2017年12月8日凌晨，一度触及2万美元的比特币短暂的重新跌回15000美元。一周之内上涨100%，再下跌25%，在比特币领域已经见怪不怪了。
In the early hours of December 8, 2017, 20,000 bitcoins were touched for a brief fall back to $15,000. A 100 per cent increase and a further 25 per cent decline in a week is not surprising in the area of bitcoin.
“比特币就像美元”支持者说，但美元也曾崩盘。
According to supporters of “bitcoin is like dollars”, the dollar also collapsed.
1973年3月，美元被世界各国疯狂抛售，原本应当刚性定价的黄金从一盎司42.22美元涨至96美元，相当于美元对黄金一夜跌了一倍。
In March 1973, the United States dollar was frenziedly sold around the world, with gold, which should have been priced rigidly, rising from $42.22 to $96, equivalent to double the dollar overnight.
而这一次的美元危机，彻底摧毁了二战以来建立的布雷顿森林货币体系，告别了美元与黄金的刚性挂钩。各国也结束了以美元作为唯一外汇储备的外汇政策，开始了各国货币多边浮动化交易的时代。
This dollar crisis has completely destroyed the Bretton Woods monetary system established since World War II, breaking the rigid link between the dollar and gold. Countries have also ended their foreign-exchange policy of using the dollar as the only foreign-exchange reserve, and have begun the era of multilateral floating transactions in their currencies.
而现在的数字加密货币世界里，似乎仍然维持着以比特币为中心的布雷顿森林体系。
And the Bretton Woods system, centred on Bitcoin, still seems to be maintained in the world of digital cryptography.
比特币的布雷顿森林体系
The Bretton Woods System of Bitcoin
1944年，第二次世界大战结束，全球满目疮痍。
In 1944, the Second World War ended and the world was devastated.
7月的时候，44个国家的代表在美国的布雷顿森林举行了一次联合国货币金融会议。这场会议的目的很明确，为了能在战后的世界中快速的恢复各国之间的贸易，以促进各国的战后重建和经济发展。
In July, representatives of 44 countries held a United Nations monetary and financial conference in Bretton Woods, United States. The purpose of the conference was clear, with a view to rapidly restoring trade between countries in the post-war world in order to promote post-war reconstruction and economic development.
在这次会议上，两个至今依然活跃的组织被建立，一个叫国际货币基金组织，另一个叫世界银行。但对历史影响更深远的，是后来被称为布雷顿森林体系的一系列货币协定。
At that meeting, two organizations, one called the International Monetary Fund and the other the World Bank, were established to be still active, but the more profound implications for history were the series of monetary agreements later known as the Bretton Woods system.
布雷顿森林体系的核心是两个强行的等式，一个等式是强行规定35美元等于一盎司黄金（约28.35克），另一个等式是强行规定布雷顿森林体系成员国每个国家的货币等于多少美元。
At the heart of the Bretton Woods system are two mandatory equations, one of which is the mandatory equivalent of $35 to one ounce of gold (approximately 28.35 grams) and the other of the mandatory equivalent of the currency of each State member of the Bretton Woods system to the United States dollar.
这一体系的优势非常明显，就是在信息不发达，计算力也不足的时代为国际金融和国际贸易大幅提升了效率。简单来说，就是A国想去B国买东西，不用通过复杂的计算（因为每个国家的黄金储量不同）而是直接根据美元换算一下就可以了。
The advantage of this system is that in an era of information underdevelopment and undercalculation, the efficiency of international finance and international trade has been greatly enhanced. Simply put, country A wants to buy from country B, not through complex calculations (because each country has different gold reserves) but directly on the basis of the dollar.
在许多币圈的人眼中，比特币在数字加密货币领域就如同现实中的美元，是统领其它货币和规避风险的存在。
In the eyes of many currency circles, bitcoin, like the real dollar in the field of digital cryptography, is the dominance of other currencies and the existence of risk aversion.
比特币也确实，承担着如同布雷顿森林体系中美元一样的结算地位。只不过和布雷顿森林体系中的美元一样，比特币也是最脆弱的数字加密货币。
It is true that Bitcoin has the same final position as the United States dollar in the Bretton Woods system. Just like the United States dollar in the Bretton Woods system, Bitcoin is the most vulnerable digitally encrypted currency.
布雷顿森林体系崩溃的原因有很多，最直接的一个是随着战后国际贸易繁荣增长，美元很快就不够用了。这时如果严格按照黄金产量去增印美元则会拖累国际间结算，破坏第二个等式。而如果为了保持结算效率让美元与黄金脱钩则会导致第一个等式被破坏。
There are many reasons for the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the most immediate being that, with the boom in post-war international trade, the dollar will soon run out of use. At that point, strict compliance with gold production to add to the dollar will drag international settlements and undermine the second equation.
