近一个月，以太坊的暴跌行情一直处于币圈的话题中心，面对今日的价格惨状，很多人开始怀念起2月份时候的以太坊，那段时间正值以太坊暴涨时期，其币价在二月初更是接近了1000美元，为无数投资者带来了丰厚的收益。但时至今日，以太坊的价格已经跌破了300美元，市值更是蒸发了数百亿美元！这让很多人开始怀疑，以太坊是否能够安全地度过这个熊市，不少媒体甚至传出了"以太坊要凉"的言论。而近日的一个利好消息，则让以太坊的投资者们重新燃起了希望，因为它可能让ETH重回1000美元的巅峰。
In the last month, when Ether was in the middle of the currency debate, and faced with today’s price turmoil, many began to miss Ether in February, when the price of the currency was close to $1,000 at the beginning of February, bringing abundant returns to numerous investors. But today, the price of Ether was $300, and the value of the market evaporated by tens of billions of dollars.
8月30日，据国外媒体报道，芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE，美国最大的期权交易所) 事业开发部的负责人表示，将在2018年年底推出以太坊（ETH）期货，而很多人认为以太坊期货的出现，将改变以太坊低迷的市场现状，甚至带来一波暴涨行情！那么问题来了，以太坊期货是什么呢？
On 30 August, according to foreign media reports, the head of the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE, the largest options exchange in the United States) Department of Enterprise Development stated that Ether’s futures would be launched by the end of 2018, and that many believed that the advent of Ether’s futures would change the current state of Ether’s depressed market and even lead to a wave of surges.
先来了解一下期货的含义，,期货(Futures)是与现货相对的金融商品，但两者的不同点是，现货是一手交钱一手交货的商品，而期货不是"货"，它是以某种大众产品如棉花、大豆、石油等及金融资产如股票、债券等为标的标准化可交易合约，即期货合约。此次芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)推出的以太坊期货，是以ETH价格指数为标准的标准化合约，它通常是以ETH来进行交易。
The difference between futures, which are financial goods relative to spot goods, and futures, which are not "goods", is a standard tradable contract, or futures contract, based on some popular product, such as cotton, soybeans, oil, and financial assets, such as stocks, bonds, etc.. The Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOE) introduced a standard contract based on the ETH Price Index, which is usually traded with ETH.
划重点地来看，期货是传统交易所二级市场的一种产物，它是一个被各国政府承认并且在全球具有巨大购买人群的产品，而一直不被政府机构承认的以太坊与它结合后，不但间接的拥有了合法性，同时也为大量资金开出了购买ETH的合法渠道！对此，加密货币交易技术公司SFOX的一位主管则直接表示："ETH期货的上市，将使加密货币交易商能够同时持有以太坊的多头和空头头寸，这也是向可接受的资产类别迈出的重要一步。有了这一点，我认为这个新的投资机会可以将加密货币市场从低迷的行情中解救出来，甚至化熊市为牛市！"
Focusedly, futures are a product of the traditional exchange's second-tier market, a product that is recognized by governments and has a large global purchasing population, and that has been combined with it by the Ethers, which have not been recognized by government agencies, not only indirectly has legitimacy, but has also opened up legal channels for the purchase of ETH for large amounts of money. In response, a director of the crypto-currency trading technology firm SFOX said directly: "The listing of ETH futures will enable the crypto-money traders to hold multiple and empty positions simultaneously in Tai's futures, and it will also be an important step towards acceptable asset classes.
除此之外，还有人提到去年比特币能登上2万美元的价格巅峰，正是因为比特币期货的出现。
In addition, mention was made of the fact that Bitcoin had been able to peak at $20,000 last year, precisely because of the arrival of bitcoin futures.
2017年12月10日，当芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）正式推出了比特币期货交易时，比特币就开始了令人咂舌的涨价变化。比如说比特币期货推出当天，比特币价格就立刻暴涨了3000美元，很快比特币的价格就涨到了新高度，并在20000美元关口徘徊了数天，那时每天的上涨幅度甚至高达数千美元。面对这些匪夷所思的变化，日本经济学家Yukio Noguchi给出了一个解释"在比特币期货推出后，比特币价格的快速上涨并不是巧合，它与资产期货市场引入的交易行为保持着高度一致。"
On December 10, 2017, when the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE) officially introduced the Bitcoin futures deal, Bitcoin began to make a dramatic price increase. For example, on the day of the introduction of the Bitcoin futures, the price of Bitcoins immediately jumped by $3,000, and soon the price of Bitcoins rose to new heights and hovered for days at the 2000 threshold, when it rose by even thousands of dollars a day. In the face of these preposterous changes, Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi gave an explanation that "it was not a coincidence that the price of Bitcoins rose rapidly after the introduction of the Bitcoins futures, and that it was highly consistent with the transactions introduced in the asset futures market."
