前言:
Foreword:
前段时间,全世界最大的加密数字货币衍生品BitMEX平台推出了ETHUSD的永续合约,合约上线不久即成为了目前市面上最具流动性的以太坊交易对。从网站提供的数据可以看出,目前24小时的交易量在5400万张左右的合约(合1亿美金左右、约40万ETH的交易规模),大约是Binance和Bitfinex现货市场交易量之和。评价一个衍生品产品成功与否最重要的指标之一就是流动性,从这个角度来看,ETHUSD已经算是成功的了。
During the previous period, the world’s largest encrypted digital derivative BitMEX platform launched the ETHUSD permanent contract, which soon became the most mobile e-Taiwan deal on the market. Data from the website show that the current 24-hour deal is about 54 million contracts (about $100 million in volume, about 400,000 in size) and is about the sum of the transactions in Binance and Bitfinex spot markets. One of the most important indicators for evaluating the success of a derivative product is mobility, and from this point of view ETHUSD is already a success.
很多读过我前一篇BitMEX教程的朋友都知道如何利用衍生品来进行比特币的投机、套利、或对冲,于是也想用同样的方法来玩ETHUSD,然而却发现这玩意跟比特币永续合约完全不一样,因此在这里我来带大家好好了解下这个合约。
第一章:BitMEX上的ETHUSD是一个Quanto(双币种合约)
Chapter I: ETHUSD on BitMEX is a Quanto
和Okex的以太坊期货不同,OK上的以太期货是一个以太坊的美元倒数合约,而ETHUSD是quanto合约(双币种合约)。
Unlike Okex's Etheria futures, the Ether futures are a down payment contract and ETHUSD is a quanto contract (double-currency contract).
所谓美元倒数合约,是指以某个以美元计价的标的,但是结算用的是该标的本身。因为盈亏的公式是倒数(如下图),因而被称为『美元倒数合约』。BitMEX上的比特币永续合约(XBTUSD)和比特币期货、Okex上的比特币、以太坊、EOS等期货都属于这个范畴。
The dollar contract refers to a dollar-denominated target, but the settlement is based on itself . Because the profit-and-loss formula is the count-down (see figure below), it is called the `dollar-down contract'. The bitcoin contract (XBUSD) on BitMEX and the Bitcoin futures, the bitcoin on Okex, the ETA, EOS, etc. fall into this category.
而quanto(双币种合约)则是指以某个以A货币计价的标的,结算用的却是B货币。比如BitMEX推出的以太坊永续合约ETHUSD,就是ETH用美元(USD)计价,而最终用比特币(XBT)结算。
And the quanto (double-currency contract) refers to a price A currency , and the settlement is in B currency. , like the ETHUSD of the Etherms introduced by BitMEX, is that the ETH is denominated in United States dollars (USD) and ultimately settled in bitcoin (XBT).
第二章:剖析ETHUSD双币种合约
Chapter II: Diagnosis of ETHUSD Bicurrency Contract
用户在做多或做某空标A时一般会问的第一个问题是:我到底做多/空了多少个A?若用美元倒数合约,如做多/空比特币的话,那么这个问题的答案会很直观地显示在委托价值那一栏(见下图)。举例来说,如果我在6480.5美元的价位上做多8000张美金的比特币,就相当于用8000美金买入并持有1.2344个比特币。如果我在6480.5美元的价位上做空8000张美金的比特币,就相当于把1.2344个比特币在6480.5美元的价位上卖掉,持有8000美元的现金。
The first question that users usually ask when they do more or do a blank A is: How many As do I make? The answer to this question would be very straightforward in the column of commission value if I made a penultimate dollar contract, such as multi-bitcoin (see figure below). For example, if I made $8,000 more at $6480.5, it would be equivalent to buying and holding 1.2344 bitcoins at $8,000. If I made $8,000 more at $6480.5, the answer would be like selling 1.234 bitcoins at $6480.5 in cash .
