本周数字货币继续狂跌，比特币价格一泻千里，今年以来已跌去7成，回到2017年10月的水平。业内人士表示，比特币可能进入熊市，下跌势头或将变得更糟，更有分析师将比特币价格看低至1500美元。
The digital currency continued to fall sharply this week, with Bitcoin prices falling by 70% this year, back to its level of October 2017. Industry sources say that Bitcoin may have entered Bear City, that it may have lost momentum or become worse, and that even more analysts have put bitcoin prices down to $1,500.
比特币年内暴跌7成
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}The bitcoin fell by 70% during the year.
本周数字货币迎来“断崖式”下跌，比特币价格更是直接被打回2017年10月的水平。
This week, the digital currency fell “on the cliff”, and the price of bitcoin was hit directly back at its October 2017 level.
周一（11月19日），Bitstamp和Coinbase两个加密货币交易平台的比特币价格，率先跌破5000美元，下跌趋势很快从单家交易平台蔓延至全球。这是比特币在超过13个月的时间里首次跌破5000美元，距跌破6000美元关口仅五天时间。
Monday (19 November), Bitstamp and Coinbase, two encrypted currency trading platforms, were the first to fall by $5,000, and the downward trend quickly spread from single trading platforms to the rest of the world. This was the first time that Bitcoins had fallen by $5,000 in more than 13 months, just five days from the $6,000 cut.
周二（11月20日），市场恐慌情绪再次蔓延，比特币价格继续下探，击穿4300美元防线，连跌8日，创下自2017年10月以来的新低。
On Tuesday (20 November), the panic in the market spread again, and Bitcoin prices continued to pry, penetrating the $4,300 defence line and falling eight days in a row, setting a new low since October 2017.
周三（11月21日），比特币成交价格在4300美元左右小幅震荡， CoinMarketCap网站数据显示，比特币价格一度跌至4100美元以下。整体来看，比特币年内跌幅约七成。
On Wednesday (21 November), Bitcoin was traded for a small shock of about $4,300, and CoinMarketCap data show that bitcoin prices fell below $4,100 at one time. Overall, Bitcoin fell by about 70% during the year.
（图片来源：CoinMarketCap.com）
(photo: CoinMarketCap.com)
事实上，比特币价格已经经历了两次“腰斩”。11个月前，比特币在2017年12月18日涨至19229美元的最高点，部分交易所甚至突破2万美金，数字币市场总市值也突破8000亿美元。今年1月1日，比特币的价格回落至13354美元，目前则跌破5000美元。
In fact, bitcoin prices have gone through two “blank cuts.” Eleven months ago, Bitcoin rose to a peak of $19229 on 18 December 2017, with some exchanges breaking through even $20,000, and the total market value of the digital currency market breaking down by $800 billion. On 1 January, Bitcoin prices fell back to $13,354 and now fall to $5,000.
这意味着，如果一个投资者在今年年初买入20个比特币，那么损失金额将超过百万。有网友发帖表示，自己在币价最高峰时投入的10万元，现在只剩下2000多元，相当于亏掉了98%的本金。
This means that if an investor buys 20 bits of bitcoins at the beginning of this year, it will lose more than a million dollars. Some online friends say that they have invested 100,000 dollars at the peak of the currency, and now only 2,000 more, representing a loss of 98 per cent of the principal.