这是根植于这一体系内部无法调和的矛盾，而这样的矛盾在数字加密货币中也同样存在。
This is an irreconcilable contradiction rooted in the system, which also exists in digitally encrypted currencies.
如果将每一种数字加密货币，看做一个独立的国家。那么每种数字加密货币背后的区块链技术所能产生的价值，就是一个国家的全民生产总值。
If each digitally encrypted currency is treated as an independent country, then the value of the block chain technology behind each digital encrypted currency is a country’s gross national product.
各国汇率之间的动态浮动本质上并不应该于其中的某一个国家挂钩，而是应该与自身的经济发展有关。
Dynamic fluctuations in exchange rates among countries should not inherently be linked to one of them, but should be linked to their own economic development.
换句话说，比特币为什么永远是币圈长得最快，从不跌穿的哪一个呢？
In other words, why is Bitcoin always the fastest-growing currency ring, and which one never falls through?
“美元陨落”
"United States dollar crash"
站在1944年的联合国货币金融会议上，以美元为中心建立一套战后的货币体系是合理的。
At the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in 1944, it was reasonable to establish a post-war monetary system centred on the United States dollar.
毕竟，在第二次世界大战结束后，美国成了世界上最富有的国家，这个富有是字面意义上的富有。当时，美国占有世界已开采黄金总量的75%。如果想要用一种法币来取代黄金作为国际间结算的工具，那么美元无疑是最好的选择。
After all, after the end of the Second World War, the United States became the richest country in the world, a wealth that was literally rich. At that time, the United States accounted for 75% of the world’s gold extracted.
但在布雷顿森林体系崩溃前，美国已经流失了约2/3的黄金储备，这也是美元无法维持其价值的直接原因。
However, before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States had lost about two thirds of its gold reserves, a direct reason why the United States dollar could not maintain its value.
在现实世界中之后的走向尚且不谈，在数字加密货币领域似乎也是如此。
The post-world course has not yet been discussed, as appears to be the case in the area of digital cryptography of currencies.
在发展多年之后，比特币的原罪依然是没有使用价值，而且是越来越没有使用价值。而比特币的后辈们却渐渐摆脱了原罪，开始追求实际的意义。
After many years of development, Bitcoin’s original crime remains unusable and increasingly unusable. Bitcoin’s descendants are gradually emerging from the original crime and starting to pursue its true meaning.
现实中美元的涨跌与无数的国际事件相关，这些事件所直接影响的是美国，而美元只是一种代表大众对美国这个国家未来预期的符号。但比特币背后什么都没有，所谓的利好和利空，都对比特币的使用场景没有影响，因为比特币没有使用场景。
In reality, the dollar’s up and down is linked to numerous international events, which directly affect the United States, a symbol of popular expectations of the future of the country. But nothing on the back of Bitcoin, so-called good and cheap, has nothing to do with the use of bitcoin, because bitcoin does not use the scene.
换用更直观的例子来说，比特币以后ICO的加密数字货币，或多或少都有一些实际的使用场景，一些加密数字货币是专有价值：
In exchange for a more intuitive example, the encrypted digital currency of the ICO after Bitco has, to a greater or lesser extent, some of the actual usage scenarios, some of which are of exclusive value:
比如迅雷的玩客币其价值的基本盘云计算的资产证券化，未来你可以用玩客币来购买一定的云服务；再比如以5miles的CyberMiles其价值基本盘是二手商品交易的流通手，通过它进行交易可以节省高额的交易费用。
As in the case of the securitization of assets calculated by the basic cloud of the value of the fast playing money, in the future you can buy a certain cloud service by playing it; and as in the case of the five-milles CyberMilles, whose value is essentially a negotiator of second-hand trades, trading through it can save high transaction costs.
而另一些加密数字货币是公有价值：
Other encrypted digital currencies are of public value:
比如以太坊，其背后搭建的通用型区块链计算平台。用一个不恰当的比方来说，以太坊和EOS网络本身就像是一台完全分布式的超级计算机，任何人或公司都可以使用它来构建自己的App、网站或者其他应用，而这台超级计算机的支付方式就是以太币和EOS币。
For example, a universal block-chain computing platform has been set up behind Taiwan. In an inappropriate way, Taiwan and EOS networks are themselves like a fully distributed supercomputer, which any person or company can use to build its own app, website or other applications, and the way that the supercomputer is paid for is in Tai Yin and EOS.
