一）六百点
(i) 600 o'clock.
中国股市的合理估值，是600点。
The reasonable valuation of the stock market in China is 600 points.
且慢，且慢，且慢。
Wait, wait, wait.
大炮一喷，我知道一群人要疯了。得罪利益，比得罪灵魂更严重。
When the cannons blow, I know that a group of people are going crazy. It's worse than sin against the soul.
按照以往的经验，下面肯定一批人要留言：
In the light of past experience, the following group of people would like to leave a message:
- “水平太差了”
- “什么都不懂，狗屁不懂嘛”。
- “买了二套房子，也敢评论股市”
- “茅台是支好股票”。
好了，我只要问你一句话：
All right, I just need to ask you one thing:
明天把股市关掉。 只许持有，不许交易，股票还值多少点。
你们那么多口口声声说“价值投资”的家伙。
You guys say "value investment" so much.
如1950年般关闭“证券交易所”。
As in 1950, the Stock Exchange was closed.
所有股份，只许持有，每年寄一次红利。
All shares, held only, are allowed to send dividends once a year.
你摸着良心说，为了手里每年分红0.1元的股票，宁愿支付多少价格？
How much do you think you'd pay for your share of the bonus of 0.1 dollars a year?
如果你的发小“狗蛋”。合伙做生意。 10000股，每年“分红”给你1000元。 这盘生意，你觉得还价值多少钱。
人啊，时刻生活在面具伪装之中。
Man, you live in a mask all the time.
说出来的话，你骗我，他骗你，没有半句真心。
You lied to me. He lied to you. He didn't mean it.
遇到股市中人，币圈中人，个个“价值投资”，区块链看好。
When you meet someone in the stock market, someone in the currency circle, a “value investment” and a block chain.
可是你真问他，“不许交易，只吃分红”，一群人吓得逃比兔子还快。
But you asked him, "No deal, no cut, no cut." A bunch of people run faster than rabbits.
中国的股市历史上，从来不存在“价值投资”。
There has never been a “value investment” in China's stock market history.
目前市场上的站台大V，周金涛，任泽平，美林时钟之类的，全部都是骗子。
The current market is full of liars such as Big V, Chu Jintao, Ren Zeping, Merrillian clocks and so on.
因为“价值投资”，A股就需要市红率25%，估值就是600点。
Because of the “value investment”, shares A require a market red rate of 25 per cent and a valuation of 600 points.
你凡是600点之上，买来卖去，反复交易，全部都是投机。
Anything you buy or sell at 600, you trade repeatedly, it's all speculation.
100%的人口，都是冲着“博差价”去的。
100 per cent of the population went for the “beautiful price”.
吃股利的，一个也没有，一个也没有。
Eating dividends, no one, no one.
历史上这么多年。早在2000年，“楼市蕴含巨大泡沫，房价高估”“股市低估，全仓抄底”。
So many years in history. As early as 2000, "The building city had huge bubbles, the house price was overestimated," "The stock market was undervalued, the stock market was undercut."
类似言论，不绝于耳。
A similar statement cannot be ignored.
我很有底气地和你说一声，“房子我敢持有到天荒地老。满五满十多军大把”。 全天下，有哪一只股票，哪一个基金经理，敢说“天荒地老”。 哪只股票，你敢交易所关闭。 到底谁有泡沫，谁被高估四倍。我呸！
二）漫长的泡沫
(ii) Long foams
自A股面市以来，它就从未以PB=0.3，PE=5的“正常估值”进行交易。
Since the A stock market, it has never traded as a “normal valuation” of PB = 0.3, PE = 5.
在中国人有记忆以来，A股的估值，向来是PB=1.5，PE=25.
Since the Chinese remember, the value of Unit A has always been PB = 1.5, PE = 25.
这段记忆是如此之长，以至于大多数80后，从1990年开市以来，漫长的三十年，全部都浸润PE=25高估值时代。
This memory is so long that, after most 80 years, all of the long 30 years since the opening of the market in 1990 were immersed in the PE=25 high valuation era.
泡沫之悠久，甚至洗刷了一代人的记忆。让他们认为“25倍”天经地义。
The bubble is so long that it even erases the memory of a generation. Makes them think of it as a "25 times" by nature.
我想，中国股市，可能改写了一部分的经济学教科书。
I think the Chinese stock market may have rewritten some of the economics textbooks.
