in the United States dollar, can more easily and quickly collect a casting tax from countries around the globe.
这也让很多人将GUSD视作下一代稳定币——它接受政府监管，并将以此扩展到区块链以外的世界。
It also allows many to view GUSD as a next-generation stabilizing currency — a currency that is subject to government regulation and that will extend beyond the chain of blocks to the world.
币策首席分析师肖磊，称GUSD的问世，是美国对新兴国家发起的“降维打击”：
Xiao Xiao, chief analyst of the currency policy, called the emergence of GUSD a “redundant blow” launched by the United States against emerging countries:
“美国再一次掌握了一个比较杀手级的武器——用美元的稳定币，可以进一步将美元经济渗透到全球各个角落。”
“The United States once again possesses a more killer-class weapon — a stable currency of the United States dollar that can further penetrate the United States dollar economy to every corner of the globe.”
越是落后的地区，法币的稳定性越差，传统金融交易的成本也越高。这些市场，很可能会被“数字美元”收割。
The less stable the French is, the more expensive the traditional financial transactions are. These markets are likely to be harvested by “digital dollars”.
而稳定币，也有机会成为颠覆传统国际贸易结算体系的新工具。
By stabilizing the currency, there is also an opportunity to become a new instrument to destabilize the traditional international trade settlement system.
从事人民币稳定币业务的梁明表示，他所在的公司，也在近期盯上了这块前景广阔的市场。
Liang Ming, who is engaged in the renminbi stabilization business, has also been following this promising market in the near future.
他表示，一些非洲的外贸企业表示，在当地存款，要交8%的手续费，汇款手续费更是高达10%。因此，在很多领域，稳定币都大有用武之地。
He indicated that some African foreign trade enterprises had indicated that they had to pay 8 per cent of local deposits and up to 10 per cent of remittances. Thus, in many areas, there was much to be done to stabilize the currency.
在梁明看来，USDT的强势，以及近日GUSD消息的火爆，都来自于美元的强势地位——“毕竟，在币圈，美元太好用了。”
In Liang Ming's view, the strength of the USDT and the recent explosion of the GUSD news came from the strong position of the dollar — “after all, the dollar works so well in the currency circle”.
但人民币并非没有机会。
but the renminbi is not without opportunity.
“我们接触到很多在非洲做生意的中国外贸公司，他们更希望以人民币作为跨境结算工具，减少汇率波动风险。”梁明说，“这也是推动人民币国际化的一次绝佳机会。”
“We have reached out to many Chinese foreign trade companies doing business in Africa, who prefer to use the renminbi as a cross-border clearing tool to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.” Liang said, “It is also an excellent opportunity to promote the internationalization of the renminbi.”
从入市筹码、避险工具，到可能的国际贸易新工具，稳定币正在掀起一场新的革命。
A new revolution is taking place in the currency of stability, from market access, risk avoidance tools and, possibly, new instruments of international trade.
但它们的前方依然阻力重重。从产品、技术、政策到运营推广，每一个环节，都可能成为陷阱，杀死一种新兴的稳定币。
But there is still a lot of resistance ahead of them. From products, technology, policies, to operations, every link can become a trap and kill a new and stable currency.
未来道阻且长，赢家只会是少数人。
The future is blocked and long, and the winner is only a few.
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