这就好像是布雷顿森林体系中的成员国，战后各国百废待兴，你擅长生产钢铁，我擅长电解铝，我们通过国际贸易都有了美好的未来。
It's like being a member of the Bretton Woods system, a post-war country with a lot of ruins, you're good at making steel, I'm good at electrolysis aluminum, and we have a good future through international trade.
而反观在这一体系中充当美元的“比特币”，却并没有战后美国那样的地位，也没有黄金在世界工业、艺术品领域的使用需求。比特币除了是加密数字货币中最早的一家之外，没有任何价值基本盘，比特币的挖矿过程就是费电，不产生任何使用价值。
Instead of being a dollar “bitcoin” in this system, there is no post-war US status, nor is there any need for gold to be used in the world’s industrial and art industries. Bitcoin has no base plate of value, except for the first of the encrypted digital currencies. Bitcoin’s mining process is expensive and does not produce any use value.
在数字加密货币现有的模式下，比特币虚高的“美元地位”甚至已经开始影响到其它数字加密货币的发展。
Under the current pattern of digital cryptography currencies, the undesired “dollar status” of bitcoin has even begun to affect the development of other digital cryptography currencies.
二手电商网站5miles是一个已经上线运行2年左右的外国版“闲鱼”，在今年早些时候进行ICO时曾接受过PingWest品玩的采访。
The second-hand electrician's website, 5Milles, is a foreign version of the free fish that has been online for about two years and was interviewed for PingWest earlier this year at the ICO.
他们使用区块链技术的目的主要是为了降低二手交易过程中的交易费用——尽管5miles在用户间交易时不收取任何费用，但用户如果选择线上交易，要被Paypal或其他第三方支付公司收取17%的交易手续费。而如果使用区块链或虚拟代币来完成交易，那么每次交易的成本可以降低至交易额的1%以下。
They use block chain technology primarily to reduce transaction costs during second-hand transactions – although no fee is charged by 5 milles at the time of the transaction between users, users are charged 17% transaction fees by Paypal or other third parties to pay the company for the transaction. If block chains or virtual tokens are used to complete the transaction, the cost of each transaction can be reduced to less than 1% of the transaction value.
然而，一旦ICO，虚拟货币不可避免的将进入第三方虚拟币交易平台流通，难免与比特币的价值挂钩导致代币价格的巨大波动。这对于真的想用代币来进行现实交易的5miles来说百害而无一利。
However, once ICO is inescapable, the virtual currency will flow into a third-party virtual currency trading platform, and it will inevitably be linked to the value of bitcoin that will cause great fluctuations in the price of the tokens. This is not a good thing for the 5milles who really want to make a real deal with the tokens.
在国内，被热炒的迅雷玩客币也是币值剧烈波动的“受害者”之一，玩客云的挖矿机制是通过用户共享闲置带宽和硬盘获得。通过实现带宽与流量的资产证券化，实现CDN等云计算服务的动态调价和需求对接。但玩客币炒家的涌入让玩客币的价格远远偏离了其所对应的CDN价值。
Domestically, the hot-feared blizzards are also one of the “victims” of sharp currency fluctuations, and their mining mechanisms are obtained through the sharing of idle bandwidth and hard disks by users. By securitizing the assets of bandwidth and traffic, dynamic price adjustments and demands for cloud computing services, such as CDNs, are matched.
尽管基于区块链的整个数字加密货币体系是分散的，但比特币就是这个分散体系的中心，而托管式比特币交易平台又是比特币中的中心。通过对交易平台的监管，现实世界的政府可以有效的对其它加密货币的发行和兑换做出控制。
Although the entire digitally encrypted monetary system based on block chains is fragmented, Bitcoin is at the centre of this decentralized system, and the hosting Bitcoin trading platform is at the centre of Bitcoin. By regulating trading platforms, real-world governments can effectively control the issuance and exchange of other encrypted currencies.
此前中国政府对比特币交易平台的管理可能是遏止整个数字加密货币体系的关键，而对平台的彻底封杀，反而使得ICO和场外交易在暗地里变得更为活跃。
Previously, the management of the Chinese Government’s Bitcoin trading platform might have been the key to curbing the entire digitally encrypted monetary system, while the total closure of the platform had made the ICO and off-site transactions more active clandestinely.
这也是在中国完全取缔比特币交易之后，比特币价格反而大幅上涨的原因——并不是利空出尽，而是中心的消失对于一个分布式系统来说本身就是一件好事。
This is also why, after China had completely banned the Bitcoin transaction, the price of bitcoin rose sharply — not because of the loss of profit, but because the disappearance of the centre was itself a good thing for a distributed system.