五大因素致使下跌
市场对此次比特币暴跌的原因有多种说法，整体看来有以下五大原因。 The market has various accounts of the reasons for the collapse of the bitcoin, and the whole appears to have five main reasons. 1)比特币现金(BCH)硬分叉引爆恐慌 1) Bitcoin cash (BCH) Exploded panic 很多人将比特币走势疲软主要归因于“硬分叉”，认为这是压垮比特币脆弱价格的最后一根稻草。 Many attributed the weakening of Bitcoin mainly to the “hard fork”, which was considered the last straw to crush the fragile price of Bitcoin. 所谓硬分叉，是当一种数字货币的社区对原有数字货币的技术共识产生分歧时，在原有链上分出来一个新的链条，并由此产生一种新的币。 The so-called hard fork is that when a community of digital currencies disagrees over the technical consensus of the original digital currency, a new chain is separated from the original chain and a new currency is created. 数字货币的伟大之处在于通过哈希算法保证的稀缺性，而硬分叉会导致稀缺性越来越差，这将从根本上对数字货币产生颠覆。 The greatness of digital currency lies in the scarcity guaranteed by the Hashi algorithm, while hard fork can lead to increasing scarcity, which will fundamentally destabilize the digital currency. 这次硬分叉在11月16日的凌晨最终落地，双方陷入了一次大规模的“算力战”，短期难以分出胜负，这影响了交易者和持币者的信心，直接导致避险性抛售加剧。 This hard fork finally landed in the early hours of 16 November, and the parties were caught in a large-scale “calculation battle” that was difficult to divide in the short term, affecting the confidence of traders and currency holders and directly leading to increased risk-free sales. 2)避险属性共识动摇 2) The consensus on the risk avoidance attributes is shaken 比特币一度被誉为加密货币黄金，和黄金一样具有避险属性。 Bitcoin was once referred to as encrypt currency gold, with the same risk avoidance attributes as gold. 无论是2013年让比特币声名大振的“塞浦路斯危机”，还是今年的“土耳其货币危机”，比特币都发挥了一定的“避险货币”功能，短时间内交易激增。 Whether the “Crisis of Cyprus” that gave Bitcoin its name in 2013 or the “Turkish Currency Crisis” this year, Bitcoin has performed a certain “risk currency” function, with a short-term surge in transactions. 然而此次暴跌，让人开始怀疑比特币是否真的具有避险属性。 The collapse, however, raised doubts as to whether Bitcoin really had a risk-free character. 从规模看，即便在顶峰期，比特币总市值也只有3200亿美金，不到黄金总市值的零头，目前比特币的总市值更是不到黄金总市值的6%。 On a scale, even during the peak period, the total market value of Bitcoin was only $32 billion, less than zero of the total market value of gold, and currently the total market value of Bitcoin is less than 6 per cent of the total market value of gold. 从交易便利性看，美国各大交易所的比特币业务均处于灰色地带，各国法律还未对比特币的合法性做出明确裁定，这些都削弱了比特币发挥避险货币的作用。 In terms of trade facilitation, the grey area of the operations of the bitcoin in major United States exchanges, and the fact that national laws have not yet clearly ruled on the legitimacy of the bitcoins, have weakened the role of bitcoin as a hedge currency. 数字货币资深分析师肖磊称，当前市场的阶段性焦点放在了STO等二级市场衍生品开发，而降低了对比特币等数字货币的战略意义和属性讨论，使得投资者对非信用货币的认识不足，持有比特币的安全感降低，信仰有所动摇。 Senior digital currency analysts Xiao argued that the current market phase focused on secondary market derivatives, such as the STO, while reducing the discussion of the strategic significance and attributes of digital currencies, such as bitcoin, had resulted in insufficient investor awareness of non-credit currencies, less security for holding bitcoins and a wave of faith. 3)技术层面看，比特币依然处于熊市 At the technical level, Bitcoin is still in Bear City. 本周早些时候，比特币跌破6000美元和其他关键技术位，这导致一些交易员开始“止损”，并加剧了抛售。 Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell by $6,000 and other key technical positions, which led some traders to “stop the damage” and to intensify the sale. 肖磊表示，目前比特币依然处在熊市区间，基本面没有出现直接利好，新增资金有限，投资者耐心不足，存在集中止损的情况。 Xiaojing stated that bitcoin was still in the bear city, with no direct profit on its fundamentals, limited additional funding, insufficient investor patience and suspension. FXTM富拓研究分析师Lukman Otunuga分析称，从技术面因素看，比特币上周收盘低于6000美元，这确认了其进一步看跌的走势。如果比特币本周收盘跌破5000美元，则该数字货币可能继续走低。 The FXTM high-tech research analyst, Lukman Otunuga, analysed that technically, Bitcoin collected less than $6,000 last week, confirming its further downward trend. If Bitcoin fell $5,000 this week, the currency might continue to fall. 4)监管趋严带来负面情绪 4)) Rigorous regulation creates negative emotions 上周五，美国证券交易委员会对Airfox和Paragon Coin Inc两家加密货币公司进行了民事处罚，这也被一些加密分析师认为是比特币价格暴跌的重要原因。 Last Friday, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission imposed civil penalties on two cryptographic money companies, Airfox and Paragon Coin Inc., which were also identified by some encryption analysts as important reasons for the sharp fall in Bitcoin prices. 针对这次处罚事件，ProChain Capital首席技术官表示：“抛售与执法有关，而这两家企业并不会是最后的案例，将来还会有更多企业受到牵连。” In response to the sanction, the Chief Technical Officer of ProChain Capital stated that “the sale is related to law enforcement, and the two enterprises will not be the final case, and more will be implicated in the future”. 5)受全球市场下跌牵连 5) is implicated in the fall of the global market 此外，比特币价格崩盘还可能与全球市场大跌有关。 In addition, the collapse of Bitcoin prices may be associated with a major decline in global markets. 摩根士丹利首席美股策略师Michael Wilson指出，美股已经处于“熊市”中，尽管2018年没有经历经济衰退，市场却已经嗅出企业盈利衰退和经济增长急剧减速的味道。 Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief American strategist, pointed out that the United States was already in the “ Bear City” and that, despite the absence of an economic recession in 2018, the market was already smelling a decline in corporate profitability and a sharp slowdown in economic growth. 比特币击穿矿机成本价 Bitcoin penetration machine cost 随着比特币价格一泻千里，产业链上游的比特币矿机也遭遇“矿难”，多个矿机成本价被击穿，部分中小型矿场无奈将矿机转卖清盘。 As bitcoin prices fell by miles, the bitcoin miner up the industrial chain also suffered a “mine disaster”, the cost of multiple mines was cut through, and some small and medium-sized mines were unable to sell the mine machine to clean up. 据悉，分布在国内新疆、内蒙等地的部分中小型矿场，由于币值下跌，“挖矿”的收益无法弥补电费等硬性开支，只能无奈将矿机二手转卖清盘。而一年前售价高达2万一台的矿机，二手转让价仅为1000多元。 Some small and medium-sized mining sites located in Xinjiang, the interior, etc., are known to have been unable to make up for hard expenses such as electricity, owing to the fall in the value of the currency, and to have had no chance of reselling the machines to clean up. A year ago, the cost of the second-hand transfer was just over 1,000. 另外，11月20日，有算力托管平台发出清盘公告。例如，一家名为算力投的平台表示，由于蚂蚁S9合约自2018年11月7日至2018年11月16日已连续十日无法支付管理费、电费。根据《算力投算力服务协议》，如若连续十天合约收益不足以支付管理费、电费时，算力合约即自动终止。 In addition, on 20 November, the Arithmetic Hosting Platform issued a clear-cut announcement. For example, a platform called Arithmetic Throw said that the Arithmetic Contract could not pay management fees and electricity charges for 10 consecutive days, from 7 November 2018 to 16 November 2018. 而在微博、朋友圈、比特币论坛等平台，币圈炒家也是“哀鸿遍野”，有资深玩家表示自己的资产已亏损85%以上，宣布“破产”。 