張向寧區塊鏈靜夜思系列二：比特幣價值規律解析

　　比特幣定義的自身挖礦和產出的機制，形成了一種自我價格提升。假定在某個較長階段中（四年以上），即使比特幣的整體算力成本投入保持不變，由於比特幣的產出機制是單位時間內產出越來越少（平均每四年減半），相應的單位比特幣的產出和獲得成本就將按照同樣周期翻倍。假定，即使隻有少數礦工，一直維持了比特幣的整體算力成本投入的持平（不下降），在比特幣整個100余年的發行周期中，一共33次發行減半（最后一次減到0，因此不納入計算）導致的產出算力成本上升是2的32次方=4,294,967,296，即接近43億倍的算力成本增長。這讓我們聯想起古代印度國王和棋王的有趣故事，在64格的棋盤上，國王從1粒麥子開始，每天賞賜棋王多一倍的麥子，開始不明就裡的國王，最后變成了不懂數學的悲劇（故事內容不贅述，請自行查找）。同樣，比特幣礦工初期的一份投入，可以等同於末期的43億份投入，這是多麼聰明的一個以小博大的邏輯。在這裡，我們把算力成本不變的情況下，僅由於發行規則導致的每四年一次的產出成本上升，稱為“中本的成本提升”。

It is assumed that in a longer period (more than four years), even if the whole of the Bitcoin’s computing cost input remains constant, since the Bitcoin’s output is less and less in time (on average by half every four years), the corresponding unit’s output and acquisition costs will be doubled in the same cycle. Assuming that even a small number of miners have maintained the balance of the Bitcoin’s overall calculating cost input (not falling) for more than four years, a total of thirty-three less (last down to zero) in the entire cycle of the Bitcoins, and that the cost of the production and acquisition of the Bitcoins will be increased by two times =4,294,966, or nearly 43 billion times more, this is why the King of India and the King of Chesss will be reminded of the interesting story of their growth (last down to zero, therefore uncounted), and that the cost of the King’s profit will be reduced by two times more than the cost of the King’s discovery of the last four.

　　上述討論以“算力成本”為基數，是為了簡化計算。因為如果以算力為基數，則需要把算力換算成當期成本，而隨著時間的推移，未來算力和成本之間的換算率會發生變化，這牽扯到摩爾定律、洛克定律等復雜的規則，及這些定律是否准確。因此，以“算力的投入成本”來開始計算，進而討論其“產出成本”，則簡化了計算，簡單直接地看清了比特幣的發行規則本質。同時，交易手續費（transaction fees）也會隨著比特幣發行的進行，而在礦工收入中從最初的無足輕重，轉化成后期越來越大的比重。至於交易手續費水平與礦工算力之間的計算關系，完全是獨立於以上計算的另一套運算機制。綜合來看，交易手續費的存在能夠有一定的平抑“中本的成本上升”的效果，因為交易手續費機制可以從某種角度上等效於對比特幣的回收和再發行。這種手續費成本模型的曲線，與“中本的成本提升”曲線會有一個相交處，從而從早中期的“中本的成本提升”為主因的發行階段，逐漸轉化為中后期以手續費成本模型為主因的發行階段。但由於比特幣極低的效率導致的手續費飆升，帶來大量的詬病，手續費的規則也在比特幣的版本迭代過程中不停修訂，使手續費規則存在相當大的不確定性，因此在這裡沒有引入該方面的計算。

The discussion is based on “costs of power” and is intended to simplify the calculation. Because, if the calculation is based on the amount of power, the calculation needs to be changed to the current cost, and as time passes, the rate of exchange between future capacity and cost changes, which is linked to the complex rules of Moor’s law, Locker’s law, and whether these rules are correct. Thus, the calculation needs to be based on the “cost of the factor” and to discuss the “cost of the product” and its “cost” between the level of the transaction and the power of the miner. In the meantime, the transaction costs (transaction Fees) will change.

　　在實際情況中，在短周期中，可能會有更多新增算力加入市場，也可能會由於任何偶然因素導致算力階段性或暫時的大規模退出市場，從而導致算力的無規則波動（上升和下降）。但是，在“長周期”之下，僅僅依靠少數算力投入成本（例如比特幣誕生之初），即可保持的這種天量的產出成本整體上漲趨勢，造就了比特幣一級市場價格永恆上升的基本趨勢。在其發展上升期，例如隨著比特幣概念的傳播擴散，比特幣的整體算力投入也會顯著提升，會在“中本的成本提升”的基礎上進行疊加，從而導致比特幣的價格提升曲線更加陡峭。我們把由於整體算力成本提升（或下降）導致的產出成本上升，定義為“算源的成本提升”（或下降）。

In fact, in a short cycle, there may be more added value to the market, and it may result from any incidental factors leading to arithmetic or temporary large-scale withdrawal from the market, leading to an unbridled wave of power (up and down). However, under a “long-cycle” period, only a small amount of input costs (e.g., at the birth of Bitcoins) can be maintained, leading to an overall upward trend in production costs and a fundamental upward trend in the price of Bitcoins. During the period of growth, such as the spread of the Bitcoast concept, the entire weight of the Bitcoins will also increase significantly, adding to the base of the “medium cost rise” and leading to a steeper price increase of the Special Currency.