因此，这部分人坚信以太坊期货推出后，ETH将复制去年BTC的暴涨！
So this part of the population is convinced that after the launch of the Taiwan futures, ETH will replicate last year's BTC boom!
但并不是人人都对以太坊期货持着看好的态度，一位华尔街的分析师则提出了自己不同的看法。华尔街市场策略和行业研究公司Fundstrat的创始人Tom Lee，近日向媒体表示：以太坊期货的推出对于以太坊来说并不是一件好事，它的推出很可能会导致ETH价格的暴跌，因为以太坊期货的推出将为以太坊看跌人士提供一种简便的做空途径。除此之外，该分析师还提到了去年比特币期货带来的"后遗症"：自去年12月份比特币期货上线后，比特币的价格就开始下跌，现在比特币价格相较于2017年年底的最高点，下跌幅度超过了60%，而以太坊期货的推出，则很有可能让ETH步比特币暴跌的后尘。
Tom Lee, founder of the Wall Street Market Strategy and Industry Research Company Fundstrat, recently stated to the press that the introduction of the Tai Spot is not a good thing for the Ether, and that its roll-out is likely to lead to a sharp drop in ETH prices, because the introduction of the Tai Spot will provide an easy way for those who look down. In addition, the analyst referred to the "refuge" of last year's Bitcoin futures: the price of Bitcoin began to decline since its arrival last December, and now the price of Bitcoin is more than 60% below its peak at the end of 2017.
其实，无论是以太坊还是以太坊期货，大家如此关注并热衷参与，无非是想在区块链浪潮中获取红利，但第一个螃蟹的人并不是你想象中的那么好当，其附的带风险很多普通人根本就没法承受。普通人若在区块链浪潮中获取红利，大可不必选择炒币这条高风险的路子，区块链目前尚且处于发展初期，更多变现快、风险低的项目在不断涌现，它们也更适合普通人。
In fact, neither Ether nor Ether's futures are as concerned and eager to participate as they are to reap dividends in the chain wave, but the first crab is not as good as you think, and the risks associated with it are too many ordinary people to bear. If ordinary people get dividends in the chain wave, they are less likely to have to choose a high-risk path, the chain is still in the early stages of development, and more fast-changing, low-risk projects are emerging, and they are more suitable for ordinary people.
比如说国内出现的，基于区块链技术打造的一种共生经济模式，它让普通人更容易抓住区块链浪潮的红利。互联网时代，流量、数据为王，互联网巨头公司靠着这两样东西获利无数，但数据、流量的产生者——广大用户却没能得到分毫收益。而且时至今日，市场逐渐饱和，互联网产品的获客成本变得越来越高，有些公司即使砸下大笔推广费，结果依旧收效甚微，而以区块链技术打造的共生经济模式则改变了这个困局。
Domesticly, for example, a symbiotic economic model based on block chain technology has made it easier for ordinary people to capture the dividends of the wave of block chains. In the Internet age, traffic, data, and Internet giants have profited countlessly from both, but the producers of data and traffic – the vast majority of users – have not reaped a fraction of the benefits.
在该模式的影响下，互联网公司无需再漫无目的的砸推广费，而用户也能变现自己的数据价值。以国内的时间链APP为例，它利用区块链技术重塑了互联网流量行为价值，即互联网产品（微信、抖音等APP）能在时间链APP平台上购买Token（代币），然后时间链APP会根据用户使用行为分发给用户，让用户获取收益。简单来说，就是互联网公司把产品的推广费，转化成数字货币的形式，每当用户在时间链APP里使用这些产品时（诸如聊微信、刷抖音等），就将获得相应的数字货币奖励，这些数字货币可以直接兑换成现金，也能在APP内置商城里购买商品，使人们成功变现了自己的个人数据价值。
Under the influence of this model, an Internet company does not have to spend any more of its purposeless roll-out fees, and users can realize their data values. For example, using the domestic time chain APP technology, it reshapes the value of Internet flow behaviour by using the block chain technology, i.e., Internet products (micro-temperatures, tremors, etc.) can buy Token (deputies) on the time chain APP platform, and then the time chain APP can be distributed to users, depending on user behaviour. Simply put, the Internet company converts the extension costs of its products into digital currency, and whenever users use them in the time chain APP (e.g. micro-mails, shuffling, etc.), it will receive a corresponding digital monetary incentive, which can be converted directly into cash, and can buy goods in the city of the APP, making it successful in realizing its personal data value.
对于以太坊期货的两种看法，大家更认同哪一种呢？
Which of the two views of Etherpane futures would be more agreeable?
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