- 教科书：泡沫是短期的，泡沫终究会破灭
- 中国股市：泡沫可以长期，长到维持30年。
格雷厄姆的《证券投资分析》，讲的是PB=0.8的古典时代。在“价值合理”的年代，如何挑选好货。
Graham's Portfolio Analysis. It's about the classical PB = 0.8. How to pick good goods in a “reasonable value” age.
A股如果禁止交易，则A股的估值，就是600点。这点是无可置疑的。
If Unit A is prohibited from trading, then Unit A is valued at 600 points. That is beyond question.
问题是，A股是可以交易的，而A股的价格区间，长期维持在2500点，PE=25倍左右。
The problem is that shares A are tradable, while shares A maintain a price range of 2,500 over the long term, and PE = 25 times.
那么，这是什么游戏规则呢。
So, what are the rules of the game?
A股卖的，其实是博彩业价值
一个价值600元的东西，长期以2500~2600元的价格在交易着。而且维系了三十年。
A 600-dollar thing that's been traded for 2500 to 2600 for a long time. And it lasts for 30 years.
100%炒股票的人，都是博彩。互相算计，赚的是其他“玩家”的钱。
100% of the people who do stock are playing games. They're counting on each other. They're making money for other "players."
问题是，博彩业也是一门巨大的需求。
The problem is that the lottery industry is also a huge demand.
有需求，就有价值。
There's demand, there's value.
为什么一定要价值投资呢，为什么不能是纯消费呢。
Why do you have to invest in value? Why can't it be pure consumption ?
澳门的赌场，每年几千亿赌收。全世界公认，这也是一个“产业”。
The casino in Macau collects hundreds of billions of dollars a year. It's also recognized as an “industry” around the world.
有需求，就有产业。任何满足了人类心理“快乐”，都是产业。
There's demand, there's industry. Anything that meets human psychology's happiness, it's industry.
谁都知道，去赌场，总体上是亏钱的。
Everyone knows, going to the casino, it's a loss.
那又如何，你就当掏2000元，做了一个SPA。
So what, you pay $2,000 and you make a spa.
- SPA做完，你二手空空。可是神清气爽
- 赌场出来，你二手空空。神清气更爽
你把股市理解成“博彩业”，主要哄老年人开心。梭二把好似做“足浴”。比足浴效果还好。
You understand the stock market as a "gaming industry" that makes the elderly happy. Soyuz is like a "foot bath." It works better than a foot bath.
从“先进娱乐业”的角度来看，道理就说得通了。
It makes sense from the point of view of the “advanced entertainment industry”.
A股真实价值600点。 它能卖2400点，七成五的估值，来自于“博彩业”。
三）博彩业的游戏规则
iii) Rules of the Gambling Industry
#F2080我们开篇明义，格雷厄姆的《证券投资分析》是全错的。
#F2080 We begin by saying that Graham's Portfolio Investment Analysis is totally wrong.
因为那本书，适用于600点的区段。
Because of that book, it's for 600 points.
2400点，完全是博彩业游戏规则。格雷厄姆不适用。
It's 2400. It's a total game of gambling. Graham doesn't apply.
股票什么时候涨，什么时候跌。
When the stock rises and falls.
这时候的游戏规则，你不要看《证券投资分析》。
At this point in time, you don't look at Portfolio Investment Analysis.
你要看《博彩业游戏规则》
You want to see the Rules of the Gambling Industry?
市场智慧：资金面比基本面更重要。消息比年报更重要。
Market wisdom: Money is more important than basics. Information is more important than annual reports.
长期股民总结出来的经验教训，有道理的。
The lessons learned by long-term shareholders make sense.
博彩业的主要游戏规则，是“流量IP”。
狗屎不重要，废纸也不重要。买卖股票，99%的人不看基本面。
Shit doesn't matter. Waste paper doesn't matter. Stock deals, 99% don't look at basics.
“SB的共识也是共识”，既然大家都开始炒空气了，则最重要的指标是：
“The consensus of the SB is also the consensus”, and since we are all starting to blow up air, the most important indicators are:
韭菜的数量
Number of pickles
喜欢问“干货”一点的，2018年今时今日，中国股市面临的主要困难。有三点：
The main difficulties facing China’s stock market today, 2018, are as follows:
1）市场容量
1) Market capacity
2）币圈分流
2. Currency Circulation
3）严格监管
3. Strict supervision
四）A股的生命周期
(iv) Life cycle of Unit A
从历史上看，A股一直是往下走的。
Historically, Unit A has been moving down.