　　目前，比特幣產出減半周期隻進入到第三期，發生過兩次減半，這相當於印度國王給棋王獎勵麥子時的第三個象棋格子，此時這種設計規則的效果仍舊不夠明顯，如同印度國王在第三天隻需要付出4粒麥子，而無法感受到“指數”在后期帶來的效果。

At present, the half-cycle of Bitcoins production is only in phase 3, with two and a half reductions, which is equivalent to the third chess grid when the King of India rewarded the King of Chess with wheat, at a time when the effects of the design rules are still not clear, as if the King of India had to pay four wheat on the third day without being able to feel the effects of the “indicators” in the later stages.

　　現在我們更進一步，細觀一下在某個短周期內（數月直至四年內），在周期產出恆定情況下，比特幣的供求價值規律。

Now, let's go a step further and look more closely at the rules of supply and demand in a short period of time (months to four years) and in a time-bound cycle of production.

　　先看看一級市場，即挖礦和產出市場。比特幣的一個重要特征是，其產出速度是固定的，並不因為生產規模的擴大而擴大，生產規模的縮小而縮小，這恰恰是比特幣並非商品的一個重要表現。普通商品的市場規律，是因為某商品生產有利可圖而吸引更多生產，從而擴大了供給，導致該商品供大於求，市場價格下跌，進而利潤減少或消失，使部分生產商退出市場，最終達到供需的動態平衡，這是市場經濟環境下的商品價格的自動調節機制。擴大生產就可以增加供給的這個規律，甚至是適用於黃金、石油等資產和大宗商品的。反觀比特幣，當比特幣價值處於上升通道，會刺激更多產能投入運營，但卻完全不能增加供給，反而增加的是需求。在比特幣經濟中，更多的產能投入運行，反而直接推高比特幣的一級市場價格，進而吸引更多的產能投入，引導一級市場價格更大地上升，形成反復放大的正反饋，直至某個偶然因素打斷該過程。而當比特幣價值處於下降通道，則是相逆的過程。這就是比特幣市場價格在短周期內波動異常激烈的最重要的第一個重要原因。

One important feature of the Bitcoin is that it is produced at a fixed rate, not as a result of the expansion of the production scale, but as a result of a shrinking of the production scale, which is an important demonstration of the price of the commodities that it is not a commodity. The rules of the market for ordinary commodities are that it attracts more output because it is profitable for a commodity to produce, so that the commodity is supplied more, so that the price of the market falls, so that the price of the market falls, so that some of the producers is reduced or lost, and so that the demand of some of the producers is removed from the market, and so that the demand balance of the supply is eventually reduced, but it is not possible to increase the price of the goods in the market’s economic environment, but it is not possible to increase the price of the commodity, and even the price of the price of the market is higher than the price of the market, and the price of the price of the market is higher than the price of the price of the market, and the price of the price of the market is higher than the price of the price of the market, and the price of the price of the market is higher.

　　再看看二級市場，即比特幣的普通買方和賣方市場，也就是加密貨幣“交易所”所服務的市場。比特幣的二級市場價格，是市場上買入比特幣所形成的瞬時需求，和存量賣出+新產出賣出所形成的瞬時供給之間形成的價格。

And look at the second-tier market, the regular buyers and sellers of bitcoins, the market served by the encrypted currency “exchange.” The second-tier market price of bitcoins is the instant demand created by the purchase of bitcoins on the market, and the price of instantaneous supplies generated by stock sales plus sales of new products.

　　二級市場的買方需求，其第一來源是出於對比特幣的持有需求，例如投機、投資、收藏等，第二則是來源於使用比特幣進行使用和流通的需求。在比特幣發展的早期歷史中，比特幣的買方需求首先來源於持有需求，而出於對使用和流通的需求，早期是很匱乏的（比如使用比特幣買了一個披薩，或者黑金、灰金的流動）。2013年出現的ICO，開始首次出現融幣行為，制造了對幣的新增使用需求，導致了2014年比特幣的第一次沖高，之后由於大部分ICO項目發展不暢，比特幣價格又大幅下跌。但在第一波ICO浪潮之中,孵化和孕育出了一個少有的成功案例——以太坊。以太坊提出和實現了智能合約機制，帶動區塊鏈進入“智能合約”時代，使Token發行變得異常簡單，這大幅降低了ICO的門檻，導致2017年中ICO的大爆發，融資行為變為大規模的融幣行為，才導致對幣的流通使用需求再次突然大幅激增，這正是近期比特幣價格出現又一次大幅飆升、創造了新高的真正原因。隨著ICO行為受到抑制，目前比特幣的價格出現了一定的回落，也正是反應了這種市場狀況。二級市場的整體運行規律符合一般市場的供求規律，即供和求的平衡。

