2020年11月21日，比特币价格突破18960美元，直逼历史最高价格19763美元。
On 21 November 2020, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $189,60, driving it to an all-time high of 19763.
数据显示，自5月13日比特币减半后的六个月内，灰度增持的比特币数量基本等于其同期开采量。11月20日，灰度比特币信托再次增持10550枚BTC，总持仓量已达526765枚BTC......
According to the data, within six months of the halving of Bitcoin on May 13, the amount of bitcoin held by the grey scale was roughly equal to the amount mined during the same period. On November 20, the Greycoin Trust held another 10,550 BTC units, with a total stock of 526765 BTCs.
都说2017年是散户的牛市，而2020年是机构的牛市，而灰度则被认为是这波牛市最大的发动机。
It is said that 2017 was the city of the scattered cattle, while 2020 was the city of the institution's cattle, and that Greyscale was considered to be the largest engine in the city.
灰度这个名字，相信投资者一定都不陌生，但围绕灰度还有很多的问题萦绕在大家的心头：为什么灰度一直增持BTC？机构如何通过灰度的GBTC套利？灰度会不会砸盘？
The name Greyscale, which I believe is not new to investors, has a lot to do with the greyness: Why does the greyness keep increasing BTC? How does the agency pass the greyscale GBTC?
接下来我们要用十个问题来揭秘灰度。
Next, we're going to use 10 questions to reveal the greyscale.
一、灰度（Grayscale）是什么？
I. What is Grayscale?
灰度投资公司的雏形是私募股权交易平台SecondMarket公司旗下的一支比特币投资基金。2014年，SecondMarket公司创始人Barry Silbert将这支比特币投资基金从原公司中脱离出来，成立了灰度投资公司（Grayscale Investments）。
In 2014, Barry Silbert, the founder of Secondmarket, separated the Bitcoin investment fund from its original company and set up GrayCale Investments.
2015年，灰度投资公司被归并到新成立的数字货币集团（Digital Currency Group，简称DCG）旗下。DCG旗下除了灰度投资公司外，还有加密货币场外交易经纪商Genesis、区块链媒体平台CoinDesk两家子公司，以及投资的150多个其他区块链公司/项目。
In 2015, the Greyscale Investment Corporation was integrated into the newly established Digital Corporation Group (DCG). In addition to the Greyscale Investment Corporation, the DCG flag includes two subsidiaries, Genesis, the block chain media platform CoinDesk, and more than 150 other block chain companies/projects invested.
除了比特币信托基金，灰度投资公司还推出了ETH, BCH, ETC, LTC, XRP等加密货币的信托基金，以及包含主流币种的复合型加密货币信托基金（Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund）。
In addition to the Bitcoin Trust Fund, Greyscale has launched trust funds for encrypted currencies such as ETH, BCH, ETC, LTC, XRP, and the Complex Encrypted Currency Trust Fund (Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund), which includes mainstream currencies.
灰度产品成立时间轴 来源：《Grayscale Investor Deck October 2020》
Source: Grayscale Investor Deck October 2020
二、灰度比特币信托（GBTC）是什么？
II. What is the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)?
灰度比特币信托（GBTC）是灰度旗下规模最大的加密数字资产信托产品，其规模占据灰度总体资产管理规模的90%以上。
The Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is the largest encrypted digital asset trust under the Greyscale flag, accounting for more than 90 per cent of the total size of the Greyscale asset management.
GBTC实质是一支私募信托基金，于2013年进行首次私募，并不定期开放后续的一级市场认购。最初只有合格投资者可以参与，最低认购额为5万美金。2015年3月，GBTC在OTCQX公开交易，正式宣告GBTC私募信托基金的份额登录二级市场，大众投资人均可参与其中。
Initially, only eligible investors were allowed to participate, with a minimum subscription of $50,000. In March 2015, the GBTC made a public deal at OTCQX, formally declaring that the shares of the GBTC Private Trust Fund were recorded in the secondary market, with the participation of public investors.
