最近一次的比特币减半是在一年前，2020年5月11日（UTC时间）。为了纪念这一事件，让我们回顾一下过去一年中比特币市场所发生的事，并展望一下未来可能出现的情况。
The most recent halving of Bitcoin was a year ago, on 11 May 2020 (UTC time). To mark this event, let us look back at what happened in the past year in the Bitcoin market and look ahead to what might happen in the future.
减半量化紧缩的重要性在2020年3月初的全球流动性危机期间，所有资产类别都出现了创纪录的暴跌，此后更是迎来了前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施。当时，比特币在2020年5月11日减半时的价格为8000美元左右。全球的投资者开始意识到，他们需要寻求庇护，并使自己免受急剧的货币扩张的影响。与此形成强烈对比的是，比特币经历了一次量化紧缩--即无论任何政策制定者的选择，新比特币的供应发行被削减了50%。
Global investors began to realize that they needed to seek asylum and to protect themselves from sharp monetary expansion. In sharp contrast, Bitcoin experienced a quantitative contraction – a 50% cut in the distribution of new bitcoins, regardless of any policymakers’ choice.
自2020年减半事件以来，投资者围绕着即将出现的创纪录的货币扩张而产生的情绪被证明是正确的。美联储（和其他主要的全球央行）继续向金融系统注入流动性，以保持宽松的借贷条件，而这也对采用比特币作为存在于系统外的替代货币资产起到了重要作用。
Since the halving of the 2020 event, investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming record monetary expansion has proved right. The Fed (and other major global central banks) continue to inject liquidity into the financial system to maintain loose lending conditions, which also play an important role in using bitcoin as an alternative monetary asset that exists outside the system.
在写这篇文章的时候，比特币自减半以来已经上涨了533%，因需求激增加上无弹性（和减少50%）的供应发行的供需动态导致该资产飙升至1万亿美元市值以上。
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had increased by 533 per cent since its halving, and the assets had jumped to over $1 trillion in market value as demand surges combined with inelastic (and a 50 per cent reduction) supply and demand dynamics.
在减半事件之前，传奇华尔街经理Paul Tudor Jones曾发表了一份题为 "伟大的货币通胀 "的报告，在报告中他概述了其对现行货币体系的信念和它未来发展的道路，以及为什么他认为比特币是 "最快的马"。
Prior to the halving event, the legendary Wall Street manager Paul Tudor Jones published a report entitled & #34; Great Currency Inflation & #34; in which he outlined his faith in the current monetary system and the way forward and why he thought Bitcoin was & #34; the fastest horse #34;
此后不久，在比特币崛起的一个分水岭时刻，MicroStrategy公司在如今著名的比特币支持者Michael Saylor的领导下，宣布将比特币作为其金库储备资产使用。
Shortly thereafter, at a watershed moment when Bitcoin rose, 在后来越来越被接受的观点中，Saylor同公司决定不以CPI为衡量通货膨胀的准确标准，而是决定用M2货币基础来衡量通货膨胀率。 In an increasingly accepted view, Saylor and the company decided not to use CPI as an accurate measure of inflation, but rather to use the M2 monetary base to measure inflation. 在去年减半之前，比特币社区和其他广泛的金融系统中的众人都在争论减半是否会在价格上体现，因为这一事件在未来会是众所周知的。虽然我不会深入讨论我对这场辩论的个人看法，但由于比特币价格的细微差别和所有外生变量和因素的影响，比特币的价格似乎正在遵循着2019年3月由匿名推特账户Plan B首次提出的S2F模型，这一点上极为有趣。 Before halving last year, the Bitcoin community and others in the broader financial system were arguing whether halving would be reflected in prices, because this event would be well known in the future. Although I will not discuss in depth my personal views on this debate, because of the nuanced differences in bitcoin prices and the influence of all exogenous variables and factors, Bitcoin’s prices seem to be following the S2F model first proposed in March 2019 by the anonymous 未来的减半也会如此吗？谁知道呢？但已知的是，由于2024年的减半距离我们只有156,872个区块，因此，抢在下一次减半前做好准备可能会是个好主意...... Would that be the case in the future? Who knows? But what is known is that, since we have only 156,872 blocks to halve in 2024, it might be a good idea to get ready before the next half... 记住，如果你不做多比特币，你就是空头。最后，减半一周年快乐! Remember, if you don't do Dobitcoin, you're empty. Finally, half a year happy!
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