在ETHUSD双币种合约这里,由于结算货币既不是USD也不是ETH,而是XBT。因而要搞清楚这个问题,得进行一番计算,因为这涉及到三个币种(比特币美元的汇率、以太坊美元的汇率、以及比特币以太坊的汇率)之间的换算。
Here in the ETHUSD double-currency contract, because the settlement currency is neither USD nor ETH, but XBT. To figure this out, a calculation has to be made because it involves the conversion of three currencies (bitcoin, dollar, currency and currency).
首先,注意到上图仓位的单位和美元倒数合约不同,由USD变为了Cont。在这里,一个Cont代表的意思是『每1美元的比特币乘数』,根据BitMEX的官方规定(下图图1),1 Cont=100 Satoshi(一百万分之一比特币)。因此,翻译成人话的意思就是:ETH兑美元的价格若增加1美元,合约的比特币价值就增加百万分之一个比特币。ETH兑美元的价格若减少1美元,合约的比特币价值就减少百万分之一个比特币。因此,可以很轻易地得出『合约的比特币价值与以太坊兑美元的价值呈线性关系』这一结论(下图图2)。
First of all, it is noted that the unit of the above-figured location and the dollar inverted contract were changed from USD to Cont. Here, a Kont representative means "bit currency multipliers per $1", according to the official rules of BitMEX (figure 1 below), 1 Cont=100 Satoshi (one million bitcoins per million). Thus, translated into human words means that if the price of ETH is increased by one dollar, the contract's bitcoin value is increased by one million bitcoins. If the price of ETH is reduced by one dollar, the contract's bitcoin value is reduced by one bitcoins by one million. Thus, it is easy to draw the conclusion that `the contract's bitcoin value is linear in relation to the dollar' (figure 2 below). >
图1. 计算公式
Figure 1. Calculating formulae
图2. 以太坊永续合约的比特币价值/盈亏与ETH兑美元价格之间呈线性关系
Figure 2. Linear relationship between the Bitcoin value/loss/loss on the ETH-United States dollar contract
因此,如果你要回答『我到底做空/做多了多少个ETH』这个问题,你得先计算出仓位的比特币价值,然后再通过比特币和以太坊之间的汇率换算出该仓位的ETH的价值。举例说明,假如你在230.9的价位做多(空)了1000 Cont的ETHUSD,就相当于我做多(空)了价值0.2309比特币的以太坊(230.9*1000*10^-7)。假如开仓那时比特币和以太坊的汇率为0.03,则可以算出该仓位价值7.6966个以太坊(0.2309/0.03)。
So, if you're going to answer the question, "How many more ETHs have I made?", you have to calculate the value of the bitcoin in the warehouse, and then convert the value of the ETH in the warehouse through the exchange rate between bitcoin and the taupulega. For example, if you did more than 1000 cont ETHUSD in the 230.9 bid, it's equivalent to the amount of 0.209 bitcoins in the pit (230.9*10000*10-7). If Bitcoin and 0.03 in the taupulega exchange rate were to open, then it would be possible to calculate the value of the spot in the pit 7.6966 taupules (0.2309/0.03).
第三章:用ETHUSD只能做投机,不能做对冲
Chapter III: ETHUSD can only be used for speculation and not for hedge
上一章我们对ETHUSD进行了剖析,知道了这个双币种合约在开仓那一刻,锁定的是以太坊在某个美元上比特币的价值,而以太坊的价值是会根据ETH/BTC之间汇率的变化而变化的。因此假设你手上有以太坊,想通过ETHUSD对冲风险的话,则会遇到大坑。
In the previous chapter, we had an analysis of ETHUSD, and it became clear that at the start of the two-currency contract, it was locked in the value of bitcoin on a dollar, and that the value of ETH/BTC would vary depending on the exchange rate between ETH/BTC. So assumes that you have Ether, and if you want to hedge ETHUSD, you run into a big hole.
