从这周开始，全球风险资产不断上演暴跌行情。
Starting this week, global risk assets are falling apart.
最先出现暴跌的是比特币，比特币价格从周一的5.8万美元高位一路下跌至4.6万美元之下，不到两天时间暴跌超过20%以上，虽然之后两天略有反弹，但是在周五又跌回4.6万美元之下。
The first drop was in bitcoin, which fell from a high of $58,000 on Monday to below $46,000, and more than 20 per cent in less than two days, but again below $46,000 on Friday, despite a slight rebound in the next two days.
比特币之所以暴跌，源于周一耶伦的一番警告。
The sharp fall of Bitcoin stems from a warning from Yale on Monday.
一直以来，耶伦就对比特币持怀疑态度，在2017年耶伦还是美联储主席的时候，就曾表示比特币是一种“高度投机性资产”。
Aaron has always been skeptical about Bitcoin, which was described as a “highly speculative asset” when he was Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2017.
而本周一的一场网络研讨会时，身份转换为美国财政部长的耶伦再度重申了这一观点，指出比特币在合法性和稳定性方面均存在重要隐患，不仅经常被用于非法融资，还具有高度不确定性，投资者应该当心。
This view was reiterated at a web-based seminar this Monday by Ellen, who converted his identity to that of the United States Treasury Secretary, noting that Bitcoin has important risks in terms of legitimacy and stability, often used not only for illicit financing, but also for a high degree of uncertainty, and that investors should be wary.
此外耶伦还表示，由美联储发行的基于区块链技术的央行数字货币将使支付变得更快捷、安全且便宜。
Moreover, Ellen stated that the central bank digital currency issued by the Federal Reserve, based on block chain technology, would make payments faster, safer and cheaper.
在耶伦这一番言论后，之前被投资者“捧上天”的比特币开始迅速下跌，36个小时内跌破12个整数关口。
After Aaron's words, bitcoin, which had been “to the sky” before the investor, began to fall rapidly, breaking 12 full points in 36 hours.
除了比特币，其他加密货币也出现不同程度的暴跌。5天内，莱特币、达世币、瑞波币价格下跌30%左右，以太坊跌去35%。
In addition to Bitcoin, other encrypted currencies have fallen to varying degrees.
国债收益率暴涨，全球股市普跌
The rate of return on national debt rose sharply, and the global stock market fell
如果说比特币等加密货币的暴跌是源于耶伦的一番“恐吓”，那么美股的大跌则源于与美国长期国债收益率在飙升。
If the fall in encrypted currencies, such as bitcoin, is a “threat” from Ellen, then the fall in United States shares is a result of a sharp rise in the rate of return on long-standing United States national debt.
自从去年8月触底反弹后，中长期限美国国债收益率持续上升，今年开始更是加速上行。
Since the fall of last August, the rate of return on the United States Treasury debt has continued to rise over the medium and long term, starting at an accelerated pace this year.
而在本周四，5年期、10年期美债收益率纷纷大幅飙升超200个基点，10年期美债收益更是一度突破1.6%，刷新近一年高位。
This Thursday, five-year and ten-year-old U.S. debt returns surged by over 200 basis points, with the U.S. debt gains peaking by 1.6 per cent for the 10-year period.