这句话的解释，不是说指数，而是说“老股”表现都不行。
This sentence explains not the index, but the fact that the “old stock” does not perform well.
A股的“扩容”，是有非常明显轨迹的。从300家，到800家，到1500家，到3000家。
Unit A's "enlargement" has a very visible trajectory. From 300 to 800, to 1,500, to 3,000.
如果我们拆散细看的话，则越老的股票，表现越差。
If we break up the details, the older the stocks, the worse the performance.
这是一个很浅显的道理。“庄股不复兴”。
That's a simple thing to say. "The stock doesn't come back."
600元的东西，非要卖你2400元。
600 dollars for something to sell you 2400 dollars.
你见过哪一个ICO上市之后，大股东还卖力吆喝的么。没有，都是逢高套现。
Have you seen which ICO is on the market, and the big stockholders work hard to drink? No, it's always high.
就是说，老股在任何一个点位，都一定是“慢慢下滑”的。
In other words, the old unit must be “slow down” at any of the points.
2600，2400，2200，2000………
而股市的拉升，主要靠“新股，次新股”。
The stock market, on the other hand, depends mainly on “new stock, sub-equity”.
你在2400点价位，上市一批新股。新股的总市值，是老股等量。
You're at 2400. You're on the market for a new stock. The total market value of the new stock is the same as the old stock.
然后你把新股拉高三倍，指数就到了4800点。
And then you triple the new stock, and the index's at 4800.
依次类推。
By analogy.
你可以看中国股市的历次牛市，都是如此手法。
You can see all the bulls in China's stock market, that's how it works.
如果你的老师没有教你，那他是混蛋。
If your teacher doesn't teach you, he's an asshole.
这个其实是一种，数学上的“作弊”方法。玩了三十年。 但问题是，随着A股的“总市值”越来越大。“再扩容”的难度也越来越大。
当“股市市值/GDP”比例越来越高。
When the “market value/GDP” ratio is increasing.
骗局会超过市场总容量。
The scam will exceed the total market capacity.
五）币圈的竞争
(v) Competition in currency circles
1）市场容量
1) Market capacity
2）币圈竞争
2. Currency competition
3）严格监管
3. Strict supervision
A股的第二个问题，是“币圈”的竞争。
The second issue in Unit A is the “currency circle” competition.
分红0.1元的股票，根本没有任何“内蕴价值”。见它的大头鬼。
There's no "inherent value" for a stake of 0.1 bucks. See its big head.
“玩”股票唯一的意义，仅仅是“博彩”投机。
The only meaning of “playing” stocks is mere “gaming” speculation.
问题是，赌场也不是你一家的。
The problem is, the casino isn't yours.
随着“人民群众的生活水准”不断提高，今天的环境，已经和90年代，很大不同。
As “the standard of living of the people” continues to rise, today's environment is very different from that of the 1990s.
90年代时，如果你想发财，除了“死工资”，利出一孔，你几乎没有任何出头的机会。
In the '90s, if you want to be rich, with the exception of a dead wage, you'll have little chance of coming forward.
哪怕这个赌场再不公平，至少是个梦想。
Even if this casino isn't fair, at least it's a dream.
但是在2018年，“博彩”的品种，已经大大丰富。
In 2018, however, the variety of gaming was greatly enriched.
- 在家打打麻将，棋牌室小钢珠，根本不算违纪。
- 迈出国门，中国周边遍地CASINO。新加坡，越南，缅甸，都是中国人身影。
- 如果你想算计，可以p2p.
- 小注金额，网上彩票。
- 外汇，黄金
- 德甲意甲，足球竞猜。
- 大体量的，还是房产走势。
这一切都是“博彩”。都分走了股票的流量。
It's all a game. It's all part of the stock flow.
最后最致命一击，来自“币圈”。
The last and most deadly hit came from the currency ring.