In the early history of bitcoin development, the demand for bitcoins originated first in demand, and in demand for use and circulation, early in time (such as a pizza with bitcoin, or the flow of black gold, grey gold, etc.). The ICO that appeared in 2013 began to take hold of coins for the first time, created a demand for currency for the first time, led to the first increase in the use and circulation of bitcoins in 2014, followed by a sharp decline in the prices of bitcoins. In the first wave of the ICO, the incubation and gestation of a small success story – too far in the future.

　　“產出價值”（一級市場）和“市場價值”（二級市場）並非隨時吻合。當產出價值高於市場價值，挖得的幣賣不出去或者虧損，部分礦池由於入不敷出而停產，幣的生產受到抑制，一級市場價格降低，簡單邏輯下，在多數情況下會引導二級市場價格也降低。當產出價值低於市場價值時，挖得的幣原則上一定是有利潤的，一方面會吸引更多礦池投入運營，導致一級市場價格上升，簡單邏輯下，在多數情況下會引導二級市場價格上升﹔另一方面二級市場中幣的持有者會惜售，因為預期幣值會繼續升高，從而導致市場上幣的供應量減少，這將進一步推高二級市場價值。這是比特幣市場波動異常激烈的第二個重要原因。當市場處於均衡狀態，挖礦的成本，正好抵消賣出幣的收入，相當於將運算能力+電費轉換成某種可全球流通的價值。實際觀察中，比特幣的市場價值在高於產出價值並存在價差的情況下，也出現過整體算力下降的階段，具體原因有待細觀。

When the value of the output is higher than the value of the market, the value of the money is not sold or lost, some of the deposits are shut down because they are not available, the price of the money is reduced, and the price of the first market is reduced, and the price of the second market is reduced by a simple logic. When the value of the output is lower than the value of the market, it must be profitable to dig the currency as it is. On the one hand, it attracts more deposits into the market, leads to higher prices for the first market and, on the other hand, to higher prices for the second market and, on the other hand, to higher prices for the second market; and, on the other hand, the price of the second market is higher than the price for the second price, which is higher than the price for the second price of the market.

　　比特幣還有被挖完的一天，那時，比特幣的價值，將失去一個所謂的產出成本支撐，隻剩下了一個“歷史產出成本”的支撐。礦工當然仍舊會獲得交易手續費，而且，根據測算，早在比特幣被全部挖完前，礦工的交易手續費收入將會在某個時刻超過系統獎勵的比特幣收入，從而使礦工獲得持續的激勵，繼續充當比特幣生態當中的基石。當然，我不知道將來的人類（按測算是2140年）如何看待“歷史產出成本”這件事。比如，據說冰箱剛被發明出來的時候，可以換一輛汽車，但是如果你保存了當時的一台老冰箱，現在可能就一文不值了，但是汽車若是成為了老爺車，就還挺值錢。同時，當比特幣發行結束，維持整個比特幣系統整體算力（礦機）繼續運轉的激勵和動力，變成了比特幣系統的交易手續費，此時，如果全體算力仍舊很高，也就意味著整個比特幣體系的運轉成本很大，交易手續費總額仍很高，這對於一個交易系統來講，是一個負面的要素，其競爭力會受到極大挑戰，因為此時的比特幣體系，和一個在一啟動就將全部存幣發放出去的系統已沒有差異。如果這個問題不能解決，該價值交易系統將可能遭遇運營成本較低的其他加密貨幣系統的競爭而被淘汰。當然，也許比特幣在被挖完很早之前，就已經經歷整體算力的大幅下降，當完成最后的發幣時，整體運營成本已經相對較低，但這也同時意味著該系統已經不受追捧。

Bitcoins have a day to be dug up, and the value of bitcoins will be lost as a so-called production cost support, leaving behind a “historical cost” support. Miners will, of course, still be paid the transaction fee. For example, long before bitcoins are fully dug up, they will be paid the transaction fee, but if you save an old refrigerator at that time, it may be worthless, but if it becomes an old car, it will still be worth the price.