投资GBTC出资方式分为现金出资和实物出资（比特币），买入GBTC相当于买入灰度持仓的比特币对应份额。由于GBTC于2014年被SEC查处后，灰度以SEC不会审核通过为由，停掉了GBTC的赎回机制。因此，两种出资方式的投资者认购的GBTC份额均无法赎回。
The GBTC is financed in cash and in kind (bitcoin), and the purchase of the GBTC is equivalent to the share of the GBTC equivalent to the share of the GBTC in the purchase of the grey. Since the GBTC was checked by the SEC in 2014, the GBTC is suspended on the grounds that it would not be approved.
此外，灰度还会收取2%的托管费，也是其主要的盈利方式。收取方式为从持仓的比特币数量中扣除，即币本位方式收取管理费。数据统计显示，按照其当前资产管理规模，灰度每年收取的托管费约为7000枚比特币。
In addition, the Greyscale is charged a 2% hosting fee, which is also the principal method of profitability. It is collected by deducting the amount of bitcoins held from the amount of bitcoins, i.e. the local currency. The statistics show that the Greyscale collects approximately 7,000 bitcoins per year, depending on the size of its current asset management.
投资者参与GBTC份额认购的模式
Modalities for investor participation in GBTC share subscriptions
灰度公布的最新资产管理规模
Updated size of asset management as disclosed in greyscale
三、为什么灰度会一直增持比特币？
iii. Why does the greyscale keep increasing bitcoin?
根据灰度官方公布的最新数据显示，截至11月20日，除去已丢失的比特币，灰度的比特币信托的总持仓量接近BTC流通量的3.4%，达526765枚，继续推动BTC朝着历史最高价格迈进。
According to the most recent official data published by Greyscale, as of 20 November, the total holdings of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust, excluding lost bitcoins, were close to 3.4 per cent of the circulation of BTC, amounted to 526765 units, continuing to push BTC towards historical maximum prices.
其实GBTC不对比特币的投资“择时”，而旨在跟踪其价格本身的走势并服务其投资人。因此，其比特币的投资投资策略是“被动”的，为什么呢？
In fact, the GBTC does not “take the time” for the investment of the currency, but rather aims to track its price itself and to serve its investors. Thus, its investment strategy for the bitcoin is “passive”, why?
增持BTC这个需求来源，是套利的机构大资金不断入场，买光GBTC的份额后促使灰度增持。但需求的最终根源，还是来自二级市场。极高的溢价吸引了很多机构进行套利活动，这种情况往往在牛市的时候更为明显。所以，当灰度不断增持比特币的时候，意味着套利机构对GBTC溢价的乐观预期。 灰度比特币信托无法赎回的机制使其管理的持仓量将越来越大，2%的管理费用让灰度赚的盆满钵满。
But the ultimate source of demand is the secondary market. The high premium attracts many institutions for arbitrage, which is often more evident in the cattle market.
四、为什么要买GBTC，而不是直接买比特币?
IV. Why buy GBTC instead of buying Bitcoin?
GBTC的目的，是给投资人降低资产的管理成本。直接在美股市场购买GBTC，投资人能够以简化、安全的方式购买和持有比特币，无学习门槛。在享有比特币价格高波动性带来的投资机会的同时，无需承担自行交易比特币可能存在的若干风险：
The purpose of GBTC is to reduce the management costs of assets to investors. By buying GBTC directly in the United States stock market, investors are able to buy and hold bitcoins in a simplified and secure manner, without learning thresholds.
在数字货币交易平台开户有信息泄露的风险：每天你可能会收到各大交易平台假客服打来的骚扰电话，甚至你的个人隐私遭到窃取或被违规使用。 在数字货币交易平台买卖比特币有价格操纵、提币限制、交易所“跑路”等风险：不透明是中心化平台的通病。 存储比特币有钱包私钥丢失、被盗等风险。
There is a risk of leaking information about opening accounts on digital money trading platforms: every day you may receive harassment calls from various major trading platforms’ fake customers’ uniforms, even if your personal privacy is stolen or used in an irregular manner. Buying and selling bitcoins on digital money trading platforms carries the risk of price manipulation, currency withdrawal restrictions, and exchange “runway”: non-transparent is the problem of centralizing platforms.
