比特币价格瞬间下跌400元 跌至7100元

2月8日上午，比特币价格一直在7500元徘徊，而下午坊间有消息传，央行召开闭门会议，约谈一些小比特币交易平台。受此消息影响，比特币价格在下午4时左右瞬间跌至7100元。

In the morning of 8 February, the price of Bitcoin was hovering at $7,500, while in the afternoon there was news that the central bank had closed its doors and interviewed a number of little bitcoin trading platforms. As a result of this information, the price of Bitcoin fell immediately to $7100 at around 4 p.m.

这次会议被看作是进入鸡年后，监管对比特币企业所采取的最新动作。市场调侃称，央行约请比特币喝茶。

The meeting was seen as the latest move to regulate the Bitcoin business after entering a chicken. The market says that the central bank has asked Bitcoin to drink tea.

北京青年报记者昨天致电一家中关村比特币公司，其高管态度谨慎地告诉记者，“因为没有参加会议，外界关于反洗钱的说法，不能确认。”

The director of the Beijing youth newspaper called a Chinese village of Bitcoin yesterday and carefully told the journalist & ldquao; because of the absence of the conference, the outside statements about anti-money laundering cannot be confirmed. & rdquao;

就在春节前，中国最大的比特币交易公司BTCC CEO兼联合创始人李启元向外界表示，在不久的未来，比特币将受到监管。“我不知道何时发生，但我知道它会发生。因为我认为比特币交易从根本上就需要被监管。”

Just before Spring, China’s largest Bitcoin trading company, BTCC CEO, and co-founder, Li Qiwon, indicated to the outside world that Bitcoin would be regulated in the near future. & ldquo; I don’t know when, but I know it will happen. Because I think that bitcoin transactions need to be regulated. & rdquao;

在北京青年报的近期采访中，多位比特币公司高管均认可“今年是比特币监管元年”的说法。

In a recent interview with the Beijing Youth News, several Bitcoin executives endorsed & ldquo; this is the year of Bitcoin Supervision & rdquo;

现象：比特币进入收费时代

phenomenon: Bitcoin into the fee age

自1月24日中午12点起，比特币正式进入收费时代。

From 12 noon on 24 January, Bitcoin officially entered the fee age.

1月22日晚间，国内三家比特币交易平台火币网、币行、比特币中国分别在各自官网发布通知，宣布自1月24日中午12点起开始收取交易服务费，交易服务费按照固定比例双向收取，按成交额的0.2%的固定费率收取。其中，火币网、币行还称，卖出收取人民币，买入收取比特币或莱特币。目的是为了进一步抑制投机，防止价格剧烈波动。

On the evening of 22 January, the three national Bitcoin trading platforms, the military currency network, the currency bank, and the Bitcoin China, each of which issued circulars on their respective official networks, announced that transaction services fees would be collected from 12 noon on 24 January, at a fixed rate of 0.2 per cent of the transaction value. Of these, they also stated that they would sell and collect renminbi and buy bitcoins or Lightcoins, in order to further curb speculation and prevent price volatility.

对于上述比特币平台收取交易服务费，知情人士对外界表示，平台收取手续费虽不是央行明确要求的，但是央行希望比特币交易的活跃度能够降下来。根据央行监管要求，三大交易平台此前均已停止融资融币业务。

With respect to the above-mentioned Bitcoin platform, informed sources have indicated to the outside world that, while the platform is not explicitly required by the central bank, the central bank hopes that the activity of the Bitcoin transaction will be reduced. According to central bank regulations, the three trading platforms have previously stopped financing the money-melting business.

趋势：市场在等待央行结论

Trends: The market awaits the central bank's conclusion

自今年1月初开始的一轮监管调查，目前是否已经结束，最后处理结果如何，一直是市场关注的热点。

The round of regulatory surveys, which began in early January of this year, has now been concluded and the final outcome has been a hot spot for market interest.

市场倾向于认为，监管调查的内在逻辑，就是想引导和规范比特币为首的数字货币交易。

Markets tend to believe that the inherent logic of regulatory investigations is to guide and regulate digital currency transactions led by bitcoin.