我们通过一个例子来更详细地说明:如果你手上有100个ETH并希望对冲这个风险敞口,那么你用BitMEX上的ETHUSD进行以下步骤:
Let us explain in more detail by way of an example: if you have 100 ETHs in your hand and want to hedge this risk exposure, then you use ETHUSD on BitMEX to take the following steps:
通过ETH/XBT的汇率,将100个ETH换算成等值的比特币价值。为了计算方便,假设ETH/XBT=0.05。计算可得100个ETH=5 XBT;
For ease of calculation, assume ETH/XBT = 0.05. 100 ETH = 5 XBT are available for calculation;
假设你希望在200美金的价格做空ETH,那么根据公式(下图)可以计算出你需要做空2*10^6/200=10000 张合约;
If you want to empty ETH at $200, then you can calculate from the formula (see figure below) that you need to make 2*106/200=10,000 contracts;
在合约数上填上10000,在价格上填上200,点击做空,成交后即持有价值5XBT的空头仓位,按照当前假设的ETH/BTC汇率,等于-100ETH的空头仓位;
Fill in 10,000 on the number of contracts, fill in 200 on the price, click empty, hold empty warehouses with a value of 5XBT, equal to -100 ETH at the currently assumed ETH/BTC rate;
这3步完成后,看似已经把手上的100个ETH波动的风险对冲掉了。然而,这只是开仓时候那一刻仓位以太坊的价值,因此只要比特币兑美元的价格发生变化,整个仓位的美元价值和以太坊价值就变了!比如,假设在上个例子中,在开仓后下一秒,ETH兑美元的价格不变,而ETH/BTC 从0.05涨到0.06,那么这时候仓位的以太坊价值就从-100ETH,变成了-83.33 ETH,美元价值就从原来的20000美元,变成16666美元。
After these three steps have been completed, it appears that the risk of 100 ETH fluctuations on your hands has washed away. However, this is only the time when the warehouse was opened and the value of the warehouse was in the courthouse, so as long as the price of bitcoin against the United States dollar changed, the value of the entire warehouse in United States dollars and the value of Etheria changed. For example, assuming that in the previous example, the price of ETH against the United States dollar remained constant the second after the opening of the warehouse, while the price of ETH/BTC rose from 0.05 to 0.06, then the value of the warehouse was in the courthouse from -100ETH to -83.33 ETH, and the value of the dollar changed from US$ 20,000 to US$ 16666 .
BitMEX官方博客上对这个现象有着非常详细的阐述,我将原文贴在下面(原文链接https://blog.bitmex.com/zh_cn-hedging-a-quanto-perpetual-swap/ ,需挂梯子),建议大家仔细认真地阅读。我把官方提供的excel表格上传到了百度云盘,供大家下载研究:https://pan.baidu.com/s/1pz-uLKEuO63b6cgRxOXSag
This phenomenon is described in great detail in the official BitMEX blog, and I have posted the original text below (available at https://blog.bitmex.com/zh_cn-hedging-a-quanto-perpetual-swap/), suggesting that you should read it carefully and carefully. I have uploaded the official Excel form to the 100-degree cloud disk for downloading study: https://pan.baidu.com/s/1pz-uLKEuO63b6cgxOXSaga.
假设如下:
Assumptions are as follows:
符号: ETHUSD
乘数: 0.000001 XBT
ETHUSD 价格: 500 美元
.BETH (ETH/USD 现货指数): 500 美元
.BXBT (XBT/USD 现货指数): 10,000 美元
Symbol: ETHUSD
multiplier: 0.00001 XBT
ETHUSD price: $500
.BETH (ETH/USD spot index): $500
.BXBT (XBT/USD spot index): $10,000
情景一:做空 ETHUSD 并对冲
Scenario I: empty ETHUSD and flush
您做空了 10 万张 ETHUSD 合约。
You made 100,000 ETHUSD contracts empty.