并且，GTBC的运作方式类似于股票和债券，可以为投资者提供纳税便利，以及根据遗产法很容易转让给受益人。
Moreover, GTBC operates in a manner similar to equities and bonds, which provides tax facilities for investors and easy transfer to beneficiaries under inheritance laws.
五、谁在通过灰度购买比特币？
V. Who's buying bitcoin by greyscale?
数据显示，购买GBTC的80%是机构投资者，且截至2020年11月，共有23家公司（合计29个机构级账户）持有灰度比特币信托份额。加密资产借贷公司BlockFi是灰度比特币信托的最大持仓者，持有约2423.55万份信托份额；持仓第二的是三箭资本，是目前最为活跃的加密货币对冲基金之一。
According to the data, 80% of purchases of GBTC are institutional investors and, as of November 2020, 23 companies (total of 29 institutional-level accounts) hold a share of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust. The crypto-asset lending company BlockFi is the largest warehousekeeper in the Greytime Bitcoin Trust, holding approximately 24,235.5 million shares of the Trust; the second largest is stock capital, which is one of the most active encoded currency hedge funds at present.
值得注意的是，隐藏在这份名单的机构里有著名的私人财富管理机构或家族办公室的账户，其中包括了著名的罗斯柴尔德家族旗下的投资公司（Rothschild Investment Corp）。
It is worth noting that institutions hidden on this list have accounts of well-known private wealth management agencies or family offices, including the well-known Rothschild Investment Corp.
按类型划分的灰度投资者结构 来源：《Grayscale Digital Asset Investment Report Q3 2020》
Source: Grayscale Investor Structure by Type: Grayscale Digital Asset Investment Report Q3 2020
截止11月9日共有23家机构投资者公开持仓份额，来源：Fintel 制图：Chain Hill Capital
As of 9 November, 23 institutional investors had publicly held their share. Source: Fintel Mapping: Chain Hill Capital
六、为什么GBTC相对BTC价格长期具有较高的溢价？
VI. Why does GBTC have a long-term high premium against BTC prices?
自从GBTC可以在二级市场交易以来，其份额价格相对于BTC本身长期存在溢价。当前的GBTC最新净值（NAV）为17.46美元，同期每份额对应的比特币的价格约为21.24美元，溢价率为21.56%。
The current GBTC net latest value (NAV) is $17.46, with a price of approximately $21.24 per share and a premium of 21.56 per cent for the same period.
溢价产生于每份GBTC的市场流通价值>内含比特币的价值，原因有：
The premium arises from the market circulation value of > per GBTC; it contains the value of bitcoins for the following reasons:
弹性小，无替代品。美股市场缺少比特币和加密资产的投资工具，只要SEC一直不批准比特币ETF，GBTC基本没有竞争对手。 GBTC定期发售、不可赎回、6个月的锁定期不能转售的机制，以及市场情绪的持续乐观，造成了较高的风险溢价。
The market lacks investment instruments in bitcoin and encrypted assets, as long as SEC has consistently failed to approve bitcoin ETF, and the GBTC has virtually no competitors. The GBTC’s mechanisms of regular sales, indemnification, six-month locks, and continued optimism about market sentiment have created higher risk premiums.
两方面因素导致GBTC供不应求 ，造成GBTC相对比特币的价格长期存在溢价。
Both factors contributed to the oversupply of the GBTC and to the persistence of a premium on the price of the GBTC relative to Bitcoin.
数据显示：GBTC相较于BTC长期存在溢价
Data show that GBTC has a long-standing premium compared to BTC
七、如何通过GBTC溢价套利？
VII. How can the GBTC premium arbitrage be used?
过去5年，GBTC平均溢价幅度为38%，最高的时候达到132%，套利空间十分可观。
In the past five years, the average GBTC premium has been 38 per cent, with a peak of 132 per cent, with a significant arbitrage.