ROCKMINER(小强矿机)联合创始人林志鹏（Alex）告诉北青报记者，据其个人经验判断，这次央行一定会有个结论。其他限制很难说，“理论上应该罚款”。他同时表示，“处罚不会对各大平台伤筋动骨，禁止交易更不可能”。

ROCKMINER, the co-founder of the Little Power Miner, Alex, told North Green newspaper journalists that, according to his personal experience, the Central Bank would reach a conclusion. Other restrictions are hard to say, &ldquao; in theory, should be fined & & rdquao; at the same time, he said & & & ldquao; the penalty would not be severed on the main platforms, and it would be even more impossible to ban trade & & rdquao;

成交量将大幅降低。中关村一家比特币公司高管表示，收取交易费之后，“我估计交易量会只有现在的十分之一，然后量化高频机器人基本都消失；而且这将成为常态”。他表示，这次监管向市场释放的信号，自己的理解就是“挤出投机泡沫，接下来币价受内在应用的推动”。

A manager of Bitcoin in Central Kwanmura said that &ldquo would charge a transaction fee; I estimate that the volume would be only one tenth of what it is now, and then quantify that the high-frequency robots would largely disappear; and that this would be the normal &rdquao; he said that the signal that the regulation would send to the market was “ and that the speculative bubble would be squeezed, and then the price would be driven by the built-in application of &rdquao.

量化交易将大受影响。一家量化交易公司负责人解释道，“零手续费是比特币量化交易的最大优势，各种投资策略都可以施展，如果开始收费，量化交易的收益肯定会受到影响。去年每个月基本有3%的收益，如果开始收费，这样的收益水平就会很惨。”

Quantified transactions will be seriously affected. The head of a quantitative trading firm explained that “ zero fees are the greatest advantage of Bitcoin quantitative transactions, that investment strategies can be applied, and that if fees are started, the returns from quantified transactions will be affected. Last month there are roughly 3% returns, and if fees are started, the level of returns will be terrible. & & rdquo;

三大猜想

/strang'

第三方托管平台可能出现

Possible appearance of a third-party hosting platform

由于监管层突然出手抑制比特币市场的投机行情，比特币因此迎来了新的拐点。从以往经验看，市场最担心的就是黑天鹅事件，无法预测，无法准备；2013年出现的黑天鹅事件，不仅结束了一轮牛市行情，而且重创了整个行业。

Bitcoin has taken a new turn as a result of a sudden regulatory effort to curb speculation in the Bitcoin market. From past experience, the market’s greatest concern is the black swan, which is unpredictable and unprepared; and the black swan, which occurred in 2013, not only ended the cattle market but also hit the industry hard.

2013年12月5日下午3点39分，中国人民银行联合工信部、银监会、证监会和保监会印发了《关于防范比特币风险的通知》，央行明确了比特币为“网络虚拟商品”，而不是货币。同时《通知》规定，金融机构与支付机构不得开展与比特币相关的业务。从12月5日到10日，五个交易日，国内比特币跌幅超过23%，国际比特币跌幅超过25%。这是中国政府第一次对比特币正式表态，此前多家支持比特币支付的商家纷纷表示不再支持比特币业务。随后加拿大、法国、韩国等多国政府也出台措施否定比特币的合法地位。但是通知界定比特币是一种虚拟商品，等于变相承认了比特币交易的合法化，并未对比特币彻底封杀，对比特币行业长远发展也有一定的益处。

On 5 December 2013, at 3.39 p.m., the China People’s Bank’s Joint Department of Trade and Communications, the Silver Monitoring Board, the Certification Supervisory Board and the Insurance Commission issued a Notice on Protection against Bitcoin Risk, which the Central Bank identified as “ Internet virtual goods & & rdquo; and not currency. At the same time, the Circular stipulated that financial institutions and payment agencies should not conduct operations related to Bitcoin. On 5-10 December, five trading days, the country’s Bitcoin fell by more than 23% and the international Bitcoin by more than 25%.