首先让我们计算您的仓位价值:
Let's start by calculating your location value:
XBT 价值=$500 * 0.000001 XBT * -100,000=-50 XBT
ETH 价值=XBT 价值 / [ .BETH / .BXBT ]=-1,000 ETH
XBT value = $500 * 0.000001 XBT *- 100,000 =-50 XBT
ETH value = XBT value / [.BETH/.BXBT] =-1,000 ETH
接下来,您通过以现货价格购买 1,000 ETH 来对冲您的 ETH/USD 仓位。假设您可以用与 .BETH 的指数匹配的价格购买。
Next, you can hedge your ETH/USD position by buying 1,000 ETHs at spot prices. Assuming that you can buy them at prices that match the index of.BETH.
您已经为标的货币进行了对冲。此时,您的仓位是完全对冲的。但是,随着 ETHUSD 价格的变化,您在 ETHUSD 的盈亏为 XBT,而您的 ETH 对冲仓位的盈亏则为美元。让我们看看下列两个极端的例子。
You have hedged the currency. At this point, your position is completely hedged. But, as the prices of ETHUSD change, your gain or loss at ETHUSD is XBT, while your ETH gains or losses at TH are dollars. Let's see the following two extreme examples.
例一: .BETH 涨而 .BXBT 跌
Example one:.BETH rises and.BXBT falls
.BETH 和 ETHUSD 涨至 750 美元
.BETH and ETHUSD up to $750
.BXBT 跌至 5,000 美元
.BXBT down to $5,000
ETHUSD 盈亏=( ETHUSD 平仓价格 - ETHUSD 开仓价格) * 乘数 * 合约数量=-25 XBT ,美元价值:-125,000 美元
ETHUSD profit/loss = (ETHUSD level - ETHUSD opening price) * Multiplier * Contract = -25 XBT value: -$125,000
ETH 现货美元盈亏=( .BETH 平仓价格 - .BETH 开仓价格) * ETH 数量=250,000 美元
ETH spot dollar gain/loss = (.BETH silo price -.BETH opening price) * ETH quantity = $250,000
净美元盈亏=ETHUSD XBT 美元盈亏 + ETH 现货美元盈亏=+125,000 美元
Net dollar gain/loss = ETHUSD XBT United States dollar gain/loss + ETH current United States dollar gain/loss = + $125,000
在这个例子里面, XBT 和 ETH 的美元价值之间的相关性是 -1 。当他们的价格在一种完全负相关的方向移动时,您就赚了钱。
In this example, the correlation between the dollar value of XBT and ETH is -1. When their prices move in a completely negative related direction, you make money.
例二: .BETH 涨而 .BXBT 也涨
Example two:.BETH up and.BXBT up
.BETH 和 ETHUSD 涨至 750 美元
.BETH and ETHUSD up to $750
.BXBT 涨至 15,000 美元
.BXBT up to US$ 15,000
ETHUSD 盈亏=-25 XBT,美元价值:-375,000 美元
ETH 现货美元盈亏=250,000 美元
净美元盈亏=-125,000 美元
ETHUSD gain/loss = -25 XBT, US dollar value: -$375,000
ETH spot dollar gain/loss = $250,000
net dollar gain/loss = -$125,000
在这个例子里面, XBT 和 ETH 的美元价值相关性是 +1 。当他们的价格在一种完全正相关的方向移动时,您就亏钱了。
In this example, the dollar value correlation between XBT and ETH is +1. When their prices move in a completely related direction, you lose money.
当相关性下降时,做空 ETHUSD + 对冲仓位会录得收益,而当相关性上涨时,该仓位便会录得损失。由于 ETHUSD 与 .BETH 的基差是平坦的,开仓价格已经假设了两个加密币之间的相关性为零。
When the correlation drops, ETHUSD+ captures the benefit of the stubble position, and when the correlation increases, the position records the loss. Since the base difference between ETHUSD and.BETH is flat, the opening price has assumed a zero correlation between the two encrypted currencies.