当前常见的GBTC套利模式有四种，现金借贷套利、实物借贷套利、份额借贷套利和锁定溢价套利：
There are currently four common arbitrage models for GBTC: cash loan arbitrage, in-kind loan arbitrage, share arbitrage and lock-in premium arbitrage:
现金借贷套利。投资者用现金或比特币买入GBTC份额，在6个月的锁仓期过后，到二级市场进行抛售。这种方式的风险受比特币价格下跌影响较大，只有当GBTC价格高于初始成本，才有可能盈利。 实物借贷套利。机构投资者在借贷平台借入比特币，交给灰度置换一级市场份额。6个月锁仓期过后，择时抛售，同时买入比特币还给借贷平台。此时GBTC卖出的溢价收益扣除利息和其他费用是套利利润。 GBTC份额借贷套利。投资者直接借入GBTC份额，在二级市场择时卖出。同时用现金或比特币在灰度换成GBTC份额，锁仓期过后偿还借来的GBTC份额。这里涉及到两个费用，一是GBTC的借贷成本，第二个费用是2%的托管费。如果GBTC溢价幅度超过两种费用之和，才有可能盈利。 锁定溢价套利。投资者用现金或者比特币在灰度换成GBTC，同时在GBTC的市价高于资产净值的位置，在场外借入GBTC并做空。最终无论GBTC上涨还是下跌，盈利都是固定的。最终溢价减去借贷成本与托管费的部分即为盈利空间。
At the end of the six-month lockdown period, the investor buys a share of the GBTC in cash or bitcoin and sells it in the secondary market after a six-month lock-up period. The risk of this approach is much higher than the price of the bitcoin, which is likely to be profitable only if the price of the bitcoin is higher than the initial cost.
总结四种套利方式，第一种情况比较依赖比特币现价，比特币价格越高，收益越高。第二、第三种策略更依赖GBTC溢价程度，溢价越高，实现套利的人就越多，此时对比特币的需求就越高。第四种情况非常适合对冲基金，操作相对复杂，但可以提前锁定溢价收益，承担的市场风险较小。
To summarize the four arbitrage approaches, the first is more dependent on the current bitcoin, the higher the bitcoin price, the higher the return. Second, the third strategy is more dependent on the GBTC premium, and the higher the premium, the more the arbitrator, the higher the demand for the arbitrage.
八、为什么比特币ETF无法获批，GBTC却能存在？
VIII. Why can the Bitcoin ETF not be approved and the GBTC exist?
GBTC的存在与美国监管环境密不可分，由于SEC认为比特币价格可以被操控，因而比特币ETF的申请一直都无法通过批准，但为什么GBTC会通过批准呢？原因如下：
The existence of the GBTC is inextricably linked to the regulatory environment in the United States, and since the SEC believes that the price of the bitcoin can be controlled, the application of the Bitcoin ETF has never been approved, but why would the GBTC be approved? For the following reasons:
1、美国允许信托投向比特币、以太坊等加密资产，并允许此类信托份额登陆场外交易市场。
1. The United States allows trusts to be invested in encrypted assets such as Bitcoin, Etheria, etc., and allows such trusts to land on off-site trading markets.
2、美国允许数字货币交易平台合规运行，并接受比特币的报价（GBTC当前使用的报价方包括Coinbase Pro、LMAX Digital、itBit、Kraken和Bitstamp）。
The United States allows the digital currency trading platform to operate in compliance and accepts the Bitcoin offer (the parties currently used by the GBTC include Coinbase Pro, LMAX Digital, itBit, Kraken and Bitstamp).
3、美国允许数字货币托管机构合规运行，GBTC的托管机构Coinbase Custody是符合《纽约银行法》的受托人，也是符合美国《投资顾问法》条款所述目的的合格的托管方。
3. In the United States, the digital currency custodian agency is allowed to operate in compliance, and the trust of the GBTC, Coinbasecustody, is a trustee in compliance with the New York Banking Act and a qualified trustee for the purposes set out in the provisions of the United States Investment Advisory Act.
4、许多律所、审计师事务所愿意为GBTC提供服务。
4. Many firms and auditors are willing to provide services to GBTC.
九、灰度会不会砸盘？
IX. Will the greyscale hit the plate?
首先，GBTC长期的正向溢价形成了一二级市场间套利空间，只要机构对GBTC的风险溢价保持乐观预期，灰度所管理的持仓量将越来越大。加之GBTC具有有“不可赎回”的机制，直接消除了比特币的卖方流动性危机，完全不给GBTC投资者抛售砸盘的机会。
First, the GBTC’s long-term positive premium creates a secondary market arbitrage, and as long as the agency remains optimistic about the risk premium for GBTC, it will manage an ever-increasing amount of storage. Together with the GBTC’s “irreparable” mechanism, the GBTC’s liquidity crisis in bitcoin is directly eliminated, and the opportunity for GBTC investors to sell the plate is completely missed.