而专业分析显示，一旦10年期期美债收益处于1.5%至1.75%之间，持有基本没有风险的国债收益将超过标普500指数的股息收益率，这将引发资金从股市流向债市。
Professional analysis shows that once the return on US debt over a 10-year period is between 1.5 per cent and 1.75 per cent, holding essentially risk-free public debt gains will exceed 道指下跌1.75%，标普500下跌2.45%，纳指下跌3.52%；周五而美国道琼斯指数续跌1.5%，标普500指数续跌0.48%，而纳斯达克指数小幅反弹0.56%。
On Thursday, the three major units of the United States fell by 1.75 per cent, 在美股大跌带动下，全球股市都出现不同程度下跌。 The global stock market has experienced varying degrees of decline, driven by a sharp fall in the United States stock market. 周五亚太各大股指则全线下跌，香港恒生指数暴跌3.34%，东京日经225指数暴跌3.99%，韩国综合指数下跌2.8%；A股方面，上证指数、创业板都下跌2.12%，深圳成指下跌2.17%。 On Friday, major Asia-Pacific shares fell by 3.99 per cent, and Hong Kong's Helium Index fell by 3.34 per cent. Tokyo . Korea 欧洲三大股指周四就出现小幅下跌，周五跌幅继续扩大。英国伦敦金融时报100指数大跌2.53%，法国巴黎CAC40指数下跌1.39%，德国法兰克福DAX指数指数下跌0.67%。 Europe’s three major shares fell slightly on Thursday, and the fall on Friday continued to expand. The British London Financial Times index dropped by 2.53%, the CAC 40 index in Paris, France, by 1.39%, and the DAX index in Frankfurt, Germany, by 0.67%. 亚太、欧美股市之所以出现暴跌，除了受美国股市影响之外，另一大因素就是债券收益率暴涨潮蔓延至全球主要经济体。 In addition to the impact of the United States stock market, another major factor contributing to the collapse of the Asia-Pacific, European and United States stock markets is the spread of the boom in bond yields to major global economies. 以日本、澳大利亚为例：2月25日，日本10年期国债收益率大涨40个基点至0.17%，这是自2016年1月以来最高；2月26日，澳大利亚10年期国债收益率一度跳升20个基点，至1.93％。 In the case of Japan, Australia: on 25 February, Japan's 10-year rate of return on public debt rose significantly by 40 basis points to 0.17 per cent, the highest since January 2016; on 26 February, Australia's 10-year rate of return on public debt jumped by 20 basis points to 1.93 per cent. 疫苗接种+财政刺激，经济预期向好 Vaccination + Fiscal Stimulus, with good economic expectations 而国债收益率之所以暴涨，是因为全球经济预期向好。而市场之所以一致认为接下来全球经济大幅向好，是因为各国都在大力推进新冠疫苗的接种。 and the rate of return on public debt surged because the global economy was expected to be better. and the market agreed that the global economy would be much better next because all countries were pushing ahead with the vaccination of the new crown. 以美国为例，拜登上任之初提出每日接种100万剂、100天内接种1亿剂疫苗的计划，后来又加码到每天150万。 In the United States, for example, Biden began his mandate with a plan of 1 million doses per day and 100 million doses within 100 days, which was later added to 1.5 million doses per day. 在拜登政府大力推动下，美国的疫苗接种量迅速攀升，短短37天美国完成了5000万剂疫苗接种，完成预定计划一半，为此2月25日拜登对自己的功劳大推特吹，称美国“也许是唯一一个完成这一目标的国家”。 With a strong push from the Biden Government, vaccination coverage in the United States has risen rapidly, with only 37 days to complete 50 million doses of vaccination and half of the planned plan in the United States. For this reason, on 25 February Biden paid his credit to , saying that the United States “may be the only country to accomplish this goal”. 而随着疫苗的普及，美国新冠疫情迅速得到有效控制。1月初美国每日新增确诊在20万以上迅速下滑到目前的6万上下，住院人数在过去一个月内下降了超过50%。 and with the spread of vaccines, the new American crown epidemic is rapidly and effectively controlled. Early in January, when more than 200,000 new diagnostics were confirmed daily in the United States, the number of hospitalizations fell by more than 50 per cent over the past month. 可见，新冠疫苗的广泛接种有效地让美国控制住了疫情，给美国经济复苏打下来基础，而在这个基础上美国政府1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划通过让投资者看到美国经济将加速恢复的希望。 Thus, the widespread vaccination of the new crown has effectively brought the United States under control and laid the foundation for its economic recovery, on the basis of which the US Government’s 1.9 trillion dollar economic stimulus package offers investors hope that the US economy will accelerate recovery. 