针对今年比特币市场的变化，京深两地三家公司的高管都不约而同地表示，“今年是比特币监管元年”，“最大的黑天鹅事件就是监管政策的不确定性。”

In response to this year’s changes in the Bitcoin market, the tops of three companies in two different parts of the country say the same thing: & & & & & & & & & & & & & & ; & the biggest black swan event is the uncertainty of regulatory policy. & & & rdqua ;

业内预测，从保护交易者的角度出发，第三方托管平台可能出现。据了解，央行约谈交易平台负责人头天晚上，已经向多位专业人士征询过比特币管理意见。另有灵通消息称，监管层最近将在京召集专业人士讨论比特币管理，或设立第三方托管平台。目前国内三大交易平台火币网、币行和比特币中国都没有第三方机构托管，一旦比特币平台跑路，玩家将无处申诉。据悉，监管层已经意识到这个问题，而设立第三方托管平台之后，玩家的安全会多一层保障。

Intra-industry predictions suggest that a third-party hosting platform may emerge from the perspective of protecting traders. It is understood that the central bank interviewed the head of the trading platform the previous night and consulted a number of professionals on the management of Bitcoin.

在采访中，资深人士表示，监管层对比特币的态度并非最严厉，属于“宽松又略有模糊的态度”。同时他们表示，中国还将继续成为比特币的主力，“我们一直都是”。

In interviews, senior sources said that the regulatory level of Bitcoin was not the toughest and belonged to “ that the loose and slightly vague attitude was & & & rdquao; and that China would continue to be the dominant force of Bitcoin, & & & & & & & ; we were always & & & & ;

区块链技术或引发市场巨变

block chain technology or triggers major market changes

今年比特币市场被格外看好的则是区块链技术。不止一位业内人士认为，区块链在今年会有超乎寻常的发展机会。

This year's Bitcoin market has been particularly popular with block chain technology. More than one industrialist has argued that block chains will have extraordinary development opportunities this year.

ROCKMINER(小强矿机)联合创始人林志鹏（Alex）甚至为黑天鹅事件进行了排序，“排在第一的是政策，政策对BTC并不是很欢迎；但是对区块链很欢迎，一个是产品一个是技术，它们受到的待遇不一样。第二则是比特币在技术上的突破”。林志鹏强调，“区块链肯定有落地的项目，就是企业或政府可以真正用的；而且我们国家很有可能走在最前面。”

ROCKMINER, the co-founder of the Little Power Miner, even sorted the Black Swan incident, “ first, the policy, which is not very popular with BTC; but very popular with block chains, one of which is a product and technology, is treated differently. The second is Bitcoin's technological breakthrough & rdquo; & ldquo; Lin Chiquo stresses that there must be landline projects that companies or governments can actually use; and that our country is likely to be at the forefront. & & rdquao;

今年1月18日，美联储主席耶伦首谈“区块链技术”，称对全球金融系统至关重要。耶伦称，“区块链是一种非常重要的新技术，可以对整个金融系统中的交易处理方式带来重要影响。我们正在研究这种技术可以为我们目前正在使用的技术带来哪些可能性，并且许多金融机构也正在研究这种技术。区块链技术可以为全球交易清算和结算方式带来巨变。”

On January 18 this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jessen spoke of & ldquo; block chain technology & & rdquo; and called it vital to the global financial system. According to Yale, & & & & & block chain is a very important new technology that can have an important impact on the way transactions are handled throughout the financial system. We are looking at the possibilities that this technology can bring to the technology that we are currently using, and many financial institutions are looking at it. Block chain technology can bring about dramatic changes in the way global transactions are settled and settled. & & rdquao;

区块链作为当前国际、国内的焦点技术之一，已成为各行各业突破再造的新风口。在去年10月出台的我国首个官方指导文件《中国区块链技术和应用发展白皮书（2016）》中，分析了包含金融、供应链、文化娱乐、智能制造、社会公益、教育就业等多个应用场景的技术应用，金融被定义为区块链技术的第一个应用领域，具体体现在支付、资管、证券、清结算以及用户身份识别等多个细分场景。

As one of the current international and domestic focus technologies, block chains have become a new entry point for all sectors. In our first official guidance document, China’s White Paper on Block Chain Technology and Applied Development (2016), issued last October, technology applications were analysed covering a number of applications, including finance, supply chains, cultural entertainment, intelligent manufacturing, social goods, education and employment, and finance was defined as the first area of application of block chain technology, in the form of payment, management, securities, clearing and user identification.