其次，以币本位结算的管理费使得投资人持有的每一份GBTC份额对应的比特币数量将不断减少。因此，比特币也将缓慢地转移到灰度手里，长期看灰度将成为市场上最大的比特币持有者之一。
Second, the management fee for currency-denominated settlements will keep the amount of bitcoins corresponding to each share of GBTC held by investors decreasing. As a result, bitcoins will be slowly transferred to greyscales, which will become one of the largest Bitcoins holders in the market in the long run.
由此可见，灰度是实际掌控比特币买卖”生杀大权“的。
As a result, the Greyscale actually controls the Bitcoin sale of "the power of life and death".
如果比特币价格持续攀升，机构的套利成本越来越高，GBTC的高溢价将会一直存在，进而导致机构套利所产生的比特币需求量与灰度套现的比特币数量形成短期博弈；灰度也可以自行降低溢价来平衡其所影响的比特币供需关系和稳定市场情绪。
If the price of bitcoin continues to rise and the agency’s arbitrage costs increase, the arbitrage premium of GBTC will remain high, leading to short-term games between the demand for bitcoins and the amount of bitcoins available from the agency’s arbitrage; it will also allow itself to reduce the premium to balance the supply and demand of bitcoins and stable market sentiment it affects.
如果熊市来临，灰度可以出钱维持溢价，继续吸引机构套利，并利用6个月的GBTC锁定期进行抛售；或者直接将比特币价格砸至最低，继续等待新一轮牛市。
If the bear market arrives, the Greyscale can pay to maintain the premium, continue to attract institutional arbitrage and regularly sell it using a six-month GBT lock; or directly tow the price of bitcoin to the lowest and continue to wait for a new round of cattle.
目前来说，牛市下只要机构对GBTC的溢价保持乐观预期，灰度就没有任何动力去砸盘。
For the time being, as long as agencies maintain optimistic expectations of the GBTC premium, there is no incentive for Greyscale to hit the plate.
十、如何评价“灰度牛”？
X. How can the Greyscale Cow be evaluated?
基于灰度比特币信托无法赎回的机制、现金以及实物两种出资的形式，以及巧妙地将发行与流通进行跨市场分离（加密货币市场与美股市场），美股二级市场的GBTC份额存在高溢价为机构跨市场套利提供了很大的空间，套利资金参与其中顺利地实现“抛压（GBTC）转移至美股、资金带回币圈“的理想闭环。
Based on the indemnifying mechanism of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust, the form of cash and in-kind funding, and the clever separation of issuance and circulation across markets (encrypted currency and United States stock markets), the existence of a high premium on the GBTC share of the United States second-tier market provides much room for institutional cross-market arbitrage, in which arbitrage is successfully associated with the successful transfer of “GBTC” to the United States stock and money to the currency ring.
短期内若没有全球性因素抹平GBTC溢价，灰度不出意外将继续增持比特币。这使得灰度比特币信托正在成为市场上一股“只买不卖”的多头力量，短期内比特币也将保持上涨格局。
Without global elements to smooth out the GBTC premium in the short term, the greyscale will continue to increase by bitcoin. This makes the Greycoin Trust a “buy-no-sale” multi-purpose force in the market, and the short-term Nebitcoin will remain on the rise.
参考资料：
References:
《深度 | 探秘灰度GBTC：比特币市场明牌“巨鲸”》，来源：国盛区块链研究院。
“Deepness The Enquiry GBTC: The Big Whale” in Bitcoin Market, Source: National Academy of Block Chains.
《深度 | 解构灰度比特币信托》，来源：仟峰资本。
Deepness Decomposition Bitcoin Trust, Source: Peak Capital.
《深度：揭秘灰度一直买买买的真相》，来源：区块印象。
Deepness: Uncovering the truth about buying and buying. Source: block impressions.
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