这并非空谈，而是有数据为证，以美国就业市场为例。 is not a rhetorical exercise, but is supported by data, for example, in the United States employment market. 1月，美国ADP就业人数为17.4万，远高于预测的5万人，这是自去年10月以来这一数值第一次好于预期。 In January, the number of ADP employed in the United States was 174,000, well above the projection of 50,000, a figure that for the first time had been better than expected since October last year. 而上周美国初请失业金人数下降至73万人，低于市场预期的82.5万人，这是去年11月末以来最低水平。 The number of unemployment payments in the United States fell to 730,000 at the beginning of the past week, below the market forecast of 8.25 million, the lowest level since late November last year. 新冠疫苗接种的推广以及拜登政府新一轮财政刺激措施让美国经济开始复苏，随着疫苗的普及和政政刺激政策的落实，美国经济复苏速度将进一步加快，在这种情况下投资者自然对美国经济增长寄予了更高的期望。 The spread of the new crown vaccination and the new round of fiscal stimulus by the Biden administration have allowed the United States economy to begin to recover, and the pace of recovery in the United States will be further accelerated with the introduction of universal vaccination and political stimulus policies, under which investors naturally place higher expectations on American economic growth. “价值之神”预言成真 The God of Values predicts the coming of life 这种预期加上私有、大宗商品价格的上升，共同提振了通货膨胀压力，使得中长期美债实际收益率持续走高。 This expectation, combined with the rise in private, 中长期美债名义收益率及其隐含通胀预期走势 The nominal rate of return on medium- and long-term United States debt and its underlying inflationary expectations 而美债名义、实际收益率上行，导致美国金融市场潜在波动风险上升。 The upward trend in nominal and real rates of return on United States debt has led to an increase in the risk of potential volatility in the financial markets of the United States. 美债收益率常被作为各类资产估值的无风险贴现率，其收益率的上升直接导致筹融资成本上升，使得美国实体企业的筹融资环境恶化。 The rate of return on United States debt is often used as a risk-free discount rate for the valuation of various types of assets, and the increase in the rate of return directly leads to an increase in the cost of financing, which worsens the financing environment for real United States enterprises. 同时美债收益率上升通常会影响企业未来的现金流折现，这将使得高估值个股估值下滑。因此我看到这次大跌中，高估值的大型科技蓝筹股成为了重灾区，特斯拉暴跌8%，脸书和谷歌、亚马逊跌幅超过3%。 At the same time, an increase in the yield rate of US debt usually affects the future cash flow of the enterprise, which will result in a decline in the valuation of high-value shares. So, in this big fall, the high-valued large-tech blue equity became a disaster area, 而很多专业投资者、投资机构早就预料到这一趋势，因此在年初时就提醒股市存在大跌风险。 At the beginning of the year, the stock market was reminded of the risk of a major decline, a trend that many professional investors and investment institutions had long anticipated. 1月5日，价值投资巨头、GMO联合创始人Jeremy Grantham亲自撰文表示：“自2009年迄今这一长而又长的牛市，终于膨胀成了完全成熟的史诗级泡沫。这个泡沫将应该会在新冠疫苗广泛推广之际，也就是今年的春末夏初被戳破。” On 5 January, Jeremy & nbsp, the co-founder of the GMO, a giant value investment, wrote himself: “The long and long cattle market since 2009 has finally swelled into a fully-fledged epic bubble. The bubble should be punctured at the time of the spread of the new crown vaccine, which is the beginning of the spring and early summer this year.” 两日后花旗将美国股票持仓削减至“中性”，并预计今年新兴市场和英国股市将有更好的收益。 Two days later, the flag reduced United States stock holdings to “neutral” and expected better returns from emerging markets and the United Kingdom stock market this year. 如今在美国疫苗大规模接种后，美股便开始大跌，再次证明Jeremy Grantham当初的预测的正确性，那么接下来的将是全球股市崩盘！ Now, after the massive vaccinations in the United States, the US stock began to fall, proving once again the validity of Jeremy Grantham's original prediction, and then the global stock market collapse! 作者 | 金莱 Author & nbsp; nbsp; Kim Lei
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