On other platforms, such as microblogging, the circle of friends, the Bitcoin Forum, currency-circumstancers are also “worshipful”, with senior players declaring their assets to have lost more than 85 per cent of their assets and declaring them “insolvency”. 区块链概念股“遭殃” 与此同时，与区块链相关的个股也受到了不少冲击。 At the same time, the units associated with the block chain were hit by a number of shocks. 最先受到冲击的是美国芯片市场。上周五，美国芯片公司英伟达(Nvidia)股票一天蒸发230亿美元，暴跌18.76%，创下10年来最大单日跌幅。另一家主流芯片制造商AMD，股价在周一重挫11%。 The first hit was the US chip market. Last Friday, the US chip company, Nvidia, evaporated $23 billion a day, dropping 18.76%, the largest single-day fall in 10 years. Creative Planning公司总裁兼联席首席投资官Peter Mallouk表示，英伟达股价下跌，反映出加密货币推动需求的未来已经破灭当然。 Peter Mallouk, President and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Creative Planning, stated that the decline in stock prices in British Weida reflected the collapse of the future of demand for cryptographic currency pushers. 国内市场上，比特币的急剧下挫也使A股相关概念股跟着遭殃，股价受连累的公司不在少数。 In the domestic market, the sharp fall of Bitcoin also affected the A share of the related concept shares, with few companies suffering from the price of the shares. 从周涨跌幅看，区块链板块内79只股票仅8只实现上涨，下跌个股达到90%。 In terms of the weekly increase and drop, only 8 of the 79 shares in the block chain were able to rise, a decline of 90 per cent. 比特币或将进入熊市 bitcoin or will enter Bear City 根据Searchain.io数据分析，比特币价格最近30天以来的走势，与之前最相似的历史阶段是2014年7月20至2014年8月18日，这两个时间段的日线级别趋势相似度达到了93.42%，而2014年7月20日后，是持续一年多的熊市。 According to a data analysis by Searchain.io, the trend in Bitcoin prices over the last 30 days, the most similar historical period, from 20 July 2014 to 18 August 2014, was 93.42 per cent similar to the trend in the line levels of the two periods, compared with the city of Bears, which continued for more than a year after 20 July 2014. 彭博资讯分析师麦克隆则警告称，加密货币下跌势头可能会变得更糟，预测比特币价格可能还会蒸发70%的市值，跌穿1500美元关口。 Bloomberg's information analyst, McLon, warned that the decline in encrypt currency could become even worse, predicting that bitcoin prices could evaporate by 70 per cent of the market value and fall through the $1,500 threshold. 数字货币资深分析师肖磊指出，比特币处在大熊市当中，不进则退，没有根本性的利好，是无法支撑现有价格的，因为比特币本身无法产生收益，如果没有接棒者，存量市场的抛售几乎是一个注定的行为，不确定的只是会在什么时间抛售的问题。 The Senior Digital Currency Analyst Shaw pointed out that Bitcoin was in the big bear market, either in or out, without fundamental benefits, and could not support existing prices, because Bitcoin itself could not produce gains and, without a sticker, the stock market was almost doomed to sell, and it was not certain when it would be sold. 本文仅供投资者参考，不构成投资建议。 is for investors only and does not constitute an investment proposal. 点击右上角，分享朋友圈↗ Click the top right corner to share the circle of friends. 知识共享，财富共赢！ Knowledge-sharing, wealth-winning! 你 会 喜 欢 ♪ You'll be happy ♪ ♪/ strong ♪ 财经热点 双11品牌榜?|?社保降费?|?最严停复牌制度?|?科创板?|?印花税?|? Two 11 brands? ♪ Social security payments ♪ ♪ top-heavy card system ♪ ♪ creative board ♪ ♪ stamp duty ♪ ♪ stamp duty ♪ 大盘直击 Big direct-fire 创业板?|?*ST长生?|?中弘股份?|?恒立实业?|?6大主力Q3布局?|? 点击“阅读原文”下载官方APP Click Read Original to Download Official APP （来源：东方财富网财富号的财富号 2018-11-23 19:13） [点击查看原文] (Source: [click on original] 本文作者可以追加内容哦 !
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