情景二:做多 ETHUSD 并对冲
Scenario two: Do more ETHUSD and flush
您做多了 100,000 张 ETHUSD 合约。
You did more than 100,000 ETHUSD contracts.
首先让我们计算您的仓位价值:
Let's start by calculating your location value:
XBT 价值=$500 * 0.000001 XBT * 100,000=50 XBT
ETH 价值=XBT 价值 / [ .BETH/.BXBT ]=1,000 ETH
XBT value = $500 * 0.000001 XBT * 100,000 = 50 XBT
ETH value = XBT value / [.BETH/.BXBT] = 1,000 ETH
接下来,您通过以现货价格卖空 1,000 ETH 来对冲您的 ETH/USD 仓位。假设您可以用与当前 .BETH 指数价格匹配的价格购买,并且无需付出 ETH 的借贷成本。
Next, you can hedge your ETH/USD warehouse by selling 1,000 ETHs at spot prices. Assuming that you can buy them at prices that match the current.BTH index prices, you do not have to pay the ETH’s borrowing cost.
您已经对冲了标的货币的风险,您的仓位也是完全对冲的。但是,随着 ETHUSD 价格的变化,您在 ETHUSD 的盈亏为 XBT ,而您持有的 ETH 对冲的盈亏则为美元。
You have already hedged the currency of the bid, and your position is completely hedged. But, as the ETHUSD price changes, your gain and loss at ETHUSD is XBT, while the gain and loss on the ETH hedge you hold is US dollars.
让我们看看两个极端的例子。
Let us look at two extreme examples.
例一: .BETH 涨而 .BXBT 跌
Example one:.BETH rises and.BXBT falls
.BETH 和 ETHUSD 涨至750美元
.BETH and ETHUSD up to $750
.BXBT 跌至 5,000 美元
.BXBT down to $5,000
ETHUSD 盈亏=25 XBT,美元价值:125,000 美元
ETH 现货美元盈亏=-250,000 美元
净美元盈亏=-125,000 美元
ETHUSD = 25 XBT, dollar value: $125,000
ETH spot dollar gain/loss = $250,000
net dollar gain/loss = $125,000
在这个例子中, XBT 和 ETH的美元值之间的相关性是 -1 。他们的价格以一种完全负相关的方向移动,您就亏钱了。
In this example, the correlation between the dollar value of XBT and ETH is -1. Their prices move in a completely negative related direction, and you lose money.
例二: .BETH 涨而 .BXBT 也涨
Example two:.BETH up and.BXBT up
.BETH 和 ETHUSD 涨至 750 美元
.BETH and ETHUSD up to $750
.BXBT 涨至 15,000 美元
.BXBT up to US$ 15,000
ETHUSD 盈亏=25 XBT,美元价值:375,000 美元
ETH 现货美元盈亏=-250,000 美元
净美元盈亏=125,000 美元
ETHUSD gain/loss = 25 XBT, US dollar value: $375,000
ETH spot dollar gain/loss = $250,000
net dollar gain/loss = $125,000
在这个例子中, XBT 和 ETH 的美元价值之间的相关性是 +1 。他们的价格以一种完全正相关的方向移动,您就赚了钱。
In this example, the correlation between the dollar value of XBT and ETH is +1. Their prices move in a completely relevant direction, and you earn money.
当相关性上涨时,做多 ETHUSD + 对冲仓位将获利,而当相关性下降时,它便会录得损失。由于 ETHUSD 与 .BETH 基差是平坦的,开仓价格已经假设了两个加密币之间的相关性为零。
When the correlation increases, more ETHUSD + hedges will be profitable, and when the correlation decreases, it will record a loss. Since the base difference between ETHUSD and.BETH is flat, the opening price has assumed a zero correlation between the two encrypted currencies.
下表总结了两种情况:
The following table summarizes two situations:
结论:
Conclusions:
ETHUSD双币种永续合约只适用于投机而不适合于对冲。
The ETHUSD dual-currency permanent contract only applies to speculation and is not suitable for hedges.
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