　　當然，所謂的挖礦工作，一個值得一提的情況是，在甚早期，當然在后來也一直存在，是由一些在線的機器空置時間的算力完成的，甚至，有很多“私活兒”的行為存在。有時礦工的主人是一些機房的技術管理人，他們將機房閑置的機器和網絡資源用於挖礦行為。他們完全沒有對應的產出成本，因為這種“私活兒”往往是背著機房的主人而私下進行的。從這個角度，其實部分比特幣產出的算力投入成本相當於零。后期，才出現了專門用於挖礦的礦機和礦池。

Of course, one thing worth mentioning about mining is that, at a very early stage, of course, it has also been there since then, and it has been done by a calculation of the amount of time that some machines empty on the line, or even by a lot of “private work”. Sometimes miners are the technology managers of some of the engine rooms, who use machines and network resources for mining. They have nothing to do with the cost of production, because this kind of “private work” is often carried out in private behind the owner of the engine room. From this perspective, some of the calculations produced by the special currency actually cost less than zero. It is only later that there are mine machines and ponds that are dedicated to mining.

　　作為第二個小結，比特幣創始人定義了在“長周期”之下永恆上升的“產出成本”。我們反復強調的是：這裡說的只是“產出成本”，后續會進一步討論“價值”。初期的一份算力投入，可以等效於末期的43億份算力投入。在“短周期”之下比特幣經濟中，因為產出速度是固定的，更多的產能投入，反而推高比特幣的一級市場價格，進而吸引更多的產能投入，引導一級市場價格更大幅上升，形成正反饋效應。二級市場的買方需求，其來源第一是出於對比特幣的持有需求，第二是來源於使用比特幣進行流通的需求。ICO的出現和爆發，導致對幣的流通使用需求突然大幅激增，造成了比特幣歷史中價格的兩次飆升。

As a second downside, Bitcoin’s founder defined the “product cost” that would rise forever under a “long-cycle” cycle. What we argue is that this is simply a “product cost”, followed by a further discussion of “values.” An initial calculation input could be equivalent to an end-of-life factor of 4.3 billion. Under a “short-cycle” economy, because output is fixed, more productive inputs are made, and higher than the first-level market price, attracting more productive inputs, leading to a sharp rise in the first-level market price, resulting in a positive and counterproductive response. The demand of the second-tier market comes first from the demand for the Bitcoins and, secondly, from the demand for the use of the Bitcoins. ICO’s appearances and booms have led to a sharp rise in the demand for circulation of the coins, resulting in two surges in prices over the history of the special currency.

　　寫到這裡，也許大家會想問，到底對比特幣及其他加密貨幣應該持正面還是負面的看法。回顧互聯網和移動互聯網的發展，過程是多麼類似，沒有那麼簡單的一白一黑，也不是簡單的騙局一詞所能概括。目前的市場中，不乏有人故弄玄虛、夸大其詞，也出現了利用ICO的規則缺失而魚目混珠、渾水摸魚的大量案例，更多的吃瓜群眾人則是雲裡霧裡、盲目跟風，但渾水之下，蘊藏著未被探明的未來。下一篇我們將對比特幣的屬性進行一些略帶主觀的分析，以期對加密貨幣的未來提供一些可供參考的預測。

Writing here, one might wonder whether there should be a positive or negative view of the Bitcoins and other encrypted currencies. Looking back at the development of the Internet and the mobile Internet, how similar it is, not so simple and black, nor is it a simple lie that can be summed up. In the current market, there is no shortage of preposterous, exaggeration, and there are a lot of cases in which the rules of the ICO are missing and the fish are mixed with the fish and the fish with the water, and more of the cucumber eaters are cloudy, blind and the wind, but under the water they hide an undetected future. The next article will be a brief analysis of the properties of the Bitcoins, with a view to providing some illustrative predictions about the future of the crypto.

　　作者簡介

author's brief

　　張向寧，中國第一代互聯網企業家，1995年創立萬網（www.net.cn），2009年被當時香港上市的阿裡巴巴集團所收購，成為“阿裡雲”的前身。現任青怡投資創始合伙人，是第十屆、第十一屆全國青聯委員，中國互聯網協會理事，北京師范大學校友企業家聯誼會副會長，華中科技大學（原華中理工大學）北京校友會副會長。

Zhang Xing, China’s first-generation Internet entrepreneur, founded in 1995 at www.net.cn, was bought in 2009 by the then-listed Ariba Group in Hong Kong, and became a precursor to the “Aribunal.” The current founder partner of Qing Yi’s investment, a member of the tenth and eleventh-ever All-China Youth Federation, a member of the China Inter-American Network Board, Vice-President of the Beijing Teacher Fan University Association of Alumni Entrepreneurs, and Vice-President of the Beijing Alumni Association of the Chinese University of Technology (formerly Chinese University of Technology).

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