拉里佩奇说，Google最大的竞争者，不是Facebook，或者苹果。 而是NASA. 因为归根到底，是“人才”的争夺，而不是“产品”的争夺。 NASA很酷，很有宇宙价值。google最关心的“人”被抢走了。 同样道理，股市真正的对手，不是楼市。而是“币圈”。 你不要看资金面的争夺。 你要看“用户”的争夺。
股票的本质，也是空气币。
The nature of the stock is also air currency.
如果一支股票，售价300元，分红0.1元，那么它和“空气币”有什么区别？
What's the difference between a stock with a 300-dollar sale and a 0.1-dollar bonus?
那么多亏损上市的“独角兽”，还不都是空对空。大家乐呵呵博差价，割韭菜。
So many unicorns on the market, they're all empty-to-air. Everyone's happy with the price difference, cutting vegetables.
股票和“币圈”，才是同质同种，同生态位的竞争对手。
Equities and “currency circles” are homologues, ecological rivals.
币圈实在提供了一个完美的“赌场”。
The currency ring really provides a perfect casino.
- 没有涨跌幅限制。
- 没有杠杆限制，最多可以加20倍杠杆。
- 没有交易时间限制。
- 没有动机的限制。
既然大家进“赌场”，都是投机去的。没一个吃红利。全都是心术不正。
Now that everyone's in the Casino, it's all speculative. None of them eat dividends. They're all bad in mind.
那么“币圈”的大涨大跌，显然刺激多了。
So the “currency circle” booms and falls, and it's obviously much more exciting.
股票：期货：币圈 大麻：可卡因：海洛因
在币圈，一个晚上涨跌+20%，都算是“小幅波动”。造富神话和破产讨债并存。
In the currency circles, a late rise or fall + 20 per cent is called “small fluctuations”. The myth of wealth and bankruptcy coexist with debt collection.
经历了币圈的大喜大落，人很难再有心态，重返淡而无味的股市波动。
After the boom in currency circles, it is difficult for a person to have a mentality and return to a mild and odious stock market.
每天才赌4个小时，涨跌幅±10%，好无趣啊。
It's only four hours a day, it's 10% up and down. It's boring.
适合中年大妈。
It's for middle-aged moms.
尤其是对90后年轻人的收割，“币圈”占据了绝对份额。
In particular, the “currency circle” accounted for an absolute share of the harvest, especially for the post-90 youth.
“股市”越发沦为养生枸杞中老年人的闲溜场所。
The “equity market” is increasingly becoming a place for the care of the elderly.
从IP角度来讲，前景堪忧。
From an IP perspective, the outlook is worrying.
（想想更老的更老的老头子的邮币卡）
Think of the mail card for the older old man.
六）强监管
(vi) Strong regulation
股市的第三个问题，是641.
The third question on the stock market is 641.
上位者一定要内心清楚，中国股市，是毫无价值的。 别说4500点防线，别说2000点支撑位，都是马奇诺。
股票现售的价格，主要是“博彩业”价值。
The spot price of the stock consists mainly of the value of the “gaming industry”.
靠博彩业支撑。高抛低吸，互相算计。大家玩得兴高采烈。
It's supported by the gambling industry. It's high and low. It's a game. Everybody's having a good time.
可是你说“赌神”周润发吧。他跑到你的场子。被告知：
But you said, "The Gambling God" Chow. He ran to your place. He was told:
- “出了三个K之后，便不可以出?Q”。
- “斗地主?8910JQK可以出，但是?78910JQK便不许出”。
- “如果你摸到四个A，系统自动判断你作弊”。
- “庄家出?4，你必需回答要不起”。
周润发一脸黑线，“你玩我”？
Zhou Yuen has a black line, "You're playing with me"?
要说什么天理，没有天理。
There's no such thing as heaven.
规矩就是这样，没有道理。
That's the way it is, it doesn't make sense.
想在这个场子玩，庄家的?345，你就必需/只能/说要不起。
You want to play in this place, dealer? 345, you have to/can't afford it.
你这个赌场，本来已经令人乏味了。 再搞这么多规矩，更没有人玩了。
鉴于咖啡，641我们就不展开了。
In view of the coffee, we don't start 641.
七）结语
VII. CONCLUSION
炒股的都是下九流。中年大妈。
The stock market's in the bottom line. Middle-aged maestro.
（yevon_ou@163.com，2018年10月24日晚）
(Yevon_ou@163.com, 24 October 2018 evening)
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