在早年比特币刚刚出现的时候，以比特币为支付手段的消费场景还曾出现增长趋势，但随着比特币币值常年大幅度波动，技术导致的网络拥堵以及价格过高导致的交易费过高等问题。现在已经很少见到新的比特币消费场景了。
At the time of the early appearance of Bitcoin, the consumption of bitcoin as a means of payment had also shown an upward trend, but with its constant volatility, technology-induced network congestion and excessive transaction costs due to excessive prices, new bitcoin consumption has rarely been seen.
在逐渐失去了作为匿名支付手段这一功能之后，比特币也不再称得上是完美的去中心化数字货币。甚至，比特币本身变成了一种中心。
After gradually losing its function as an anonymous means of payment, Bitcoin is no longer a perfect decentralized digital currency. Even bitcoin itself becomes a centre.
比特币开启了大众对区块链的认知，曾经是区块链唯一的应用，这让它像是曾经的美国一样强大，但现在呢？
Bitcoin has opened up public awareness of the block chain, which used to be the only application of the block chain, making it as strong as it used to be in America, but now what?
不好说。
Hard to say.
在去中心化的世界里，需要本位货币么？
Do you need a local currency in the world of decentralisation?
说到底，在去中心化的世界里，寻找一种能够避险、贮藏、稳定升值的本位货币，本身就是一件有些奇怪的事情。
At the end of the day, in a decentralized world, it is a strange thing to look for a local currency that can avoid risk, store and stabilize appreciation.
货币最主要的用途是两种，一种是拿来流通，一种是拿来贮藏。脱胎于区块链的数字加密货币，优势显然是流通——可信交易，透明账簿，来源可溯这都是流通领域的优点。但上文已经提到了，比特币发展至今日，已经基本失去了作为流通货币的作用。
The two most important uses of money are for circulation, and for storage. Digitally encrypted currencies, off the block chain, have an obvious advantage – credible transactions, transparent books, the source of which is an advantage in the area of circulation.
如果不能充当流通手段，那么比特币是否能发挥其作为货币的贮藏手段呢？
If not used as a means of communication, would Bitcoin be able to use its means of storage as a currency?
2017年10月31日，中国官方取缔比特币交易平台的一个月之后，芝加哥商业交易所发文《比特币、黄金和法币间变换的经济关系》论述了比特币的贮藏价值，并打算在12月18日上线比特币的期货交易。
On 31 October 2017, one month after China's official closure of the Bitcoin trading platform, the Chicago commercial transaction " Economic Relations between Bitcoin, Gold and French Currency Change " addressed the storage value of Bitcoin and intended to enter on 18 December for futures transactions in Bitcoin.
芝商所认为，比特币的贮藏手段和流通手段存在内部矛盾，比特币虽然作为流通手段十分不稳定，但和黄金一样是十分好的贮藏工具。
According to the cheese merchant, there is an internal contradiction between the means of storage and the means of circulation of Bitcoin, which, although highly unstable as a means of circulation, is as good a storage tool as gold.
但比特币与黄金不同，他们的关系像是美元和黄金，前者是货币的符号，后者才是真正的货币。
But, unlike gold, Bitcoins are related to the dollar, which is the symbol of the currency, and gold, which is the true currency.
换种说法，可以被贮藏的应该是可以被重新拿出来“用”的——100年前埋下的黄金，在100年后大体上还可以用在工业生产或艺术品生产上。但100年前埋下的美元或比特币，却并不一定还能代表100年前同样的使用价值。
In other words, what could be stored could be “used” again – gold buried 100 years ago, largely for industrial or art production 100 years later. But the dollar or bitcoin buried 100 years ago does not necessarily represent the same use value as 100 years ago.
在现实中的例子是国家信用破产，导致纸币迭代，或者是因特殊需要更换纸币样式并废除旧式纸币。
In reality, the insolvency of national credit led to the replacement of banknotes or the replacement of paper currency styles and the abolition of old ones because of special needs.
在区块链领域，这就是分叉——因为一些在此无需赘述的技术原因，加密货币都面临着周期性的分叉，比特币也不例外。软分叉相当于发行了第六版人民币，第五版还能接着用。硬分叉相当于发行了第六版人民币，第五版不能用了，必须在指定的时间范围内从第五版更换到第六版。
In the area of block chains, this is the fork — for some technical reasons that need not be repeated here, encrypted currencies face periodical splits, with bitcoins no exception. Soft splits are equivalent to the sixth edition of the renminbi, and the fifth edition is still available. Hard fork is equivalent to the sixth edition of the renminbi, which is not useful, and must be replaced from the fifth to the sixth within the specified time frame.