在1月17日的达沃斯论坛上，中国与25国发起全球区块链商业理事会。另据了解，各地相继成立区块链研究机构和联盟组织，目前国内相关机构和组织已有不少于10家。

At the Davos Forum on 17 January, China and 25 countries launched the Global Block Chain Business Council.

比特币价格预计将破2000美元

The price of

在涉及比特币价格的预测时，受访的高管们不置可否，连预测的空间都不愿详谈，只表示，大趋势震荡向上。一位不愿透露姓名的高管称，“更多的市场应用将成为比特币价格向上突破的推手”。

When it comes to the forecast of bitcoin prices, the top managers interviewed do not want to talk about it, even the space in which it is forecasted, but simply say that the big trend is going up. One of the top managers, &ldquao, is not willing to reveal his name; more market applications will be the pusher for the upturn in bitcoin prices & rdquao;

今年1月中旬，丹麦盛宝银行预测称，2017年加密数字货币比特币的价格将翻3倍，达到2100美元。比特币在2016年成为资本市场最有投资价值的标的，从2016年初的400美元，然后涨至900美元附近，曾经一度突破1000美元。

In mid-January, the Danish Bank of Shenbao predicted that the price of the encrypted digital currency Bitcoin would triple to $2,100 in 2017. Bitcoin became the capital market’s most investment value in 2016, from $400 at the beginning of 2016, and then went up close to $900, a one-time breakthrough of $1,000.

盛宝银行在报告中称，美国下届政府预计将会推行大规模财政刺激政策，这无疑会推动美国经济快速增加，并导致通胀率大幅飙升，美联储将被迫加快加息的步伐，那么美元指数也会跟着继续快速走强！其首席经济学家Steen Jakobsen称，不断走强的美元肯定会受到许多国外投资者的追捧。这也会在新兴市场引起多米诺效应，并导致全球范围内的投资者寻找一些非央行发行的货币。

The Bank reports that the next US government is expected to launch a massive fiscal stimulus policy, which will undoubtedly boost the US economy’s rapid growth and lead to a sharp rise in inflation, and that the Fed will be forced to accelerate the rate of interest hikes, so that the dollar index will continue to grow fast. According to its chief economist, Stephen Jakobsen, the strong dollar will certainly be won by many foreign investors.

他还称，比特币作为目前全球最大加密货币肯定会受益的。“因此，我们认为比特币今年将从目前的价位涨至2100美元的水平。”

He also said that Bitcoin would certainly benefit from being the largest encoded currency in the world today. & ldquo; so we think that bitcoin will rise from its current level of $2,100 this year. & rdquo;

雷吉·米德尔顿是区块链公司Veritaseum的创始人，他将比特币与黄金进行类比时认为，对于普通人来说，用1000美元来买一个比特币似乎太贵了，但是目前比特币市值仅仅是160多亿美元，而市面上所有黄金的总值达到近7万亿美元，一旦比特币得到广泛普及，其市值达到1万亿美元是不足为奇的。未来十年或二十年内，币价很可能达到10万美元。拿好你手中的币，2017年比特币价格或许能够达到2000美元。

Reggie & Middot; Midton was the founder of Veritaseem, a block chain company, who compared bitcoin to gold, arguing that it would seem too expensive for ordinary people to buy a bitcoin at $1,000, but currently Bitcoin has a market value of just over $16 billion, while all gold on the market has a total value of nearly $7 trillion, and it is not surprising that it will reach $1 trillion once it is widely available. In the next 10 or 20 years, the currency is likely to reach $100,000. Take your money, the price of the bitcoins in 2017 might reach $2,000.

记者手记