再从现实角度来讲，黄金作为贮藏手段的最主要优势其实来源于其物理稳定性。这一点在贮藏水平不高的古代尤为突出，黄金是少数极为稳定的贵金属之一，不会因为一些意外而损失价值，这也是可以行使贮藏手段的基本前提之一。
In practical terms, the greatest advantage of gold as a means of storage is actually its physical stability. This is particularly true in ancient times, where the level of storage is low, where gold is one of the few highly stable precious metals that will not lose value by accident, and one of the basic prerequisites for the exercise of the means of storage.
而比特币的物理稳定性非常低，在线的热钱包频频被盗，价值成千万上亿美元的比特币丢失已经不算是什么大新闻了。
The physical stability of Bitcoin is very low, the online hot wallets are frequently stolen, and the loss of bitcoins worth millions of dollars is no longer a big story.
离线的冷钱包则严格依赖于存储介质的寿命——而遗憾的是，人类到目前为止的数字存储设备的平均寿命在8年左右，如果你真的像网上提到的那样“买两枚比特币，把钱包放到硬盘里忘掉它”，最终的结果最大的可能是你会把这两枚比特币搞丢。
The unlined cold wallet depends strictly on the lifetime of the stored medium — unfortunately, the average life of human digital storage equipment so far is around eight years, and if you really “buy two bitcoins and put your wallet on a hard disk” as mentioned online, the most likely result is that you will lose both bitcoins.
将比特币存起来，更像是将纸币存起来而不是将黄金存起来，现代国家发行的纸币是货币符号而非货币本身。其并没有贮藏价值，无论是将纸币放在银行还是放在床底下，发挥的都是其储蓄职能而非贮藏手段。
The deposit of bitcoins is more like the deposit of paper coins than gold, which are issued by modern countries as currency symbols rather than as money itself. It has no storage value, whether in banks or under the bed, and is used as a savings function rather than as a storage tool.
黄金作为天然金属可没有这样麻烦的事情，你把一坨黄金藏在床下大体不用担心它的变质、损坏和过期，传上几百年依然可以重回流通市场，
There's no such thing as gold as a natural metal. You hide a piece of gold under a bed without much fear of its deterioration, damage and expiry, and you can return to the market for centuries.
所以把比特币在贮藏手段领域的作用和黄金等价，并不高明。
Therefore, the role of Bitcoin in the area of storage instruments and the gold equivalent is not very good.
各国政府倒是都乐于形成以比特币为中心的布雷顿森林体系，因为好监管
和现实中的货币体系迭代一样，数字加密货币的汇率体系正在迭代，早期的数字加密货币ICO时往往只收取比特币——这相当于布雷顿森林体系中一个国家的外汇储备只需要储备美元，而现在新的ICO中往往接受多种数字加密货币和法币。
As with the real currency system, the exchange-rate system for digital encrypted currencies is changing, and the earlier digital encrypted currency ICO is often charged only bitcoin — the equivalent of a country's foreign exchange reserves in the Bretton Woods system that require only reserves in United States dollars, whereas the new ICO now tends to accept multiple digital encrypted currencies and French currencies.
国际货币储备体系经历了黄金-英镑、美元-黄金、美元和多种货币储备四个阶段，按去中心化的程度来说，目前所实行的多种货币储备才是最去中心的——每个国家都储备多个其它国家的货币作为结算货币，多边汇率动态调价。
The international monetary reserve system has gone through four stages: the pound sterling, the dollar-the gold, the dollar and the multi-currency reserve, which, to the extent of decentralisation, is the most central of the multi-currency reserves currently in place — each country reserves the currencies of many other countries as its final currency, and the multilateral exchange rate is dynamic.
这仿佛是对提倡“去中心”的数字加密货币们的一次嘲笑，因为现在的数字加密货币结算体系似乎比现实世界还要中心化。
This seems to be a mockery of digitally encrypted currencies that promote “go to the centre”, as the current system of digitally encrypted monetary settlements seems to be more central than the real world.
也许是时候让比特币退场了，这样其它的加密数字货币会发展的更好。
Maybe it's time for Bitcoin to quit, so that other encrypted digital currencies can grow better.
相关专题：比特币迎来首个期货交易
related topic: bitcoincomes the first futures transaction
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New Wave Technology Public.
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"Knock on the technology" is anecdotal.
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